Investment Rating - The report suggests a dovish outlook for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with expectations of interest rate cuts resuming in September, totaling 125 basis points through March of the following year [1]. Core Insights - The minutes from the June FOMC meeting are anticipated to align more closely with dovish statements from Fed officials rather than the neutral tone expressed by Chair Powell during the press conference [1]. - Recent strong job reports have made an immediate rate cut unlikely, but a shift towards a dovish stance has been observed among Fed officials, indicating potential cuts in the near future [7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the uncertainty regarding economic outlook has decreased, which may lead to a consensus among committee members to support a rate cut by September [9]. Summary by Sections Economic Conditions - Three months of sub-target core PCE inflation have contributed to a more dovish sentiment among Fed officials, with some shifting from hawkish to supportive of rate cuts [6][7]. - Chair Powell's previous openness to a July cut was curtailed by strong job numbers, reinforcing the expectation of a September cut instead [8]. FOMC Meeting Insights - The language from the May FOMC meeting minutes will be revised to reflect decreased uncertainty and an expectation for more data collection over the summer [9]. - The report notes that while some officials maintain hawkish views, the majority expect to lower policy rates before the end of the year [11].

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Labor Market Trends - The labor market has been cooling for many months [1][2] - June 2025 saw the lowest private sector employment in a long time, with government hiring, particularly at the state level, being unusually high [2] - Employers are being cautious due to tariff threats, leading to a hold on current workforce and limited growth in private sector employment [9][10] AI Impact on Employment - 58% of employees are investing in AI, but a large percentage of their employees aren't sure that they're really ready to jump into it [4] - AI, particularly GenAI, is being used for tasks related to content, communication, and coding [5] - GenAI has a visible impact on employment levels in coding, with software programmers experiencing higher unemployment [6] Hiring Outlook - Manpowergroup Employment Outlook survey expects hiring to increase 24% year-over-year in Q3 [7] - A strong hiring number would be 3,840%, while a weak number would be 10% [8] - The 24% net hiring outlook reflects a solid labor market, but tariff threats are causing employers to hold back [8][9]

Employment in the mental health industry has grown at a rapid pace since 2020, thanks in part to federal grants funding training programs to expand and improve the workforce https://t.co/LRBCVy4Qwr ...

Australian business conditions jumped as sales, profitability and employment surged while confidence also climbed https://t.co/ZmZBIxBMaE ...

Would You Go Back To Your Ex-Employer? https://t.co/r37NkEqn7d https://t.co/gKfi2Z9Kfb ...

First, let's get some breaking uh economic data just crossed. Rick Santelli has that for us. Rick.Yes. And there's a lot of it. If we look at the factory orders, durable goods, let's start there.Factory orders for May up 8.2%. Up 8.2%. I have five years here. I don't have a higher number. That is a huge number.And that follows a slightly revised minus 3.7% that moves to minus 3.9%. We started out the year in single digits. It certainly seems though this is telling us that all the trade pulled forward may in ...

US Jobs Report June 2025: Live News on Employment, Payrolls https://t.co/7Y8BUyPlUT ...

Forecasters anticipate a monthly report on US employment will show slower hiring and the highest unemployment rate since 2021 as the Trump administration’s trade and immigration policy shifts start to leave an imprint https://t.co/bWU5uDfHjD ...

Employment at US companies fell in June for the first time in more than two years, reflecting a drop in services payrolls that may raise concerns about a more pronounced labor market slowdown: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/VH4tHVAhg9 ...