There is no win. There is no value. Uh there is no savings by continuing this government shutdown. Let's just end it. >> Senator, do you think there's a lack of trust between Democrats and right now? >> We want to try to to move appropriations bills through, right? But uh if you're if you're a Democrat, you're looking at it and you're saying, "Why why am I going to try to be helpful if if uh Mr. . vote at OM is just going to do a a backdoor move and resend what we've been working on. So, yeah, there's a lac ...

I want to bring in Delaware Democratic Senator Chris Coons. It's good to see you, Senator. Look, uh, House Speaker Mike Johnson, you heard, um, says this could be the longest shutdown in US history.So, what's the Democrat's strategy now. Is it just to sit tight and hope that Republicans crack. Is it going to take Americans feeling an almost unbearable amount of pain before this gets done.Well, Chris, there's already a huge amount of pain coming to American families as a result of President Trump's so-called ...

Core Insights - Traders on prediction platforms are betting that the federal government shutdown will extend into next month, with a significant portion expecting it to last over 40 days [1][4][5] - The trading volume on these prediction markets is substantial, exceeding $8.1 million, indicating strong interest and speculation among traders [4] - The current government shutdown began on October 7, affecting federal workers in nonessential roles, and historically, such shutdowns are temporary [9][11] Prediction Market Insights - On Kalshi, traders assign a 65% probability that the shutdown will last until October 31, with 52% betting it will extend just over 36 days [1] - Approximately 44% of traders anticipate the shutdown will exceed 40 days, while 100% of traders on Polymarket expect it to last at least until October 15 [4][5] - The largest group of traders, about 26%, is betting that the shutdown will continue until November 16 [7] Historical Context - The U.S. government has experienced 20 shutdowns since 1976, with the most recent and longest one lasting 34 days due to a funding dispute over Trump's border wall [11][12]

Group 1: Tariffs and Market Sentiment - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs has caused market volatility, with a potential effective date of November 1, indicating a strategic use of tariffs as a bargaining tool for a final deal [1] - The current effective tariff rate is lower than expected, with August's realized tariff at approximately 9.3%, suggesting that the impact on consumer spending may be manageable rather than catastrophic [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates at the October 29 meeting, influenced by the government shutdown and tariff situation, with market pricing leaning towards easing [3] - The delayed release of the September CPI data may affect the Fed's decision-making, but favorable numbers are anticipated [3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and AI Spending - Prolonged government shutdown risks souring consumer sentiment, with only a 52% chance of resolution by the end of October, potentially leading to reduced spending [2] - Despite concerns, AI capital expenditures are strong and steady, providing a counterbalance to other economic uncertainties [2] Group 4: Credit Market Dynamics - Increased chatter in the credit market indicates potential issues in private credit, but high-yield spreads remain stable, suggesting that current concerns may be idiosyncratic rather than systemic [5] Group 5: Gold and Cryptocurrency Trends - Gold's price surge towards $4,000 is attributed to central bank buying and momentum flows, while Bitcoin's volatility indicates it is not yet a reliable hedge asset [6] - A recommendation for investors is to maintain a small allocation in gold or a mix of gold and major cryptocurrencies, while equities should remain the primary investment focus [7]

This post originally appeared in the Business Insider Today newsletter. You can sign up for Business Insider's daily newsletter here. Welcome back! Sora has at least one big fan: Mark Cuban. He gave users on the app permission to use his likeness. He spoke to BI about why he did it, and why it's good for business. In today's big story, earnings season is upon us, with big banks up first. But can earnings reports fill the gap left from the lack of data due to the government shutdown? What's on deck Ma ...

Mario, we've got the shutdown as well that we're balancing just as we have for the past now 13 days. The House is out. The Senate is out.The Senate will be back tomorrow, but it probably won't matter. Yes, absolutely. And so to go to some of the scheduling that we're seeing coming out of the Middle East and obviously the president has priorities and pressing matters back stateside as well with this shutdown going into its 13th day, nearly two weeks now.The president has floated trying to make sure that Nati ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant selloff on Friday due to tariff commentary, impacting the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but showed signs of recovery over the weekend as optimism returned [2][3] - Key technical levels were breached, with the S&P 500 breaking its 20-day moving average and E-Mini S&P futures hitting the 50-day moving average [2] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 13th day, with the market currently discounting its effects, although concerns about labor market impacts and federal worker payments are rising [8][9] - The CPI report is expected to be released on October 24th, which is crucial for social security adjustments, but there is uncertainty regarding the jobs data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy [12][14] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices dipped below $60 per barrel for the first time since May, influenced by US-China tensions and geopolitical issues, indicating potential economic slowing [13][14] - Despite rising gasoline demand, concerns persist regarding China's reduced oil imports and OPEC's potential quota increases, which could further pressure prices [15][16] - A bounce back in oil prices is anticipated, but the current volume and price action suggest a cautious outlook, with potential supply shocks if favorable monetary policies are enacted [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Stocks are facing a significant test as investors navigate uncertainties stemming from a potential government shutdown and renewed concerns over tariffs [1] Group 1 - Investors are currently experiencing confusion due to the looming threat of a government shutdown this month [1] - Fresh fears regarding tariffs have added to the volatility in the market, impacting investor sentiment [1]

You can catch Warrior Money on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. Your paycheck may stall, but your plan shouldn’t. On Warrior Money, Patrick Murphy and Dan Kunze outline exactly what to do now: lock down your “four walls,” freeze non-essential spending, and call lenders early while tracking cash flow tightly. They highlight stopgaps like USAA and PenFed interest-free paycheck advances, urge vets to loop in congressional caseworkers for stalled VA claims, and key nuanc ...

Before I let you go, former Vice President uh Harris is on a national book tour right now. Her book 107 Days. She has some sharp words for some Democrats, including yourself.She writes that while she admired you greatly when she was considering you for her running mate. Quote, he also hadn't yet had an o blank moment in his relatively short political career. I wasn't sure how he would cope with the kind of garbage Trump would throw at him.I realized that I couldn't afford to test Mark Kelly in that ugly gri ...