Core Insights - The CNBC Fed survey reveals significant disagreement among respondents regarding the Federal Reserve's actions and the implications of President Trump's influence on Fed independence [2][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - 97% of respondents expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, but only 41% believe this is the appropriate action [2][5] - 41% of respondents think a 50 basis point cut is warranted, while 28% believe the Fed should not cut rates at all [5] - The current year-end funds rate for 2025 is projected at 3.6%, down 30 basis points from the previous survey, with a further drop to 3.13% for 2026 [6] Group 2: Concerns Over Fed Independence - 82% of respondents believe President Trump is attempting to limit or eliminate Federal Reserve independence, with 41% indicating a desire to limit it and another 41% wanting to eliminate it [3][4] - 68% believe that these presidential actions will lead to higher inflation, while 57% think it will result in higher unemployment [4] - 74% of respondents anticipate a lower value of the US dollar as a consequence of these actions [5] Group 3: Future Fed Leadership - Among the 29 respondents, 45% believe President Trump will appoint Chris Waller as the next Fed Chair, while 24% favor Worsh and 17% favor Hasset [13] - The process for selecting the next Fed Chair is described as transparent, with the Treasury Secretary actively interviewing potential candidates [17][18] - The survey indicates a growing interest in the implications of Fed leadership on future policy decisions [15]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]

Before we discuss what the Fed will do, we need to have a discussion about the conflict on interest rates between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Both think interest rates are very important, but they both have very different points of view.For everything else you need to know ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, keep reading for more from three of our top market analysts.But perhaps our uneasy monetary policymakers, their shoulders preemptively bent under the weight of history’s judgment, can take so ...

Black unemployment is rising quickly — and is once again twice the rate for White Americans — due to a slowing job market and Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce https://t.co/I59gZGUIy8 ...

RT Gwart (@GwartyGwart)Every few months one guy without a job asks a bunch of people on the internet without jobs how much money they would need to keep not having a job. Confoundingly, that number seems to be 10 million US dollars. They argue for about 2 days and then all go back to not having a job ...

Economic Projections - Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth [1] - Population growth is anticipated to be significantly lower due to immigration changes, impacting jobs numbers [2][3][4] - Labor supply is falling dramatically, with population numbers expected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next 10 years, and approximately 1 million fewer this year alone [4] Impact of Policies - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while slowing immigration and tariffs are having a negative impact [3] - Tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down the economy, affecting both businesses and households [3] - Tariffs put in place since January 20th are projected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, consisting of $33 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] Uncertainty and Assumptions - There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy due to changing policies and tariffs [8] - CBO follows the administration's actions day by day and assumes that current policies will continue indefinitely [9] - CBO expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between now and the end of January [14] - CBO updates its forecast a few times a year, and inflation since January has been a bit higher than expected [20]

The economy took another hit this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report showing that consumer prices were up 2.9% in August from a year earlier. On top of that, revised numbers show that the US added almost a million fewer jobs than previously reported over the 12-month period ending in March. Should be pointed out that most of that period was during the Biden administration. And yet, President Trump continues to insist that all is well with the economy. In a post on Truth Social, he declar ...

The CBO now expects higher inflation and unemployment this year and slower economic growth, after taking into account Trump’s tax law, tariffs and lower net immigration https://t.co/fgp8YwEKhh ...

America's labor market is showing serious cracks. Hiring has cooled off, layoffs are climbing, and those help wanted signs are quietly disappearing from storefronts across the country. So, is this the start of a recession that will crush markets.Or is it just the kind of economic hiccup that brings the rate cuts everyone has been begging for without triggering a full-blown panic. Today, we're cutting through the economic noise and breaking down what this labor wobble actually means for your portfolio. My na ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights concerns regarding the U.S. economy's long-term competitiveness, particularly in science, technology, and education, especially in comparison to China's investments in these areas [6][7][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is viewed as the most impressive globally, but there are significant areas to monitor, particularly the investment in education and technology [5][6]. - The current economic environment suggests that stocks are generally fully priced, with less margin for error if economic conditions do not meet expectations [19][20]. Investment Concerns - There is a notable slowdown in business investment, particularly in equipment and AI-related categories, which could impact GDP growth in the second half of the year [21][22]. - The potential for profit margin erosion due to tariffs and the impact of inventory adjustments may lead to cost increases and supply chain disruptions [14][15]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of concern, with a stagnant labor force size affecting unemployment rates and overall economic health [16][17]. - A significant portion of PhD holders in critical fields such as medicine and engineering are immigrants, which underscores the importance of immigration policies and domestic education quality [11][12].