Before when we were bringing you on uh we were talking to you about some of that delayed data that's coming up later today. The October November jobs report. The combination of that we're looking at potentially the estimate at least 50,000 jobs added unemployment ticking up to 4 and a.5% highest level since October of 2021.I want to ask you does that matter to the markets. Does it matter to the Fed when we know there's going to be a lot of twist and turns before that next Fed meeting. Well, there'll definit ...

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors anticipated key economic data releases, including the November nonfarm payrolls report, unemployment figures, and October retail sales [1][2] Economic Indicators - The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.168%, the 2-year Treasury yield decreased to 3.497%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield slid to 4.846% [1] - November nonfarm payrolls are projected to be 50,000, a significant drop from 119,000 in October [2] - The unemployment rate for November is expected to remain steady at 4.4% [3] - October retail sales are forecasted to increase by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in September [3] - The November Consumer Price Index report is anticipated to show a year-over-year inflation rise to 3.1% [3]

UK unemployment climbed to its highest level in almost five years and wage growth eased https://t.co/q8ielEK0jA ...

Core Insights - The upcoming hiring report is expected to confirm a cooling job market, with U.S. employers adding only 50,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest since 2021 [3][4][10] Economic Implications - The job report is anticipated to reveal a "frozen" job market, indicating limited hiring opportunities which could slow down the overall economy [6] - The report will combine data from October and November due to delays caused by the government shutdown, and it is expected to show a significant slowdown in job growth compared to previous months [7][10] Policy Impact - The data will reflect the effects of President Trump's economic policies, including uncertainty from proposed import taxes and strict immigration enforcement, which have led to reduced hiring and layoffs in certain sectors [8][9] - Economists suggest that the combination of policy shifts, demographic changes, and technological advancements like AI will contribute to slow payroll growth [9]

Getting some breaking news out of the Fed this morning. We'll turn to Steve Leeman with that who's also got a piece on the wires. Now, Steve, that's [music] uh pretty interesting.We'll get you the Williams headlines first, though. >> Yeah. John Williams, New York, Fed President, saying monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026.That is language the Fed chair used at the meeting recently that people took to say the Fed was on hold, but not entirely clear. This is where Williams is headed. He say ...

Core Insights - The primary concern for Americans impacting their voting decisions in the upcoming midterm elections is the affordability of everyday items such as food and fuel [1] - A significant portion of the population, approximately half, lives paycheck to paycheck, indicating a widespread sense of economic insecurity [3] - The debate surrounding healthcare affordability is crucial, with a warning that failure to address this issue could lead to political repercussions for both parties [5] Economic Context - One-third of Americans are unable to afford an unexpected healthcare cost of $5,000, highlighting the severity of financial strain [4] - The perception of affordability is more relevant to the average American than technical economic terms like inflation, which are not commonly used in everyday discussions [2][6] - The rising costs of essential items, including healthcare, food, and fuel, are perceived as a crisis rather than a mere concern [4][7] Political Implications - There is a growing distrust among the public towards government solutions for healthcare, with a preference for alternatives outside of traditional political frameworks [11][12] - The messaging from political parties needs to shift towards acknowledging public concerns and providing tangible solutions rather than engaging in blame politics [16] - The current political landscape suggests that Democrats may narrowly retain control of the House, but failure to effectively address healthcare could jeopardize their position in the Senate [17][19]

Global Economy & Central Banks - US and European futures are gaining ahead of central bank decisions [1][49] - The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [3][96] - The Bank of Japan is expected to move rates higher to 075% [26][96] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 417%, and the Euro-dollar is at 117% [4][50] - The market is pricing in slightly over two rate cuts by 2026 [92] Geopolitics & Security - Australia is considering tougher gun laws after a terrorist attack that killed 16 people [1][5][48][65] - Ukraine may drop its bid for NATO membership in return for Western security guarantees [1][48] - The EU is considering seizing or monetizing Russian assets to fund Ukraine [18] Market & Industry Trends - Asian stocks are under pressure, tracking losses from the US session, with concerns around AI investment [20][21] - China's retail sales are up 13% year-over-year, below estimates, indicating economic weakness [22] - China has built seven large petrochemical hubs, raising fears of oversupply and pressure on other nations [40] - European defense sector is interesting due to potential pullback on Russia-Ukraine discussions, but NATO demands higher defense spending [63][64] Artificial Intelligence - PolyAI raised $86 million in Series D funding for its conversational AI voice agents [70] - PolyAI's voice AI agents can handle tasks equivalent to over 1000 full-time employees for individual customers [73] - PolyAI claims to deliver approximately $10 million of value per client, totaling almost $15 billion for 250 customers [75][76] - PolyAI's annual recurring revenue was just over $20 million last year, with a goal to double this year [83]

How To Survive The Holidays While Unemployed https://t.co/VV11bTPADo ...

Core Views - The Federal Reserve's policy committee members expressed differing opinions on interest rates, reflecting internal divisions and the complexity of balancing inflation control with employment stability [1][5][8] Interest Rate Perspectives - Beth Hammack advocates for maintaining higher interest rates longer to combat inflation above the 2% target [2][6] - Austan Goolsbee believes rates could significantly decrease next year but opposed the recent rate cut due to insufficient data [2][10] - Anna Paulson perceives current interest rate policy as restrictive and prioritizes concerns about the labor market over inflation [7][8] Economic Implications - The Fed's challenge lies in determining whether current interest rates are "restrictive" or "neutral," with Hammack suggesting a preference for a slightly more restrictive stance to pressure inflation [6][8] - The job market is under strain, partly due to tariff-related disruptions, raising concerns about potential unemployment waves [5][8] Recent Developments - The comments from Fed officials followed a "blackout period" where public discussions on interest rates were restricted, highlighting the ongoing debate within the committee [3] - Goolsbee's dissent during the recent vote to cut rates indicates a split in the committee's approach, with some members advocating for a cautious stance until more economic data is available [9][10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates for the third consecutive time this year, committing to purchase $40 billion of Treasury bills per month, amidst rising credit risk and AI spending fatigue [1][2][3] - There is a consensus that further rate cuts will depend on labor market weakness or inflation improvement, with inflation remaining a significant concern [3][4][5] - The market's expectations for rate cuts differ from the Fed's dot plot, indicating a potential disconnect between market predictions and Fed policy [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic surprises suggest the possibility of weaker data than expected, impacting the Fed's decision-making process [4][6] - The labor market shows signs of potential improvement, but inflation remains a critical issue, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation [8][9] - Predictions indicate one more rate cut next year, contingent on labor market data [9][10] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market is experiencing increased issuance, with expectations of record primary volumes in 2026, driven by elevated maturities and M&A activity [30][31] - High-quality credits are expected to dominate the market, with a significant increase in tech supply anticipated [32][33] - Despite potential pressure on spreads, the market is expected to absorb the increased supply without widespread disruption [34][35] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are leaning towards fixed income, with a focus on investment-grade securities and hybrids, while some analysts express caution regarding corporate credit [20][22] - The overall sentiment suggests that while fixed income has a role in portfolios, equities may present better growth opportunities [24][25] - The market is characterized by a constructive backdrop, with expectations of yield opportunities despite potential spread widening [35][39]