Monetary Policy Stance - Monetary policy is not on a preset course, decisions are based on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3] - The policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - With policy in restrictive territory, the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance [3] Economic Outlook & Risks - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside [1] - The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2]

Powell’s appearance is expected to provide insight into whether the Fed will slacken its monetary policy and cut interest rates, which have been held between 4.25% and 4.5% since December. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images) https://t.co/PXaEMRs7fn https://t.co/09gsh6yLOG ...

Anytime a member of the board is being personally attacked by the president, it does jeopardize the political independence of the Fed. That's for sure. What's a little bit tricky is that there are some actions taken by the board that require a simple majority. There are others that require a five vote supermajority.So the more seats Trump can claim, the more he can undertake certain actions uh including adjusting the discount rate which is decided by the board of governors rather than by the FOMC. And I thi ...

It's Jackson Hole time again, when leaders in monetary policy meet in Wyoming for the annual Fed symposium.On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, we got a chance to speak to Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid to discuss what's on the agenda for central bankers and academics https://t.co/qoGXjc1GMM ...

Powell’s appearance is expected to provide insight into whether the Fed will slacken its monetary policy and cut interest rates, which have been held between 4.25% and 4.5% since December. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images) https://t.co/dolHfCgPlP https://t.co/PYpUVFLiTu ...

What does this pressure campaign look like when it comes to the US position of global trust across the world economy. I think it's important for us not to look at this as an attack on one individual Fed governor, but an attack on an institution and the independence of the Federal Reserve has been, at its core, central to the confidence that investors around the world have in the U.S. economy. You know, in my old job, one of the things I did was be with investors in the United States, the people around the w ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - President Trump calls for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook amidst mortgage fraud allegations [1][2] - The potential firing of Lisa Cook is seen as part of Trump's broader effort to influence the Fed and push for lower interest rates [4][10] - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts by the end of the year, but concerns about inflation persist [14] - The Fed faces a difficult situation with conflicting signals from employment and inflation data [16] - The CME Group's Fed watch tool indicates around 80% probability of a September rate cut [12] Allegations Against Lisa Cook - Lisa Cook is accused of listing two different residences as her primary residence on mortgage applications [3][6] - The head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has referred the allegations to the Justice Department [2][3] - It is noted that there may be circumstances where listing two primary residences is permissible, such as co-signing for a dependent [3][7] Market Expectations & Fed's Stance - The market anticipates Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slightly open the door to a rate cut in September [13] - Recent weak jobs numbers and downward revisions to hiring in May and June could tilt the scales towards a rate cut [14] - The minutes from the recent FOMC meeting revealed that most Fed members remain focused on inflation [11][13] - Only two out of twelve Fed members indicated that the risks of lower employment outweigh those of inflation [12]

The Fed's next move is in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. When they chairman gets the committee together and has a big conversation about the future, The elephant in the room is the political pressure coming from the other side of Washington, D. C.More specifically, coming from the White House. This was the latest this morning. We've been tracking this story.The director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bill Pulte, is urging the attorney general, Pam Bondi, to investigate the Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market's pricing in an 80-90% chance of rate cuts in September is considered unlikely due to upcoming data releases [5] - The Fed's decision-making remains data-dependent, with upcoming inflation and employment reports being crucial [3][6] - There's a possibility of rate cuts later in the year, but the timing and magnitude are uncertain [4] - The Fed should be cautious about adopting a dovish tone, as it could lead to a resurgence of inflation [8] Inflation Outlook - Inflation pressures persist, particularly in sticky areas like services and housing [4][11] - The impact of tariffs implemented in August on inflation is yet to be fully realized [7][14] - The fourth quarter is expected to be a volatile period for inflation due to the delayed effects of tariffs [15] - Inflation is not considered a long-term issue, but volatility is expected over the next 6-9 months [13] Employment & Economic Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakening, which the Fed will need to consider [4][10] - The Fed needs to balance concerns about inflation with the employment picture [9][10]

Monetary Policy & Framework - The industry observes an odd timing for a major new framework announcement from the Fed, suggesting it should be addressed by the incoming chairman after consultation [1][2] - The industry notes the Fed's past errors leaned towards excessive transparency and forecasting, leading to iatrogenic volatility, and suggests fewer dot plots and forecasts [2][3] - The industry suggests a return to a more vague and oracular approach, similar to Volcker and Greenspan, given the current challenge of preventing high inflation expectations from becoming embedded [4][5] - The industry emphasizes the importance of symmetry with respect to inflation and learning from the previous framework's shortcomings [6] - The industry highlights the need for careful consideration of the management of the maturity structure of the federal debt, especially when the Treasury and the Fed have conflicting objectives [7] Inflation & Interest Rates - The industry acknowledges persistent inflation above the 2% target, yet markets anticipate a Fed rate cut in September [8] - The industry notes evidence of economic weakening is likely driving market expectations for a Fed rate ease [9] - The industry interprets the market's anticipation of a 25 basis point cut in September as a likelihood, with possibilities of 50 basis points or zero being equally likely [10] - The industry cautions against certainty about future actions, as data could push towards a 50 basis point cut or further delay [11] Economic & Geopolitical Considerations - The industry expresses surprise at the Treasury Secretary's prescriptive stance on monetary policy, suggesting a 175 basis point cut [12][13] - The industry suggests elevated deficit spending, data center spending, reduced trade deficits, and higher asset prices may be raising the net demand for funds, potentially increasing neutral interest rates [15] - The industry expresses disappointment that President Trump hasn't leveraged frozen Russian reserves to drive a just peace with Ukraine [17][18]