Sheinbaum’s plan to impose steep tariffs on Chinese imports has been delayed until at least December as opposition from Mexico’s private sector and members of the ruling party stalls congressional debate https://t.co/xvDRcqQi10 ...

Core Insights - Consumer spending showed a rebound in October, indicating a strong start for the retail sector in the fourth quarter, which is promising for the upcoming holiday season [1][6] Retail Performance - The CNBC NRF retail monitor reported a 0.6% increase in retail spending excluding auto and gas compared to a 0.7% decline in September, with a year-over-year rate decreasing to 5% from 5.4% [2] - Core retail measures, excluding restaurants, also saw a 0.6% increase from a 0.5% decline, with the year-over-year rate dropping to 4.9% from 5.7% [2] Economic Factors - NRF economists noted that consumer spending remains robust, supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, low unemployment rates, and positive wealth effects from strong stock market performance [3][8] - Despite high inflation and tariffs affecting consumer sentiment, nine out of twelve retail sectors experienced growth in October, particularly digital products (up 2%) and clothing and accessories (up 1.4%) [4] Sector Analysis - The only sectors showing negative performance included building and garden supplies (down 0.8%) and gas station sales, highlighting a mixed picture in retail [4][5] - There is a notable split in spending patterns between higher and lower-income consumers, with wealthier consumers potentially driving spending increases due to stock market gains [6][7] Future Outlook - The October performance is seen as a positive indicator for November and December, which are critical months for retail, with historical data suggesting that a good October can lead to strong holiday sales about 40% of the time [9][10]

Group 1: Q3 Earnings Overview - The Q3 earnings season has started positively, with 91% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, and analysts expect a 13.1% increase in earnings per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth [2][9] - Initial expectations were lower, with analysts predicting a 7.9% increase in earnings per share as of September 30 [3] - Companies have reported more positive earnings surprises (82%) than negative ones (18%), with 77% of companies also reporting positive revenue surprises [9] Group 2: Notable Company Earnings - Instacart reported GAAP earnings per share of $0.51, exceeding estimates of $0.50, with revenue of $939 million, surpassing expectations of $933 million [6] - Constellation Energy's stock fell nearly 6% after reporting GAAP earnings per share of $2.97, missing estimates of $3.05, although revenue of $6.57 billion exceeded expectations [12] - Wendy's reported revenue of $549 million, a 3% decline year-over-year but above estimates of $534 million, with earnings per share of $0.24 beating expectations of $0.20 [16][17] - Block's shares fell 15% after reporting earnings per share of $0.54 on revenue of $6.11 billion, missing estimates of $0.68 per share and $6.31 billion in revenue [23] - Airbnb's stock rose 5% as it reported 133.6 million nights booked, a 9% increase year-over-year, driven by international bookings [32][33] Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The earnings growth rate for Q3 is on track to increase from Q2, driven by tech enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and ongoing tariff concerns [10] - Consumer-facing companies are experiencing pressures from affordability and sentiment, with mentions of government shutdown impacts increasing [11] - Under Armour reported a net loss of $0.04 per share, with revenue declining 4.7% year-over-year, attributed to challenging consumer demand [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - Honda's downgrade of its full-year profit outlook highlights the immediate pressures from U.S. tariffs and global chip shortages, while also indicating deeper, long-term challenges due to intensifying competition in the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Financial Outlook - Honda has revised its full-year profit forecast downward, reflecting the impact of external pressures such as tariffs and supply chain issues [1] - The company faces significant challenges in maintaining profitability amid these pressures, which could affect its market position [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition, which poses a long-term threat to Honda's market share and profitability [1] - Global chip shortages are a critical issue affecting production capabilities across the industry, further complicating Honda's operational landscape [1]

Core Insights - Consumer spending rebounded in October after a decline in September, indicating a strong start for the retail sector in Q4 [2][6] - The retail monitor, based on credit card spending data, showed a 0.6% increase in retail sales excluding auto and gas, compared to a 0.7% decline in September [2][3] - Year-over-year growth rates for core retail sales decreased slightly, with a drop from 5.4% to 5% [3] Sector Performance - Most retail sectors experienced growth, with digital products leading at a 2% increase, followed by clothing and accessories at 1.4% [4] - Restaurants, beverages, and health and personal care sectors also performed well, while building and garden supplies saw a decline of 0.8% [5] Economic Context - Consumer spending remains robust, supported by wage growth exceeding inflation, low unemployment rates, and positive wealth effects from strong stock market performance [6] - Despite mixed economic data, October's performance is seen as a positive indicator for the upcoming holiday season, although historical correlations between October gains and holiday sales are weak [6] Challenges Ahead - Key concerns for the retail sector include the impact of goods inflation, tariffs, and early signs of a cooling job market on holiday shopping [7] - The ongoing government shutdown has affected the release of critical economic data, creating uncertainty about the accuracy and timeliness of upcoming reports [9][10]

Core Insights - Tariffs are significantly impacting the global packaging industry, with a universal 10% import duty and increased steel and aluminium tariffs now in effect, leading to higher packaging costs and supply chain uncertainties [1][2][3] Tariff Impact on Costs and Supply Chains - The restoration and expansion of Section 232 metals duties have raised input costs for aluminium and steel used in packaging, affecting pricing and procurement strategies [2] - Packaging buyers are front-loading orders to avoid tariff impacts, resulting in increased warehousing costs and price volatility [3] Retaliation and Broader Economic Effects - Retaliatory measures from countries like China, including a WTO case and countermeasures, are exacerbating supply chain pressures and increasing recession risks as tariff coverage expands [4] Deregulation and Compliance Changes - The US government is rolling back environmental regulations, which may reduce compliance costs for packaging but could lead to greater divergence from stricter state and international standards [5][6] - Changes in food and consumer-goods labelling regulations are also occurring, which may affect packaging design and compliance processes [6][7] Price and Sustainability Implications - Higher import duties on aluminium cans are likely to increase input costs, potentially shifting some demand back to plastic bottles, which may have lower life-cycle costs [8]

American farmers have long struggled with high costs and low prices for their crops. But this year, there is even greater uncertainty in the fields. China stopped buying all US soybeans in May. Retaliation for President Trump's tariffs. Many American farmers were left without their largest export market. President Trump and China's President Xiinping came to a temporary truce. But farmers told us that whatever happens next with tariffs, the problems on their farms continue to run deep. We went to rural Tenn ...

Trump suggests $2,000 payouts to Americans as he defends tariffs https://t.co/l6i3ChOUvW ...

The streets are the darker side of capitalism. When I realize tariffs are just somebody paying draft to hustle in America, I say, "Oh, I got it." When it comes to just the stock market in general, I have to put it in terms and references that I can really relate to. So, in the streets, if I want to hustle in somebody else's neighborhood, it's one of two things that has to happen.either that person gives me a blessing to sell there and then I can sell there freely or I have to pay what's called draft. Draft ...

If Trump really gives $2,000 to citizens from the tariffs, history will probably look at the April 2025 fear mongering as one of the dumbest mainstream consensus takes in our lifetime.Eventually everyone will realize what I have said since day one....not only will the tariffs work, but they won't be inflationary either.Just a matter of time until the critics admit it. ...