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地方债,正当时
Group 1 - The issuance of local bonds is expected to accelerate in the second quarter, but the impact may be relatively limited. The first quarter saw a slower pace of new bond issuance compared to 2023, but the progress of replacement bonds was faster. As of April 3, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general and special bonds accounted for 34.9% and 21.8% of the annual quota, respectively [10][14][25]. - In the second quarter, the issuance of local bonds may speed up, with a focus on 10-year and longer-term bonds. The demand for stable growth and policy guidance is likely to lead to a significant increase in the issuance of new special bonds, while the replacement of hidden debt bonds is expected to be nearly complete [19][27]. Group 2 - Banks remain the main players in local bond allocation, with a recent increase in the willingness of broad-based funds to allocate. Since the implementation of the debt policy in October 2023, the interest and allocation willingness of broad-based funds towards local bonds have significantly increased, with the investment share rising from 5.44% in October 2023 to 8.54% in February 2025 [3][19]. - Local bonds currently exhibit both allocation value and trading value, making them a timely investment. The liquidity of local bonds is notably weaker than that of government bonds, and their market performance tends to lag behind. However, the current price-performance ratio of local bonds is high, providing both allocation and trading opportunities [3][19][27].