2025 年 06 月 22 日 减国债利差整体收窄，下周发行将 明显提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250620 相关研究 《发行继续降速，10Y 和 30Y 减国 债利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟 踪 20250613 》 2025/06/15 《新增地方债发行降速，10Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250606 》 2025/06/08 《发行与净融资环比均下降，10Y 减 国债利差大幅回升——地方债周度 跟踪 20250530 》 2025/06/02 《10Y 地方债减国债利差大幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250523 》 2025/05/26 《发行和净融资环比上升，除 30Y 外其他期限减国债利差皆收窄—— 地方债周度跟踪 20250516 》 2025/05/18 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that local bonds may be approaching an allocation window. It analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local bonds, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume and turnover rates [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Conditions - **Net Financing**: This week, local bond issuance was 107.8 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 43 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 261.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 124.3 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to this week [1][3]. - **Issuance Terms**: The issuance proportion of 10 - year local bonds was the highest this week (47%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds reached 76%, an increase from last week. The 10 - year bond issuance proportion increased by about 24 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds worth 26.7 billion yuan were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.7362 trillion yuan. Special special bonds worth 1.5 billion yuan were issued this week, and as of the end of this week, the disclosed and issued scales in 2025 were 273 billion yuan and 245.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local bonds this week was 12bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local bond had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 19.3bp. Except for the 5 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms widened [1]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of newly - added special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), social undertakings (12%), and affordable housing projects (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.7% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: In the second quarter of 2025, 36 regions have disclosed local bond issuance plans, with an estimated total issuance of 2.48 trillion yuan. In June, the planned issuance is 1007.6 billion yuan [30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Conditions - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year local bonds were advantageous, and the secondary spread of 10 - year local bonds narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 21bp and 20bp respectively. The historical quantile of the 30 - year bond's secondary spread was 87% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rates**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local bonds increased. Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Ningbo had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume reached 598.3 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 1.17%. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Sichuan had large trading volumes [5].

2025 年 06 月 15 日 发行继续降速，10Y 和 30Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250613 相关研究 《新增地方债发行降速，10Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250606 》 2025/06/08 《发行与净融资环比均下降，10Y 减 国债利差大幅回升——地方债周度 跟踪 20250530 》 2025/06/02 《10Y 地方债减国债利差大幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250523 》 2025/05/26 《发行和净融资环比上升，除 30Y 外其他期限减国债利差皆收窄—— 地方债周度跟踪 20250516 》 2025/05/18 《发行和净融资环比下降，7Y 及以 上减国债利差均收窄——地方债周 度跟踪 20250509》 2025/05/11 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearc ...

2025 年 06 月 08 日 新增地方债发行降速，10Y 减国债 利差小幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250606 相关研究 《发行与净融资环比均下降，10Y 减 国债利差大幅回升——地方债周度 跟踪 20250530 》 2025/06/02 《10Y 地方债减国债利差大幅收窄 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250523 》 2025/05/26 《发行和净融资环比上升，除 30Y 外其他期限减国债利差皆收窄—— 地方债周度跟踪 20250516 》 2025/05/18 《发行和净融资环比下降，7Y 及以 上减国债利差均收窄——地方债周 度跟踪 20250509》 2025/05/11 《发行和净融资均下降，10Y 和 30Y 减国债利差表现分化——地方债周 度跟踪 20250430 》 2025/05/05 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsrese ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源固收研究 ，作者黄伟平 杨雪芳 申万宏源固收研究 . 申万宏源证券研究所债券研究部 Ø 一季度新增债发行节奏并不快，但置换债发行进度较快。 今年一季度新增债整体发行进度低于 2023年同期但高于2024年同期，置换隐债专项债2万 亿额度发行进度已超2/3。 Ø 二季度地方债发行或提速， 10Y及以上供给可能放量。 稳增长诉求和政策引导下，二季度新增专项债发行可能明显提速，置换隐债专项债或基本发 完，预计 4-6月各月发行相对平滑。期限方面，二季度主要关注10年及以上偏长期限地方债供给的放量。 Ø 地方债供给节奏是地方债 -国债利差的重要影响因素之一，但央行或通过买断式逆回购等方式配合，二季度地方债供给冲击或相对可控，且可能存在 阶段性交易机会。 银行仍为配置主力，近期广义基金配置意愿增强 Ø 近期广义基金等交易盘对地方债的配置意愿明显增强，伴随地方债流动性的明显提升。 2023年10月化债政策推进以来，广义基金等交易盘对地方债 的关注度和配置意愿明显提升，投资占比从2023年10月的5.44%提升至2025年2月的8.54%，地方债的周度换手率中枢也从0.6%左右提升至0.9%左右。 Ø ...