Monetary Policy Outlook - New York Fed President John Williams sees room for another "near-term" rate cut [1] - Employment risks have risen, while inflation risks have eased, supporting the case for a rate cut [1] - Fed officials are split on whether to cut rates again in December [1] Key Decision Factor - The final decision on a December rate cut likely hinges on Chair Jerome Powell [1]

Market Overview - Market indexes experienced a reversal, initially up 1-2% but later down 1-2% due to reconsideration of positive economic metrics and labor market data [1][2] - The Dow dropped 2400 points, S&P 500 down 310 points, Nasdaq down 1325 points, and small-cap Russell down 145 points since November 12 [2] Earnings Reports - The Gap (GAP) reported its seventh consecutive quarter of revenue growth with earnings of 62 cents per share, beating consensus by 4 cents, and revenues of $3.9 billion meeting expectations; comps increased by 5% despite Athleta's -11% year-over-year growth [3] - Ross Stores (ROST) exceeded expectations with earnings of $1.58 per share, surpassing the consensus of $1.40, and revenues of $5.6 billion exceeding the forecast of $5.4 billion; next-quarter earnings guidance was raised [4] - Intuit (INTU) reported earnings of $3.34 per share, above the $3.10 consensus, with revenues of $3.89 billion beating the expected $3.76 billion; next-quarter revenue guidance was raised, but earnings guidance for fiscal Q2 was lowered [5]

Company Performance - Nvidia reported strong earnings, significantly outperforming expectations and demonstrating its leading position in the AI chip market, which analysts believe is not indicative of a bubble [5][6] - Corporate earnings across various sectors were robust, with actual results exceeding initial expectations of 6% growth, marking the strongest quarter since Q4 2021 [6][7] Economic Indicators - The delayed September jobs report revealed an addition of 119,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, which was better than the anticipated 51,000 new jobs, although previous months' job gains were revised down by 33,000 [3] - The benchmark 10-year yield decreased to 4.098%, reflecting market reactions to economic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations [2]

Market Overview - US stocks experienced significant losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling over 2.1% and marking a more than 3.5% intraday reversal [1] - The S&P 500 declined by 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 380 points, or 0.8% [2] Earnings Reports - Nvidia reported strong earnings, initially boosting investor sentiment, but its stock ended the day down 3.1% after peaking at a 5% gain in early trading [3] - Walmart raised its full-year forecasts after beating profit and sales expectations in the third quarter, leading to a nearly 7% increase in its shares [7] Economic Indicators - The September jobs report revealed that the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected gain of 51,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August [4] - Options traders are pricing in approximately 38% odds of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in December, reflecting a divided outlook among policymakers [5] Market Sentiment - The abrupt market downturn coincided with a sharp decline in cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin trading below $87,000, nearing its lowest levels since April [3] - The recent economic data provided insights into the US economy following the end of the longest government shutdown, highlighting differing views among Fed policymakers regarding labor market conditions and inflation risks [6]

Market Overview - The US stock rally experienced a reversal as investors reacted to Nvidia's earnings and the September jobs report [1][2] - The Nasdaq Composite fell approximately 0.3% after an earlier rise of about 2.5%, while the S&P 500 decreased around 0.2% after gaining as much as 1.8% [2] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock initially surged nearly 5% following a strong earnings report and an optimistic revenue outlook for Q4, but later turned negative [3] - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted that demand for Blackwell processors is "off the charts," alleviating concerns about a potential long-term slowdown in AI-linked stocks [3] Employment Data - The September nonfarm payrolls report indicated the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected gain of 51,000 [4] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the jobs report, options traders estimated a 38% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December, reflecting a divided view among policymakers [5][6] - The recent data provided insights into the US economy post the longest government shutdown, with differing opinions on whether a cooling labor market or persistent inflation poses greater risks [6] Walmart Earnings - Walmart raised its full-year forecasts after surpassing profit and sales expectations in Q3, leading to a rise in its shares [7] - The retailer's performance is viewed as indicative of consumer strength heading into the holiday season [7]

Market Overview - The stock market is mixed, with the Dow Jones down while the NASDAQ composite is up by 0.44% [2][3] - The S&P 500 is showing similar trends, up by 0.21% [3] - The Russell 2000 small caps are down by 0.3%, indicating a lack of breadth in the market [3] Bond Market - The 10-year Treasury yield is flat at 4.13%, while the 30-year yield is up by one basis point to 4.75% [4] - The VIX is slightly lower, indicating reduced volatility compared to previous spikes [4][5] Sector Performance - Technology is rebounding, up by 0.61%, while energy is the biggest loser, down by 1.5% [5] - Defensive sectors like staples, real estate, and utilities are underperforming, with only communication services showing some strength [5][6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal a division among members regarding rate cuts, with some favoring a pause in December [10][12] - Concerns about sticky inflation and its potential impact on monetary policy decisions were highlighted [15][12] Nvidia Earnings Expectations - Nvidia is set to report third-quarter earnings, with expectations of earnings per share at $1.26 and revenue of $55.2 billion, representing increases of 55% and 57% respectively [19] - The earnings report is viewed as a critical indicator for the broader AI market and could influence investor sentiment significantly [27][30] Economic Outlook - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, with the upcoming jobs report expected to provide further insights [16][45] - Analysts predict modest economic growth, with expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in the near future [64][66] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000, indicating a decline in the cryptocurrency market [9] - The overall sentiment in the crypto space remains cautious, with recent IPOs in the sector facing challenges [94][100] Company-Specific Developments - Qualcomm is expanding its presence in the Middle East with a new engineering hub in Saudi Arabia, part of a broader push into AI partnerships [85][88] - Kraken is planning a US IPO, seeking to raise funds at a valuation of around $20 billion amidst a challenging crypto market [94][98] - Chipotle's stock is viewed as undervalued despite recent challenges, with analysts suggesting potential upside [100][101] - Lazy Boy reported strong earnings, raising its quarterly dividend and providing upbeat guidance, marking a significant stock performance increase [105][107]

You know, you just heard Steve Leeman at the top saying these minutes were to him a little confusing. The Fed seems divided. I mean, all the data is all the same for everybody.So, it's weird to see a lot of the same people with the same data with very different conclusions. >> Yeah, I'll tell you what. Uh, I glanced over most of the major headlines and read through as much as I could before I was on air and I don't see at all the hawkishness that Steve sees.Here's what I saw. I saw likely not appropriate. T ...

Core Insights - The cancellation of the October jobs report is surprising, especially since businesses maintain payroll records, making data retrieval seemingly straightforward [1][2] - The decision to combine October data with the November release, which will be published in December, indicates ongoing challenges in data collection due to the shutdown [2][3] Labor Market Implications - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will lack crucial October labor market data during its December 9 meeting, relying instead on alternative data sources and a delayed September jobs report [3][4] - The FOMC will need to adjust its reliance on official statistics, particularly non-farm payrolls, due to recognized measurement issues at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [4][5] Alternative Data Analysis - Bloomberg Economics has developed an alternative data-based labor market index indicating that the labor market is currently one standard deviation weaker than historical norms [6] - If the Federal Reserve considers this alternative data, it may provide justification for a potential rate cut, even if not all members agree on the decision [6]

Rate cut (≤ 25 bps) leads with 54%Make your prediction now: https://t.co/4qA296DvVC https://t.co/Ykxlj3z9f0 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $90,000 for the first time since April, indicating a potential prolonged downside trend due to a death cross formation [1][2] - The decline has erased all gains made in 2025, with a 28% decrease from the October peak of $126,000 [2] - The crypto market faced substantial liquidation, exceeding $1 billion, with Bitcoin alone contributing approximately $569.37 million [3] Market Sentiment - The fear and greed index is at 11, reflecting extreme fear among investors [3] - Traders are alarmed by the recent drop, speculating that further declines may occur [3] Economic Context - Anticipation of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is contributing to Bitcoin's volatility, as there are mixed views on easing monetary policy amidst inflation concerns [4] - Some analysts view the current drop as a "routine" bear market for cryptocurrencies, suggesting a potential for recovery [4][5] Historical Perspective - Historically, every significant decline in Bitcoin's price has been followed by new record highs, indicating a potential for future growth despite current disruptions [5]