Summary of Phillips Edison & Company Update - September 24, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Phillips Edison & Company (NasdaqGS:PECO) - **Industry**: Grocery-anchored neighborhood shopping centers Key Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Environment - Current inflation rate is 2.9%, near the 30-year average, indicating economic resilience despite inflation concerns [3][4] - Unemployment rate in August was 4.3%, which is low compared to long-term averages [3][4] - Phillips Edison & Company has limited exposure to heavily imported retail categories, mitigating tariff impacts [3][4] Business Performance and Growth - Increased full-year 2025 guidance due to strong retailer demand and higher rents [4][5] - Dividend distribution rate raised by 5.7%, marking the fifth consecutive annual increase [5][6] - Stock price is approximately 6% lower year-to-date, attributed to macroeconomic concerns and elevated interest rates [6][7] - Total return of approximately 47.3% since IPO through June 30, 2025 [7] Portfolio and Investment Strategy - Focus on necessity-based retail, with 70% of total rent from necessity-based goods and services [13][41] - Same-center NOI growth projected between 3% and 4% annually [9][14] - Strong acquisition pipeline with $302 million in acquisitions closed to date, targeting $350 million to $450 million for the year [8][9] - Low leverage at approximately 32% loan-to-value, providing financial capacity for growth [9][10] Resilience and Risk Management - Historical occupancy loss during economic downturns was minimal, with only 60 basis points during the pandemic [27][28] - Limited exposure to at-risk retailers, focusing on essential services [41][42] - Confidence in the ability to deliver strong earnings growth even in potential recession scenarios [26][27] Technological Advancements - Engaging in 20 active artificial intelligence projects aimed at improving operational efficiency [29][33] - Recognized with a Digital Innovation Award for best use of AI, highlighting commitment to technological advancements [33] Future Outlook - Management believes current stock price offers a favorable entry point for investors [19][49] - Commitment to increasing dividends as cash flow grows, maintaining a low payout ratio [46][47] - Potential for mergers or acquisitions if favorable opportunities arise [44][45] Community and Customer Focus - Emphasis on building community through tenant relationships, referring to tenants as "neighbors" [15][16] - Centers are strategically located in suburban markets with strong demographics, enhancing foot traffic [13][15] Additional Important Insights - The company is well-aligned with its investors, with management owning 8% of the company [17] - The focus on omnichannel retailing positions Phillips Edison & Company favorably in the evolving retail landscape [12][16] - The company’s strategy is designed to provide a balance of stability and growth, appealing to both retail and institutional investors [5][19]

Let's get the opening bell here in the CNBC realtime exchange. The big board, it is the president of the Swiss Confederation in New York for the UN General Assembly at the NASDAQ security national financial celebrating its 60th anniversary. As uh some of the desk notes today, Jim, BA is a good example.S&P trades like it's a new risk-free rate. >> Yeah, look, there's just so much. maybe some evidence because of the of the Fed chair, but there's absolutely a sense that we're bumping up against levels that we ...

Core Insights - A significant decline in demand for cardboard packaging is raising concerns about the overall economic health in the United States, as it serves as a key indicator of consumer activity and industrial performance [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicator - Corrugated cardboard is referred to as the "cardboard box index" by economists, as it reflects the state of trade, manufacturing, and retail [2]. - Recent data indicates that shipments of corrugated boxes in the US have reached their lowest levels in years, which is alarming since consumer spending constitutes about two-thirds of the American economy [3]. Group 2: Causes of Demand Slump - The decline in cardboard demand is attributed to several factors, including: - Post-pandemic adjustments where online shopping surged during lockdowns, leading to a normalization of packaging orders at lower levels as consumers shift spending from goods to services [4]. - Trade pressures and rising costs of raw materials like wood pulp due to tariffs and changing trade policies, which are squeezing box manufacturers' margins [4]. - Retailers and e-commerce companies are adopting lighter mailers and reusable packaging, reducing the need for traditional corrugated boxes [4]. - A slowdown in key industries such as construction and automotive, which are major consumers of packaging, resulting in fewer shipping orders [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The drop in cardboard demand is seen as an early sign of a potential recession, as reduced packaging often precedes declines in GDP and employment [4]. - Job losses are anticipated in sectors like paper mills, packaging plants, and timber suppliers, with several pulp mills in North America already closing or reducing capacity [4]. - Lower packaging orders may lead to corporate caution, with firms delaying production and investment, which could negatively impact financial markets and economic confidence [4].

Market Outlook - Carson Group expects a strong end-of-year rally, maintaining a bullish stance despite potential short-term volatility [1][2] - The fourth quarter is projected to be up almost 6% based on median returns, historically performing well after five consecutive months of gains [4] - The market may experience a 4% to 6% correction, which would be considered a healthy pullback [5] Economic Indicators - Strong earnings, profit margins, and consumer spending indicate no immediate recession [6] - Credit markets are functioning well, supporting ongoing deal-making activity, including AI deals [9] - Retail sales data from the previous week suggests a robust consumer base [6] Investor Behavior - Put-to-call ratios are at some of the lowest levels of the year, indicating increasing optimism [5] - US equity funds experienced inflows of $58 billion, the highest this year, reflecting growing investor confidence [5] - Corporate buybacks are at record highs, indicating corporations are deploying significant cash reserves [7] Potential Risks - Over-optimism and complacency in certain market segments could lead to a correction [10] - Technology sector concentration (34% of the market) poses a risk; diversification is recommended [14] - Lack of broad market participation, with only technology and communication services outperforming recently, suggests potential consolidation [11][12]

Joining me now, Mark Zandandy, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Mark, great to have you back. Thanks so much for joining us. >> Yeah, thanks for having me.I appreciate the opportunity. >> So, Mark, the Fed cut interest rates. We've been waiting for this.The big question now is now what. So, let's break it down. What does this mean for the housing market.Is now the time to buy a house. >> Well, it's still pretty unaffordable. uh despite the lower mortgage rates uh you know we got very high house prices ...

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the implications of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle and its impact on various sectors and markets, particularly in the context of the global economy and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Recession Outlook**: There is a low probability of a recession following the Fed's rate cuts, with historical data indicating that recessions occur 56% of the time after rate cuts. Current conditions do not show classic preconditions for a recession, such as commodity shocks or excess private sector leverage [5][10][12]. 2. **Market Bubble Risk**: If the Fed cuts rates by 1% by year-end, all seven preconditions for a market bubble would be present, with a 35% probability of a bubble forming in 2026. Historically, markets have risen by an average of 17% 12 months after a rate cut without a recession [5][21][26]. 3. **Technology Sector Performance**: The technology sector, particularly software, is expected to outperform following rate cuts, with historical data showing that tech stocks outperform 75% of the time in the 12 months after the first rate cut if there is no recession [3][30]. 4. **Dollar Weakness**: The dollar typically weakens following rate cuts, with historical data showing an 80% chance of a decline in the month after a cut. This trend supports investment in sectors that benefit from a weaker dollar, such as domestic European companies and certain U.S. sectors [4][38][45]. 5. **Emerging Markets (EM) Focus**: Emerging markets tend to outperform following Fed rate cuts, with a 75% success rate in the 12 months after a cut without a recession. Specific countries highlighted include Brazil and China, along with indirect plays like Reckitt Benckiser and Coca-Cola [5][75]. 6. **Sector Analysis**: - **Cyclicals vs. Defensives**: Cyclical sectors (excluding tech and financials) are currently priced for strong economic recovery, while defensives are recommended for stability. Financials are expected to outperform 75% of the time following rate cuts [7][73]. - **Gold Stocks**: Gold stocks are favored as they have historically risen after rate cuts, with a weaker dollar further supporting this trend [9][37]. 7. **Small Caps Sensitivity**: U.S. small caps are more sensitive to rate changes but have shown limited long-term performance following rate cuts due to their underweight in tech and overvaluation concerns [8][63]. 8. **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests maintaining positions in tech stocks (Meta, MSFT, Amazon, TSMC), electrification companies (Eaton, Schneider), and gold stocks as preferred investments in the current environment [3][37][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the unusual nature of the current economic environment, drawing parallels to historical periods such as September 1998, where similar conditions led to significant market gains [26][28]. - The analysis includes detailed statistical data on sector performance following rate cuts, highlighting the importance of understanding historical trends in making investment decisions [74][75]. This comprehensive analysis provides a strategic framework for navigating the potential impacts of the Fed's monetary policy on various sectors and markets.

More youth and young adults are unemployed than at any point in the last 9 years, outside of recession.unusual_whales (@unusual_whales):US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo ...

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And welcome back to Squawkbox. Our exclusive Q3 CFO survey is back with insights from the biggest corporate financial decision makers. Managing risk always top of mind.26% said US trade policy that's the biggest risk to their business. Also the top answer. You can see here consumer demand a close second at 22%.We also asked their views on a possible recession. Wide range of answers here. More than 7%.They see a recession still being a possibility this year. Roughly half see the potential for a major economi ...