Betting on Mexico’s currency has paid off for investors even amid Donald Trump’s trade war https://t.co/Zxx7INMOMR ...

Trade War & Tariffs - US President threatens 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico if better trade terms are not agreed by August 1 [1][4][46] - Brussels delays retaliatory tariffs while negotiations with the US continue [1][46] - A 30% tariff rate could disrupt trade between the EU and US [12][77] - EU is considering engaging with other nations hit by US tariffs to counter the threats [9][76] - The EU Foreign Ministers are meeting to discuss progress on trade talks [76][78] Market Impact & Economic Outlook - Stocks fall as trade war escalates, with investors bracing for data on tariff impacts [1][46] - European markets are down, impacted by the possibility of European tariffs going up to 30% on August 1 [3][12] - A 30% tariff could be a "real challenge" for European manufacturers and could tip the Euro Zone into a recession [13][14][15] - Germany's growth is already flat, and a 30% tariff could lead to negative growth [16] Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy - Markets are focused on the physical outlook, with Germany having a solid footing with debt GDP around 65% [19] - There is a likelihood of a more dovish shift from the ECB due to the risks around growth and weakening trade relationships [25] - The market is underpricing the risk of the Fed chair being forcibly removed or dismissed [93] China's Economy & Trade - China's export growth has accelerated, driven by demand and helped by the trade war truce with the US [28] - China had a $590 billion surplus in the first theft of the year, which will help drive growth [28] - Companies worldwide are trying to buy as much Chinese products as they can due to price deflation [31] Panama & International Relations - Panama was removed from the EU's list of high-risk regimes [33][34] - Panama's relationship with the US is "very good," with close cooperation on commerce and security [36][37] - There is "no Chinese influence" in Panama or the Panama Canal [38][39][40] Renewable Energy & India - India is making strides in clean energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, which account for 5% of GDP in imports [55] - The Indian clean energy sector is mostly domestically focused, with a 6% annual growth in the electricity system [57] - The Indian government is taking a strategic view to localize the manufacturing of clean energy equipment [62][63]

China's export growth accelerated for the first time since March as factories rode out the tariff rollercoaster. Exports in June were up 5.8%, while imports rose 1.1%, both figures beating estimates. Let's get more with Bloomberg China economy editor Alan Wong.Allan, what does the data tell us about how China has been dealing with the latest tariff headwinds from the US. China's data is telling us that China's export machine is humming along rather nicely. Despite all the tariffs and the trade war that is s ...

Chinese manufacturers looking to dodge steep U.S. tariffs are pushing across the border to make their goods in Vietnam. This wasn't exactly the desired outcome of Trump's trade war. https://t.co/5Yhkl0aCrj ...

I'd like to bring in a true economics expert now, Ken Rogoff. Ken formerly, as I mentioned, served as the chief economist and director of research at the International Monetary Fund. He's a professor of economics at Harvard University. He's the author of multiple books, including the recently published Our Dollar, Your Problem, an insider's view of seven turbulent decades of global finance and the road ahead. Ken, welcome back to the show. Good to see you. Thank you, Ally. That was a great overview. I'm sti ...

Welcome back. And joining me now is Republican Senator John Baraso of Wyoming. Senator Baraso, welcome back to Meet the Press.Good to be with you. Thank you. It's wonderful to have you back.Let's start with President Trump's escalating trade war this week announcing uh that he may impose tariffs of up to 35% against Canada. Worth noting in your home state of Wyoming, more than half of imports come from Canada. Canada supports about 13,000 jobs in Wyoming.Are President Trump's tariffs going to hurt Wyoming. ...

Group 1 - The term "Tariff" has become significant in the context of President Trump's trade war, particularly affecting the automotive industry [1] - Ford, despite being a well-known American brand, faces challenges due to the uncertain macroeconomic environment influenced by trade policies [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macro drivers that impact various asset classes, including stocks and commodities [1]

Tariff Uncertainty & Deadlines - The market faces uncertainty regarding President Trump's tariff threats, with August 1st as a key deadline [1][2][4][15] - Negotiations are crucial; positive outcomes could lead to further exemptions, while failures may trigger tariff increases [2][3][15] - Clients are advised to closely monitor the news cycle for updates on negotiations [2] Political & Policy Considerations - Tariffs on Brazil are more of a political issue related to President Trump's views on former President Bolsonaro [3][4][6] - The US-Brazil relationship is unique due to this political dimension [4] - President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement tariffs is facing legal challenges [6][7] Implementation & Market Impact - Markets are largely pricing in the new round of tariffs as status quo [8] - The President aims to avoid tariffs that harm US consumers [9][10][11] - USMCA goods from Canada are not impacted by the additional 10% tariff, limiting the impact on US consumers [10] - Rising prices at grocery stores and major retailers could prompt President Trump to reconsider tariffs [11][12] Legal Challenges & Timelines - Court proceedings challenging the tariffs are ongoing, but courts move slowly [12][13] - The Supreme Court could potentially hear the case later this year [14] - Market participants desire immediate certainty, which the courts cannot provide [14][15]

Trade War & Tariffs - The US president is reigniting a trade war with Canada, threatening a 35% tariff on goods if a deal isn't struck by August 1 [1][2] - The president is also making trade moves against Brazil, potentially leading to further negotiations before August 1 [3] - The average American could pay $2,400 more per year if the tariffs remain in place [5] - The current average tariff imposed by the US is 15-16%, the highest since 1936 [6] - The imposition of tariffs may lead to price increases in the fall, particularly for auto dealers [7] Fentanyl & Border Security - Of the 22,000 pounds of fentanyl that crossed the American border, only 43 pounds came from Canada [4] - The president is making false claims about the amount of fentanyl flowing from the northern border [2] Trade Agreement Progress - The president promised 90 deals in 90 days, but only two framework agreements and one tariff pause with China have materialized [9] - There is a lack of clarity regarding the rationale for tariffs, whether it's to raise revenue, reduce the deficit, or level the playing field [10] Economic Impact & Market Reaction - The tariffs haven't significantly impacted inflation yet, possibly due to businesses using pre-tariff inventories [7] - Wall Street seems to believe the president will eventually back away from the tariffs [11] - Even if the president backs away, baseline tariffs could remain 10%, almost five times higher than the previous administration [11]

Market Trends & Trade - President Trump is escalating the trade war, imposing a 35% tariff on all imports from Canada starting August 1st, a rise from the existing 25% tariff on US imports from Canada [1] - The US is expecting a formalization of June tariff revenue, anticipated to be well north of $25 billion [1] - Discussions are ongoing regarding which specific goods will be subject to tariffs on Canada, with expectations that USMCA goods, oil, and fertilizer may be excluded from the 35% rate, but no final decisions have been made [1][2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is rallying, eyeing $120,000 per token after exceeding $118,000, fueled by inflows into Bitcoin-backed ETFs, corporate buying, and a friendly regulatory framework [1][2] - Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up 26%, with crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Robinhood at all-time highs [2] Stock Market & Company Performance - US stock futures are falling, with Dow futures off almost 300 basis points, S&P futures down about 06%, and NASDAQ lower about 05%, following record highs for both NASDAQ and the S&P 500 [1] - Levi Strauss raised its revenue forecast, anticipating sales growth to outweigh the effects of President Trump's tariffs [1] - Nvidia became the first company to close above the $4 trillion market cap threshold [1][2] - Analysts have raised year-end targets for the S&P 500, with Wells Fargo predicting over 7,000, RBC Capital Markets at 6,700, and Goldman Sachs at 6,600, driven by receding tariff concerns and bullishness on Wall Street [7] - The S&P 500 is up around 7% year-to-date, trading around the 6300 mark [10] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - A Fed governor is voicing support for rate cuts sooner, potentially as early as the next policy meeting, due to a belief that tariffs will not have a major impact on inflation [2] - The market is pricing in a 30% odds of no rate cut at the September meeting [16] Company Specific News - Boeing investors are awaiting details from a preliminary report on an Air India flight crash, with initial investigations focusing on the pilot's actions [3] - Wedbush raised its rating on AMC to outperform, expecting the movie theater chain to benefit from more consistent releases [3] - US Foods is reportedly exploring an acquisition of Performance Food Group, potentially creating a company with $100 billion in total sales [4][5]