Trade war 2.0?Remember last time this happened Trump was kind enough to tell us when to buy the exact bottom.Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru):BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 President Trump to impose 100% tariff on China starting November 1st. https://t.co/eBCzqjqIhh ...

Group 1 - The dollar declined after President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on China, raising concerns about the trade war's impact on the U.S. economy [1] - The dollar index fell by 0.4% to 98.99, but is still on track for a weekly gain of 1.66%, the largest since September 2024 [2] - The euro and yen strengthened against the dollar, while commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar weakened [2] Group 2 - Traders are monitoring the potential reopening of the U.S. federal government and upcoming economic data that could influence Federal Reserve policy [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release September's consumer inflation report on October 24, which is crucial for determining the cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 [3] - There is a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, with a 92% chance of an additional cut in December [4] Group 3 - The Japanese yen weakened due to concerns that the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates this year following a political shift [5] - Japanese Finance Minister expressed worries about excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market, indicating potential government intervention [6]

Chip stocks sinking as President Trump threatens an escalation of USChina trade tensions. And this just hours after China announced an antirust probe into US chip giant Qualcomm. Mackenzie Sagalis has more in today's tech check.Mac, help me straighten out all these headlines. So Courtney, Qualcomm shares are plunging down 5% as it finds itself in the crossfire of an escalating trade war between the US and China. One that is now dragging America's biggest tech giants into the fight.Beijing's latest blow, its ...

Market Overview & Trade Tensions - NASDAQ 下跌约 2% [1] - 美国总统威胁要大幅提高对中国的关税，原因是 rare earth（稀土）出口管制，贸易战升级 [1][3] - 市场对贸易和关税问题的自满情绪显现，此前市场关注点主要集中在 AI 和盈利上 [9] Potential Economic Impact - 中国对 rare earth（稀土）实施出口管制，被视为对美国技术供应链的激进行为 [3] - 市场此前已消化了大部分利好消息，因此对负面消息非常敏感 [7] - 中国关税已经达到 30%，大幅增加关税可能会造成极大的破坏 [8] - 经济可能出现分化，高收入消费者支出增长是低收入消费者的四倍，经济由高端消费和 AI 驱动 [13][14] Company & Sector Specifics - 芯片股（Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, AMD 等）以及其他对中国有敞口的股票表现疲软 [6] - AMD 实现了自 2016 年以来最好的一周 [20] - Qualcomm 面临中国反垄断调查 [20] Investment Strategy & Outlook - 市场回调可能提供买入机会，因为经济增长良好，消费者状况良好，AI 复兴，盈利良好 [11] - 预计银行业盈利将非常强劲，并寻找买入机会 [12] - 预计 GDP 为 38% (原文为 3.8%，疑似笔误) [15] - 预计未来经济将受到刺激，盈利增长 [16] - 市场存在风险，如果 AI 热情消退或美联储停止降息，可能导致市场大幅回调 [18]

Economic Growth - Economic growth has shown resilience in 2025 year-to-date despite negative macroeconomic conditions caused by the trade war and tariffs [1] - The primary reason for this resilience is likely attributed to frontloading [1]

Core Viewpoint - Aston Martin has issued a profit warning, attributing it to Donald Trump's tariffs and calling for more proactive support from the UK government [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Outlook and Financial Performance - Aston Martin downgraded its profit outlook for the second time this year, now expecting a larger loss than the previously forecasted £110 million [1]. - The company delivered 1,430 cars in the third quarter, missing its previous guidance of being "broadly similar" to the 1,641 vehicles sold in the same period last year [6]. - Aston Martin no longer expects to generate positive free cash flow for the second half of the current year [9]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Trade Agreements - The company criticized the US tariff quota mechanism, stating it complicates forecasting for the financial year and beyond [4]. - A 25% tariff was imposed by Trump on April 3, 2023, on top of an existing 2.5% levy, which has disrupted the global economy and the car industry [3]. - A deal was reached in May to limit tariffs on 100,000 British-made cars to 10%, effective June 30, but Aston Martin found this deal unsatisfactory [3][4]. Group 3: Demand and Market Conditions - Weaker demand has been partly attributed to supply chain pressures, exacerbated by a recent cyber incident affecting a major UK automotive manufacturer [4]. - The British car industry has faced challenges this year, including a cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover, which has impacted production [5]. Group 4: Future Plans and Investments - Aston Martin is reviewing its future cost and spending plans, likely resulting in lower capital investment in engineering and development compared to the previous guidance of about £2 billion between 2025 and 2029 [9]. - The company is preparing to launch its $1 million (£743,000) Valhalla hypercar, with expected deliveries in the final quarter of the financial year, although forecasts have been adjusted due to engineering delays [7].

[Music] [Music] The Trump administration may roll out what it calls substantial support for American farmers who have suffered losses due to trade policy. Now, let's hear directly from the farm. Blake Hurst joins us.He is former president of the Missouri Farm Bureau and a farmer. Blake, welcome to the show. Um, I want to start off kind of bigger picture, Blake, because I'm curious to hear how the American farm economy is doing right now, Blake.You know, broadly, how is it is it holding up. What is your sens ...

RT Zanny Minton Beddoes (@zannymb)I was in Ottawa this week to interview @MarkJCarney for the first episode of The Economist Insider.I’ll be joined by three colleagues for a debate about the winners and losers of Donald Trump’s trade war.Browse all of our coming episodes: https://t.co/BZzRavUFp0 https://t.co/IsMNaKZghj ...

Core Insights - Soybeans are at the center of the U.S.-China trade war, significantly impacting farmers and traders due to a perfect storm of record crop outputs and declining demand [1] - China, which typically accounts for about half of U.S. soybean exports, has not purchased any U.S. soybeans this year [2] - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs by China has led to a total duty rate of 34% on U.S. soybeans, exacerbating trade tensions [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - China is sourcing soybeans from South American countries like Argentina and Brazil, which have developed rapidly growing soybean infrastructure [4] - Reports indicate that China has purchased the majority of 40 soybean cargoes from Argentina, raising concerns among U.S. farmers and traders [4] Government Response - The American Soybean Association is advocating for a U.S.-China trade deal, with soybeans expected to be a major topic in upcoming discussions between President Trump and President Xi Jinping [5] - The Trump administration plans to allocate a portion of tariff revenue, estimated to be at least $10 billion, to support American farmers [6]

Core Viewpoint - RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, faces increasing challenges due to new tariffs imposed on furniture imports, which could exacerbate existing difficulties in the macroeconomic environment [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - President Trump announced new tariffs effective October 1, including a 30% tariff on imported upholstered furniture and a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities [2]. - RH's stock fell by 3.3% following the tariff announcement, reflecting the company's sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions and a weak housing market [3]. - The company imports 72% of its products from Asia, with significant portions coming from Vietnam (35%) and China (23%), making it vulnerable to tariff impacts [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Adjustments - RH has already begun to adapt its supply chain in response to existing tariffs, reducing its reliance on Chinese imports from 16% to an expected 2% by the fourth quarter [7]. - CEO Gary Friedman indicated that tariffs would shift about 5% of orders from the second quarter to the third quarter, highlighting the operational challenges posed by the tariffs [8]. - The additional tariffs will complicate RH's business further, and Friedman believes that competitors may struggle more with these changes [9].