Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is prioritizing job stability over inflation concerns, indicating a shift in focus towards employment metrics in their monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Employment Concerns - The Fed's recent statements suggest a heightened concern for job growth and stability, reflecting the importance of the labor market in economic recovery [1] - Recent job data shows a steady increase in employment, which may influence the Fed's future policy adjustments [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, the Fed appears less inclined to take aggressive measures that could jeopardize job growth [1] - The central bank is monitoring inflation trends but is currently more focused on ensuring that employment levels remain robust [1]

Joining us now is Jay Clayton. He is the US attorney for the Southern District of New York and a former chairman of the SEC. I'd like to be able to take the president aside and just explain how to explain it because prices in certain sectors are coming down like energy and he's right about that and that could be that that could filter into other parts of the economy and cause inflation which is really never zero or lower.It can be but that's not good. >> That would be bad. >> That would be bad. That would b ...

The CNBC app, global market news in one place. Customizable sections and personalized alerts. Stocks tracking, interactive charts, and market insights, all in your hands.Stay connected, stay informed. Download the CNBC app today. >> Good morning and welcome to Squatbox Europe.I'm Juliana Tatlebomb with Carolyn Roth and these are your headlines. The countdown is on. Markets fully price in a 25 basis point cut at today's Federal Reserve meeting.While deep divisions within the central bank put investors on edg ...

Consumer Spending Trends - Overall consumer spending is still growing, but the pace has slowed, increasing by 13% year-over-year in November, down from 24% in October [2][3] - Seasonally adjusted month-over-month consumer spending was flat in November, the first time in five months it didn't grow [3] - Higher-income consumer spending grew by 26%, while lower-income consumer spending grew by 06%, indicating a divergence [4] - Middle-income consumer spending experienced a pullback, going from up 17% to up only 14% [5] Wage Growth Disparities - Higher-income wage growth was up 4% in November, the highest level in four years [6] - Lower-income households also saw wage increases, going from 1% to 14%, but the difference remains significant [6] - The labor market for lower-income individuals is stabilizing rather than declining [7] Labor Market Insights - The number of accounts receiving a paycheck increased by 02% in November, indicating the labor market is expanding, though at a slower pace than in previous months [10][11] - The number of new households receiving unemployment benefits remains relatively consistent with previous months [13] - The labor market is described as being in a "higher low fire environment," but still expanding [13] Inflation Analysis - Growth in holiday spending is driven by more transactions, suggesting inflation is not accelerating in that area [15][16]

The economy has had a volatile year marked by ongoing headwinds and uncertainties. Persistent inflation, unpredictability around tariffs, and a stock market that many fear is in the midst of an AI-fueled bubble are among the factors impacting consumers’ spending power. Most Read from Fast Company But there is one event today that will hopefully deliver some much-needed certainty to the economy and broader markets: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut announcement. Here’s what you need to know about a ...

The Fed has been behind the curve for years.They incorrectly claimed that inflation was transitory in 2021, they bankrupted banks by raising rates after saying they wouldn’t, and now they are ignoring the incoming deflation.Cut rates. Stimulate the economy. ...

Brazil’s annual inflation slowed to within the central bank’s tolerance range for the first time in 14 month in November, just as policymakers prepare for their final meeting of 2025 https://t.co/HUGk2nXTxi ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economy, highlighting a growth trajectory that is above potential, with GDP expected to exceed forecasts in the upcoming quarter [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth vs. Labor Market**: There is a noted tension between strong output growth and soft labor markets, which is unsustainable without either increased hiring or a slowdown in growth [1]. The expectation is for a rebound in hiring, supported by consumer spending and fiscal/monetary policies, leading to a more balanced economic expansion in the first half of 2026 [1]. - **Global Composite PMI**: The J.P. Morgan global composite PMI indicates a potential annualized GDP growth of nearly 3%, which is over a percentage point stronger than previous projections [2]. The manufacturing PMI suggests a 1.3% annual rise in global industry, with a positive trend in orders relative to inventories [2]. - **Business Spending**: Mixed signals are present regarding business spending, with U.S. Fed regional surveys showing an uptick in capital expenditure, while the global investment goods PMI fell below the neutral mark [3]. This has led to a stall in the global capex nowcaster for the first time since the beginning of the year [3]. - **Employment Trends**: The global employment PMI has decreased, indicating weak job growth, particularly in the U.S., where a significant drop in private hiring was reported [10]. However, a decrease in unemployment insurance claims is a positive sign [10]. - **Consumer Spending**: Real consumer spending in the U.S. was softer than expected, with a flat report for September and a downward revision for August [11]. Despite this, there were rebounds in Chase card data and auto sales in October and November, indicating some resilience [11]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The report anticipates a variety of outcomes from central banks as the global easing cycle concludes. Expectations include one rate hike, eight cuts, and twelve holds by year-end [13]. The Fed is expected to signal a cautious approach to future cuts, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to hike rates due to fiscal policy changes [16]. Additional Important Insights - **Euro Area Resilience**: The Euro area shows signs of resilience, with upward revisions to PMI and GDP growth, indicating a growth rate of 1.6% annualized [18]. Despite trade war impacts, fiscal easing in Germany is expected to bolster growth [18]. - **China's Economic Signals**: China's PMIs suggest a year-end recovery, with positive signals from new export orders and construction PMIs, although services have softened [21]. The forecast for GDP growth in Q4 is 3.0% quarter-over-quarter [21]. - **Trade Agreements**: The status of the USMCA renewal is uncertain, with potential delays in legislative approval until 2027, despite expectations for a preliminary agreement [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch, focusing on the global economic outlook, labor market dynamics, consumer spending trends, and central bank policies, while also highlighting regional insights and trade considerations.

Uh joining us right now to talk more about the broader markets is Megan Shu. She is chief investment strategist at Wilmington Trust, also a CNBC contributor. And thank you for coming in this morning, Elizabeth.Megan, sorry, Elizabeth Shu. That's that's what's in my head, Megan. Thank you.[laughter] >> Um let's talk a little bit about where you see things with the Fed meeting today. I I know you're of the opinion that they should cut and you know this is a pretty difficult time for forecasting with what the ...

Uh joining us right now to talk more about the broader markets is Megan Shu. She is chief investment strategist at Wilmington Trust, also a CNBC contributor. And thank you for coming in this morning, Elizabeth.Megan, sorry, Elizabeth Shu. That's that's what's in my head, Megan. Thank you.[laughter] >> Um let's talk a little bit about where you see things with the Fed meeting today. I I know you're of the opinion that they should cut and you know this is a pretty difficult time for forecasting with what the ...