Fed minutes from the July meeting reveal broad support among governors for holding rates steady, even though two backed a rate cut https://t.co/MnpxfR3R06 ...

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The majority of the Federal Reserve saw inflation risk outweighing employment risk [1] - Several members flagged the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored [1] - Some Fed members suggested the current rate may not be far above neutral [1] - The Fed was already seeing some issues with inflation growing at the end of July [3] - The minutes offer support for the idea that the majority on the Fed isn't going to move if a weak employment report is released unless it's very weak [4] Tariffs Impact - Many noted the full effect of tariffs could take some time [4] - Fed economists were looking for about six months to see the pass-through effects of tariffs, say the end of the third quarter, the beginning of the fourth quarter this year [6] - The Trump administration's on-and-off approach to tariffs complicates the timeline [6] - Companies brought in imports early to build inventories, which are now being run down, leading to expected price increases [7][8] - Home Depot indicated they would have to start raising prices [8] Labor Market & Economic Outlook - The official subject of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is labor markets in transition [20] - The Fed looks at the unemployment rate as a proxy for US growth [22] - The Fed will likely look to the August payrolls report and its impact on the unemployment rate [22] Fed Independence & Political Pressure - Allegations against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook have emerged, with calls for her resignation [10][11] - Removing Lisa Cook wouldn't significantly impact the president's goal of lowering interest rates, but it would allow him to appoint someone more sympathetic to low rates [13] - There are concerns about the Trump administration's efforts to influence public opinion and potentially weaponize the government against Democrats [11][16] - The Fed is independent, at least in terms of the way it acts, and is biased only towards what the economy is telling them to do [26][27]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Morgan Stanley says the Fed won't cut rates this year. https://t.co/1iOMGLF0gA ...

🇺🇸 FED MINUTES: "Many saw inflation risk outweighing employment risk."Imagine Trump's reaction if Powell doesn't cut rates in September. 😂 https://t.co/OnAfS3g6uy ...

Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market is currently experiencing low volume, particularly in Europe and the US, ahead of Fed commentary and Nvidia earnings, suggesting caution in interpreting short-term movements [3] - UBS advises a "wait and see" approach for the remainder of August, particularly regarding AI and big tech stocks, which have already seen significant gains [7][8] - The firm is neither aggressively buying nor selling, expressing strong interest in the credit markets [9] - August is considered a seasonally unusual month, and the recent market downturn has not caused undue alarm among clients, who generally feel positive about their portfolio construction [12][13] Interest Rate Expectations - UBS anticipates an 80-90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [5] - The firm expects a total of 100 basis points of rate cuts between the present and June 2025, with the Fed funds rate potentially landing in the low 3% range [6] - The timing of rate cuts is considered less critical than the overall direction, with the appointment of a new Fed chair potentially acting as a tailwind for markets [6][7] Economic Factors and Consumer Behavior - The labor market will be a key factor in determining future market changes in the third and fourth quarters [5][17] - There is a significant divergence between the high-end and low-end consumer, as well as between goods and services, and staples versus discretionary spending [16] - Credit markets are currently complacent, with investment-grade spreads at a 25-year tight, driven by expectations of future Fed rate cuts [10] AI and Technology - Some argue that there are emerging weaknesses in the AI trade [1] - Clients are increasingly involved in the practical applications of AI, which provides comfort and balances concerns about market volatility [14][15]

Monetary Policy - Israel's central bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the 13th consecutive time [1] Economic Considerations - Policymakers are balancing an economic slowdown against ongoing uncertainty from the nearly two-year war in Gaza [1]

India’s rate-setters decided to pause interest rates to assess the impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Asia’s third largest economy, minutes of the central bank’s policy meeting showed https://t.co/oOAl2xfdVo ...

Let's talk markets, uh, Fed, interest rates, inflation, and so much more with a guy who you probably need to know even better than you may already. David Zervos is here. He's chief market strategist at Jeffre, CNBC contributor, and yes, now he is officially on the list of candidates being considered for the job of Fed chairman.So, good morning. Now, do you have to watch your words in a different way, do you feel like. I I I think that's probably fair to say.I would also say that uh you know I kind of have t ...

Interest Rate & Inflation - Current inflation rate is at 2% [1] - Unemployment is not a significant concern [1] - Interest rates are considered surprisingly high given the inflation and unemployment situation [1] - Suggestion for immediate interest rate cuts [1] Market Recommendation - Call to "unleash the market" [1]

Market Trends & Geopolitical Uncertainty - Chip stocks are moving lower due to potential US government equity stakes, raising governance concerns similar to those seen with Chinese companies [1][2] - Geopolitical uncertainty, including tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine war, contributes to market nervousness [6][11] - Investors are nervous about the geopolitical landscape and equities [11] Central Bank Policy & Inflation - Central bank policy, particularly in the US, is a key factor influencing market sentiment, with expectations of a potential 25 basis point cut being closely watched [4][7] - Inflation remains a concern on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US Federal Reserve expected to maintain a "higher for longer" stance despite White House pressures [7] - The base case for the Fed is a rate cut in September, but no further moves are expected for the next 3 to 6 months, which could negatively impact high-growth names [8] Profit Taking & Market Rotation - Profit-taking is occurring due to market concentration and geopolitical uncertainty, intertwined with concerns about central bank policy [5][9][10] - There's a rotation away from high-valuation tech names, including the Mag 7 and the Ark Innovation ETF, with companies like Palantir entering correction territory [4] Investment Strategy & Global Allocation - The US market looks "toppy" and uncertain, leading to a potential "best of the rest" trade, favoring markets like the UK and Europe [12] - Despite concerns about the UK economy, the FTSE 100 offers compelling businesses with low debt levels and attractive yields [15] - While UK inflation is rising (38% yesterday, expected to rise to 4% in September), the equity market is decoupled from the economy due to international revenues [14][16]