Market Trends & Global Finance News - Ramzan Karmali of Yahoo Finance reports on international finance news for July 21, 2025 [1] - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirms August 1st as a hard deadline for tariffs [1] AI & Stock Market - Yahoo Finance raises the possibility of an AI bubble starting [1] - Market insiders are discussing AI and price-to-earnings ratios for AI stocks [1]

On Thursday, May 15, arguably one of the most important data dumps of the quarter occurred -- and it's possible you missed it. May 15 marked the deadline for institutional investors with at least $100 million in assets under management (AUM) to file Form 13F with the Securities and Exchange Commission. A 13F allows everyday investors to track which stocks Wall Street's leading money managers bought and sold in the most recent quarter (in this instance, the first quarter of 2025). Although 13Fs have their li ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report discusses the stock market dynamics and economic conditions in 2025, drawing parallels with the year 2000. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Playbook**: The report suggests that a good investment strategy for 2025 is to view it as '2000 with some tweaks' [4][3][22]. 2. **Similarities Between 2025 and 2000**: - Both years experienced a countertrend rally in the stock market before a tech bubble deflation [4][6]. - The US economy is not heading towards an imminent recession [4][24]. - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to significantly cut interest rates [4][24]. - Stock market peaks in both years followed unusual 40% rallies in the S&P 500, concentrated in tech stocks (AI in 2025, dot com in 2000) [9][8]. 3. **Differences Between 2025 and 2000**: - The US stock market and government bonds are expected to underperform compared to non-US markets [4][24]. - The dollar is projected to underperform against other major currencies [4][24]. - The AI bubble is less extreme than the dot com bubble in some measures [17][19]. - The trend growth rate of the global economy is lower in 2025, increasing vulnerability to recession [19]. - Global indebtedness is significantly higher in 2025 than in 2000, giving 'bond vigilantes' more power [19]. - The political landscape, particularly the arrival of President Trump 2.0, has affected the haven status of US T-bonds and the dollar [19]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Economic Shock**: In both years, tech stock selloffs were triggered by global growth shocks, with 2025's shock stemming from a trade embargo on China [12][12]. 2. **Labour Market Conditions**: The US labour market in both years showed a rare configuration where labour demand exceeded supply, with job vacancy rates unusually high compared to unemployment rates [11][13]. 3. **Future Projections**: - A countertrend rally in tech stocks is expected through early summer 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching over 6000 before a resumption of the AI bubble's deflation [24]. - A mild recession in the US could occur in 2026 due to a 'negative wealth effect' [24]. - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates significantly in the latter half of 2025, similar to the second half of 2000 [24]. - Preference for UK gilts over US T-bonds and for currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc over the US dollar is advised [24].

The AI bubble has popped and this is the perfect time to search for bargains. Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM ) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD ) stand out as two popular names with strong profit margins and balance sheets but Julian is the leader of the investing group Best Of Breed Growth Stocks where he only shares positions in stocks which have a large probability of delivering large alpha relative to the S&P 500. He also combines growth-oriented principles with strict valuation hurdles to add an addi ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle Corp is aggressively expanding its AI-powered cloud infrastructure, despite cautious market sentiment regarding AI demand and potential overbuilding [1][2][4]. Group 1: AI Demand and Infrastructure Expansion - Oracle is increasing its customer-facing regions from 69 to 101 in the past year, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure [2]. - The company claims that demand for AI is outpacing supply, although this message appears less urgent than in the past [2]. - Oracle's investment in AI data centers reflects confidence in sustained demand, despite concerns about an AI bubble [2][4]. Group 2: Training vs. Inferencing - Oracle argues that for major customers, there is no significant difference between training and inferencing in AI, suggesting a persistent need for AI compute resources [3]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Flexibility - Oracle's leadership emphasizes infrastructure flexibility, stating that GPUs can be repurposed for general computing or storage if AI demand decreases [5]. - The company is showcasing plans for a larger facility in Abilene, Texas, indicating that its AI cloud ambitions are still in the early stages [6]. Group 4: Market Position and Challenges - Oracle's AI-driven cloud expansion is viewed as a long-term strategy, but it faces near-term challenges, particularly high capital expenditures impacting free cash flow [7]. - The company is currently experiencing stock price fluctuations, with a noted decline of 5.41% to $137.97 at the time of publication [7].

Core Insights - A prominent billionaire fund manager, Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management, oversees $26.5 billion in assets and has not sold any shares of Nvidia, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [1][6] - The quarterly Form 13F filings from billionaire money managers provide valuable insights into stock trends and investment strategies, highlighting the contrasting approaches towards Nvidia among these investors [2][3] Investment Trends - Many billionaire fund managers with concentrated portfolios have been selling Nvidia shares, while Coleman remains a steadfast holder, maintaining a significant position of 9,683,550 split-adjusted shares [4][5][6] - The only other focused billionaire buyer of Nvidia is Ole Andreas Halvorsen of Viking Global Investors, who holds a smaller position of 2,031,985 shares [7] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Nvidia dominates the GPU market in high-compute data centers, with its Hopper and Blackwell architectures leading in AI applications, allowing the company to exceed Wall Street's expectations [8] - The scarcity of high-powered AI GPUs has enabled Nvidia to command a premium price, ranging from 100% to 300% above competitors [9] Selling Pressure and Concerns - Notable billionaires, including Philippe Laffont and David Tepper, have sold significant portions of their Nvidia holdings, indicating a cautious outlook despite the company's competitive advantages [10] - Concerns about increasing competition and potential market share erosion from both direct competitors and Nvidia's own customers developing in-house AI chips are prevalent among investors [12][13] Potential Risks - The possibility of an AI bubble forming raises concerns, as historical trends show that transformative technologies often experience bubble-bursting events, which could negatively impact Nvidia's stock [14][15] - Nvidia's reliance on its data center segment for over 88% of net sales in fiscal 2025 makes it vulnerable to market fluctuations and competitive pressures [15]