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X @mert | helius.dev
mert | helius.dev· 2025-09-28 17:13
when someone decides to compete with youthey are indirectly telling you they want to make your wife, children, and future lineage worse offit does not matter whether that's their intention; that is the resultas a result, you have a moral duty to outcompete and destroy ...
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-09-28 15:10
Being first did not guarantee success for Novo Nordisk. But being early may yet pay off for both the Danish pharma giant and its American arch-nemesis https://t.co/uibIPykb9mIllustration: Brett Ryder https://t.co/PfiU0y8gOu ...
中国饮料行业 - 对竞争持谨慎态度及对近期市场动态的看法;买入东鹏饮料-China Beverages_ Cautious on competition and our thoughts on recent market dynamics; Buy Eastroc (on CL)
2025-09-28 14:57
Summary of China Beverages Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Beverages** industry, particularly the **ready-to-drink (RTD)** segment and competition from **freshly-made drinks (FMD)**. - The covered China Beverages names have outperformed the MSCI China Staples Index, with an average increase of approximately **20% YTD** compared to **17% YTD** for the index [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Outlook**: The company adopts a more selective stance in the beverage sector due to rising competition and cautious pricing trends expected into **2026**. Increased promotions and a shift towards larger pack sizes are anticipated by the end of **2025** [1][4]. - **Top Picks**: **Eastroc** is highlighted as a top pick due to its potential for market share gain and portfolio expansion, supported by strong channel execution and resilience against FMD competition [1][4]. - **Nongfu's Performance**: Nongfu is expected to recover market share in packaged water, with an estimated **80%+** market share in the sugar-free tea segment by the end of this year, up from **65%-70%** in **2024** [1][4]. - **Earnings Adjustments**: Earnings for **UPC** and **Tingyi** have been adjusted down by **3%-8%** and **1%-3%** respectively for **2025E-27E** due to slower sales growth trends. Conversely, Nongfu's earnings have been revised up by **0.2%-1.7%** for the same period [1][4]. Competitive Landscape - **FMD Competition**: The competition from FMD brands is intensifying, particularly in **3Q**. The impact on RTD beverages is more pronounced than previously expected, with a projected **3%** volume hit to bottled beverages for the full year **2025** [1][6]. - **Promotional Pressure**: Increased promotions have led to weakened pricing for RTD drinks, with a narrowing price gap between RTD and mass-market FMD [1][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: Historical brand disputes in the beverage industry have shown long-lasting negative impacts on sales and market share dynamics, providing opportunities for competitors to gain market share [1][7][13]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth Expectations**: Expected year-over-year earnings growth for **Nongfu/Eastroc/Tingyi/UPC** in **2H25** is **29%/35%/7%/17%** respectively, while **CR Beverage** is projected to see a **49%** earnings decline [1][4]. - **Cost Trends**: Anticipated **3%-6%** unit cost deflation in **2025** is expected to lead to **2.0-3.3ppt** gross profit margin (GPM) expansion. However, cost benefits are moderating, particularly in **PET/sugar** [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - **Wahaha Brand Dynamics**: The potential launch of a new brand "Wa Xiao Zong" by Hongsheng Group in **2026** could shift market dynamics in the bottled water segment, particularly affecting Wahaha's market share [1][16][17]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report includes scenario analyses predicting potential market share movements for **Nongfu** and **CR Beverage** based on the dynamics surrounding the Wahaha brand dispute [1][20][21]. Conclusion - The China Beverages industry is facing heightened competition and changing market dynamics, particularly from FMD brands. Companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are positioned to capitalize on these changes, while others like UPC and Tingyi may face challenges. The financial outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with adjustments made to earnings forecasts reflecting the competitive landscape.
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-09-26 17:50
For now, the destination for the world’s brightest AI-minds remains obvious—America. But competition from China, Europe and the Gulf is growing https://t.co/xMNtmfIRXF ...
X @Forbes
Forbes· 2025-09-26 10:00
Hungry Competitor: “When you're running, you never look behind you,” Carbone Fine Foods CEO Eric Skae says of Rao's. “I'm looking at one target. I will not sit here and say I never think about those other guys. That's not me.” https://t.co/K69hWjDWEt ...
X @Forbes
Forbes· 2025-09-26 00:15
How To Never Watch The Competition, And Beat Them Every Time https://t.co/y45qETkGyF https://t.co/y45qETkGyF ...
X @IcoBeast.eth🦇🔊
IcoBeast.eth🦇🔊· 2025-09-24 15:01
Market Dynamics & Validation - Competition indicates a market sector possesses Product-Market Fit (PMF) [1] - Intense competition signals a "hot" market trend before mainstream recognition [1] Competitive Landscape Examples - Examples include Apple vs Microsoft, Ethereum vs Solana, Hyperliquid vs Aster, Polymarket vs Kalshi, and Kaito vs Xeet/Cookie/Wallchain [1]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-09-24 01:25
Regulatory Focus - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has released the "Basic Requirements for Service Management of Online Food Delivery Platforms (Draft for Comments)" for public feedback [1] - The draft aims to regulate service management, improve service quality, reduce merchant operating burdens, and guide fair competition among platforms [1] Fee Structure and Transparency - The draft restricts the types of fees that online food delivery platforms can charge merchants, preventing arbitrary new fees [1] - The draft specifies detailed requirements for fee disclosure, including the method, content, settlement details, and promotion effectiveness, to enhance transparency and prevent opaque charges [1]
'Burning Our Future': MIT’s Rafael Reif Warns About Government Research Cuts
Bloomberg Television· 2025-09-21 12:00
Westin: This is a story about trees not growing to the sky, even if those trees are holding up an important part of the U.S. economy. President Trump has made no secret of his quest to cut funding to some of the nation's most prestigious universities. - We want money to go to all universities, not Harvard.There have $52 billion. - Harvard's voice is loud and clear. Westin: To date, much of the discussion has centered on the politics of it all, whether higher education has gotten too "woke" and whether it's ...
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-09-21 10:00
The biennial competition, a team event pitting Europe against America, has become a huge attraction, drawing raucous crowds unburdened by the sport’s expectations of decorum https://t.co/HuAtamLQs1 ...