And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick here with Katie Greipel taking you through to that closing bell. It's a global simulcast and it starts now.Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec, join us from the radio booth. Welcome to our audiences across all of our bloomberg platforms, television, radio, a partnership with YouTube, with an S&P 500 Carol Massar perched at a record high. Yeah, pretty interesting, but it feels like it's kind of limping along.We're coming off our b ...

Market Overview - The market is showing resilience despite ongoing government shutdown concerns, with the S&P potentially closing above 6,800, the Russell above 2,500, and the Dow above 47,000 [1] - Recent inflation data has been supportive of the Federal Reserve's objectives, contributing to market stability [1] Credit and Valuation Concerns - There have been emerging credit concerns and questions regarding valuations and vendor financing, yet the market continues to trend upward [2] - A minor reset in prices was sufficient for the market to regain momentum after previous slippage [3] Market Dynamics - The market experienced a "gap and nap" pattern, with a 1% increase at the open but little selling pressure, indicating a lack of urgency among investors [4] - The current upward trend is characterized by more buying than selling, reminiscent of market behavior in early 2021 [5] Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors are actively participating in the market, showing a preference for companies with no profits, which may sustain upward momentum until market complacency is identified [6][7] Future Economic Outlook - Concerns about a significant economic slowdown, particularly related to China in 2026, are noted, but current data does not indicate such a trend, providing a foundation for continued market rally [8]

Core Insights - The current government shutdown is in its fourth week, making it the second-longest in U.S. history, affecting approximately 900,000 federal workers who are furloughed and not receiving paychecks or government services [1][2] Market Reaction - Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the stock market, represented by the S&P 500 index, has shown relative stability, experiencing minor fluctuations but remaining flat overall since the shutdown began on October 1 [2] - Historical data indicates that the stock market's performance during past shutdowns has varied significantly, with losses ranging from 4.4% to gains of 10.3%, although most shutdowns post-1990 have resulted in gains [4] Historical Context - Following the longest shutdown from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, the S&P 500 gained 18% in the first 100 days and 36% a year later, while the third-longest shutdown from December 16, 1995, to January 6, 1996, saw a 6.2% gain in the first 100 days and 26% in the first year [6]

Market Sentiment - Bullish investors are favored in the market, as historical trends suggest they often prevail over bearish sentiments [1] - The market is viewed as a collection of companies rather than a random assortment of assets, emphasizing the importance of company fundamentals [1] Government Shutdown Impact - Concerns regarding the government shutdown's effect on the market are noted, but historical data indicates that shutdowns typically do not significantly impact market performance [1] - Despite the ongoing shutdown, stock averages managed to close positively, indicating resilience in the market [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming release of the consumer price index is highlighted, with a suggestion for investors to remain calm even if the numbers are higher than expected [2] - Fears surrounding U.S.-China tensions may be exaggerated, as there appears to be a compromise despite negative rhetoric from political leaders [2] Earnings Season Insights - The initial weeks of the earnings season have alleviated some investor concerns, with many companies already accounting for tariffs in their financial reports [3] - Major financial institutions reporting low default rates on loans, despite fears stemming from regional banks revealing poor loan performance [3] Historical Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has significantly increased from 1,000 to approximately 46,000 since the phrase "get out now" was first popularized, illustrating the long-term upward trend in the market [4]

Most Americans are yet to feel the pain of the government shutdown. Yet the economic costs will pile up the longer the saga drags on https://t.co/m5uRJSDJZV ...

The NHL is striking an official partnership deal with Koshi and Poly Market. This is the first major sports league to partner with the prediction market and joining us right now to talk about it is TK Mansour who is the CEO and co-founder of Kiy. And TK, thank you for joining us this morning.Um, this is a big deal. It's the first of the major sports uh leagues to actually sign a deal, sign a partnership like this. And I guess I wonder how how did this come about.Well, I I totally agree. You know, this is a ...

Market Performance - S&P 500 decreased by 0.10% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.13% and Nasdaq fell by 0.30% [1] - Despite ongoing trade tensions and one of the longest government shutdowns in history, the markets are showing resilience [1] Earnings Season - Market enthusiasm is driven by the earnings season, indicating positive investor sentiment [1] - The overall market performance suggests that investors are focusing on potential gains rather than geopolitical concerns [1]

Thanks for joining us on Bloomberg TV and Radio alongside Julie Fine. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington as we bring you an important conversation from the nation's capital. He's just.Back from the airport. The senator from Texas, Ted Cruz, Republican from Texas, is with us here live and in studio. It's great to have you in the flesh.Senator, thank you for joining us again on Bloomberg. Joe, Julie, great to be with you both. Happy day 20.If it's happy, maybe it's not. But I have to start with you here on the shu ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of renewed S&P 500 volatility due to tariff talks and a government shutdown, leading investors to rely on secondary economic indicators for insights into the U.S. economy [1] NFIB Small Business Survey - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, marking the first decline in three months and coming in below the forecast of 100.6 [2] - Uncertainty among small business owners surged, reaching the fourth-highest level in over 51 years, despite the index remaining above its historical average for five consecutive months [2][3] - Labor quality and taxes are the top concerns for small business owners, with significant issues arising from supply chain disruptions and inflation [3] - The net percentage of owners reporting higher profits increased to its highest level in nearly four years, highlighting the sector's influence on the overall economy [3] Regional Manufacturing: Philadelphia & New York - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 36 points to -12.8, the lowest since April and below the forecast of 8.6, indicating a sharp slowdown in regional activity [4] - Conversely, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for New York increased by 19.4 points to 10.7, exceeding the forecast of -1.8, suggesting a rebound in manufacturing activity [4] - Both regions reported elevated price pressures and stronger future optimism, with firms expressing greater confidence in the next six months [4][5] NAHB Housing Market Index - Builder confidence improved, with the NAHB Housing Market Index rising five points to 37, the highest since April and above the expected reading of 33 [6] - All three components of the index—current sales, expected sales, and prospective buyer traffic—experienced their largest monthly increases since early 2024 [7] Zillow Home Value Index - U.S. home values rose for the first time in seven months in September, with the Zillow Home Value Index increasing to $363,932, a nominal rise of 0.1% from August [8] - However, inflation-adjusted home values fell for the seventeenth consecutive month, declining 0.3% from August and down 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a challenging housing market [9] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 posted a 1.7% increase last week, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) also rising by 1.7% [10] - The 10-year note yield fell below 4.00% for the first time in over a year, while the 2-year note reached its lowest level since September 2022 [11] Economic Data in the Week Ahead - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a sparse economic calendar, making the available reports more significant [12] - Upcoming releases include Existing Home Sales figures, the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which will provide insights into consumer sentiment and economic growth [12]

Core Insights - American Express (Amex) reported significant increases in spending across key sectors, with a 14% year-over-year rise in front cabin airline ticket purchases and a 9% increase in restaurant spending in the third quarter [3] - Despite economic uncertainties, Amex's affluent customer base appears resilient, insulating the company from broader economic challenges [4][7] - Amex exceeded Wall Street expectations in various categories, reporting $421 million in card member spending, a 9% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024 [5] Financial Performance - Amex achieved a net income of $2.9 billion for the quarter, marking a 16% increase over the same quarter in 2024 [6] - Total revenue for the quarter reached $18.43 billion, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is encouraging corporate clients to utilize their business cards more frequently for expenses, as a proactive measure against potential economic downturns [6] - Analysts from Jefferies noted that the momentum in Amex's performance was supported by better-than-expected spending volume [5]