Markets wrapped up the third quarter on a strong note, defying September’s reputation as one of the toughest months for the US stock market. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) each logged their best third quarter since 2020 and strongest September since 2010, while the Russell 2000 (^RUT) recorded its best Q3 since 2009 as the Federal Reserve kicked off its rate-cutting cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed at a record high. Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accou ...

The US Transportation Department plans to insulate air traffic control services and training for new employees from a government shutdown, keeping vital aviation functions running https://t.co/KT2z6F8i69 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential US government shutdown poses a significant risk to the dollar, compounding existing pressures from interest rate cuts and political challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown on the Dollar - The likelihood of a government shutdown is high, which could negatively impact the dollar [2]. - Historical data shows that during previous shutdowns, such as the 35-day closure in late 2018, the dollar weakened significantly, dropping around 2% during that period [3]. - Currently, the dollar has experienced a third consecutive daily decline, down 0.7%, and has fallen over 8% this year [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Volatility - Implied volatility in euro-dollar options tends to increase ahead of shutdowns, indicating that traders are pricing in potential disruptions [5]. - Historical patterns show that while implied volatility rises, realized volatility may not always align, as seen during the 2018/19 shutdown where realized volatility remained subdued [6]. - Market sentiment regarding the dollar has shifted back to neutral, indicating a reduction in bullish bias as the potential for a shutdown looms [7]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Analysts expect modest dollar weakness against currencies like the yen, Swiss franc, and euro if a shutdown occurs, but a quick resolution could limit further declines [8].

Where are we on the shutdown. What might cause this actual shutdown. What is it that the Republicans want or won't do. What is it the Democrats want and won't do.So right now, both sides aren't really talking to each other. They're sort of in this weird waiting game at the moment as we get closer to midnight. Now, I think the Democratic, from their perspective, there are two wants going into this shutdown.The first is really being driven by the House progressives, and that is they want to be seen being very ...

🇺🇸 LATEST: Here’s What Happens to Solana, Litecoin ETFs in U.S. Government Shutdown@HeleneBraunn reports.https://t.co/9Vb7SpL9Yg ...

🇺🇸 JIM CRAMER: "Investors should not worry about a U.S. government shutdown." https://t.co/pzHLFwHgkC ...

US stocks wavered on Tuesday, wrapping up their best September in 15 years on a cautious note ahead of a potential government shutdown https://t.co/t9d2R4kgm5 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of a looming government shutdown on the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which is facing its first weekly loss of September despite a record close [2][10] - Historical data indicates that stocks generally perform poorly after the onset of a government shutdown, with the SPX showing an average return of -0.74% one week after a shutdown begins [6][8] - The last government shutdown in December 2018 was an exception, where the SPX gained over 9% in the month following the shutdown, contrasting with the overall trend of underperformance during shutdowns [6][7] Group 2 - The worst historical performance for the SPX occurred during the 1995 shutdown, which saw a drop of nearly 7.9%, suggesting that current levels near 6,640 could fall to around 6,115 if similar conditions arise [7] - The article provides a detailed table of past shutdowns, showing varying impacts on the SPX, with the average return one month after a shutdown being -0.78% [8][9] - The article highlights the volatility in the market as the deadline approaches, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) serving as a potential indicator for investors [10]

A government shutdown could provide further fuel for the rally in gold and weigh on the dollar, though history shows that stocks and bonds are unlikely to suffer https://t.co/VgMZyr9SUz ...

For 3 minutes on the markets. Mark, good morning to you. So let's start with the impact of shot down and in particular on the US dollar.ICC sitting talking about how this is something that's going to weigh on the dollar. And I think from reading your notes, you think that that's the sort of path of least resistance for the dollar right now. Absolutely.I think that's probably the easiest way to kind of play this kind of theme. I think overall, what government shutdown means is not major economic impact unles ...