Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden in Chicago alongside Sambatis at the New York Stock Exchange. Some final thoughts on today's session.For me, the US trade deficit came out totaling $91.5% billion for 2025. That was only slightly narrower than the 93.5% billion the year before. Despite our ongoing tariffs, exports rose 6.2% to 3.43% trillion, but imports climbed to 4.33% trillion, pushing the goods deficit.That's the piece that's most impacted by tariff policy to a record $1.24% trillion. De ...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was down 267.50 (-0.5386%) points today, closing at 49,395.16. Market sentiment turned cautious as Dow Futures (YM=F) also dropped 300.00 (-0.6034%) to 49,422.00. The primary narrative was a hawkish shift in monetary policy expectations following a higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report. This economic data fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay anticipated interest rate cuts, triggering a broad sell-off in rate-sensitive sectors as investor ...

The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate slipped this week to its lowest level in more than three years, but remains around 6% in the same narrow range it has been in this year.The benchmark 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 6.01% from 6.09% last week, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. One year ago, the rate averaged 6.85%.The modest pullback brings the average rate to its lowest level since Sept. 8, 2022, when it was 5.89%. That was the last time the average rate was below 6%.Mortgage rates ...

The central bank's preferred inflation gauge is expected to show prices rose faster in December. ...

Market Overview: A Day of RetreatU.S. stock indexes finished lower on Thursday, February 19th, 2026, as investors grappled with a combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market's downward trajectory was further fueled by a "good news is bad news" reaction to robust economic data, which suggested that the central bank may keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously anticipated.By the closing bell at 4:00 PM ET, the S&P 5 ...

The dollar index (DXY00) rallied to a 3.5-week high on Thursday and finished up by +0.19%.  Stronger-than-expected US economic news on Thursday boosted the dollar, as weekly jobless claims fell to a 5-week low, and the Feb Philadelphia business outlook survey unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high.  The dollar also has some positive carryover from Wednesday, when the hawkish minutes of the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting stated that "several" officials suggested the Fed may need to raise interest rates if inflation st ...

Treasuries ticked higher in choppy trading, ending a two-day selloff, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing concerns about the outlook for inflation. Yields were mixed, with the benchmark 10-year note falling to 4.07% and policy-sensitive two-year note yields marginally rising to 3.47%. Most Read from Bloomberg The market pared steeper losses earlier in the session after President Donald Trump’s comments about negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, warning that the nation had 10 t ...

Trade Deficit Overview - The trade deficit surged to $70 billion in December, marking a 33% increase from November [1] - Despite this spike, the overall trend in trade has been positive, with trade deficits generally decreasing over time [2][3] Economic Impact - Net exports have been a significant positive contributor to GDP, which is currently running close to 3% [3] - The trade deficit remains largely unchanged year-over-year, indicating that tariffs have shifted trade rather than significantly altering the deficit [5] Inflation and Economic Projections - Current CPI stands at 2.4%, similar to levels seen in April, suggesting that inflation concerns may have been overstated [8] - The anticipated economic downturn related to trade and inflation has not materialized as expected over the past 10 months [7][9] Future Trade Trends - There are signs of reshoring occurring slowly, contributing positively to trade revenues and improving the budget deficit to GDP ratio, which is now at 5.7% [8] - Projections for the trade deficit suggest limited improvement, with some forecasts indicating a potential increase rather than a decrease [10][11] Treasury Management - The Treasury Secretary has successfully aimed to reduce the budget deficit, and future strategies regarding short-term versus long-term issuance could impact the deficit further [12][13]

Investors and the White House may be betting on multiple interest-rate cuts this year, but the Federal Reserve just delivered a warning: The next move could be up, not down. Minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee released Feb. 18 show several Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates if sticky inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s right: a resumption of interest-rate hikes if the nation’s labor market continues to stabilize but inflation persists. “Sev ...

Investors are dealing with a bout of Walmart (WMT) jitters. Shares of Walmart (WMT) seesawed on Thursday following below-consensus outlooks for the first quarter and full year. The company's stock dropped in early trading before reversing losses. The company checked a lot of boxes for the bulls. Operating profits grew faster than sales at all of Walmart's business segments. E-commerce sales rose by double-digit percentages at Walmart US and Sam's Club. And the retail behemoth uncorked a new $30 billion ...