All right, let's talk markets. Ahead of a big week, investors paying close attention to fighting between Israel and Iran as well as the Fed. The central bank's going to be issuing its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.And right now, we want to bring in Lori Calvacina. She is head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. And Lori, we thought we had a little bit of idea of how the markets were headed.We've been looking at inflation coming down. We thought maybe that was going to help the Fed get ...

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These days, waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate is a bit like waiting for Godot: the arrival date for the long-anticipated monetary policy move keeps getting pushed into the future. https://t.co/X4M4yzK9FN ...

Company Overview - Texas Capital (TCBI) shares increased by 5.1% to $76.05 in the last trading session, with a notable trading volume compared to its previous 0.3% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.29 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 61.3%, with revenues projected at $298.92 million, up 12% from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings and Market Sentiment - Solid job market data has led to expectations of interest rate cuts being pushed to later in the year, which is likely to benefit banks' net interest income and margin, resulting in increased investor optimism towards Texas Capital stock [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for Texas Capital has been revised slightly higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions that typically correlates with stock price appreciation [4] Industry Context - Texas Capital is part of the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, where Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR) also operates, having closed 2.3% higher at $129.22 in the last trading session [4] - Cullen/Frost's consensus EPS estimate remains unchanged at $2.27, representing a 2.7% increase from the previous year, and it also holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5]

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/04 注：沪深300、上证50、中证500的10年利率用10年期AAA企业债利率，标普500用美国10年期国债利率，德国DAX用德国10年期国债利率 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.460 105.690 108.685 105.960 涨跌（%） 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4641% 1.5877% 1.6520% 日度变化(BP) -24.00 -11.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/03 | 4.456 | 4.637 | 3.189 | 2.524 | 3.4 ...

May 27, 2025 10:12 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global May 27 Sharp super-long JGB rally amid speculation for lower long-end issuance; positive EU and US trade developments support US assets; USTs bull-flatten; miss in France CPI; LatAm currencies outperform; Fed's Barkin warns of effects of uncertainty; DXY at 99.58 (0.5%); US 10y at 4.444% (-6.7bp) Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (Euro Area Rates Strategy: More Room to Go; Hong Kong Macro Strategy, Economics, Property & Bank ...

日本央行的政策利率仍比该国通胀率低3个百分点，市场预期的下一次加息可能进一步推迟。市场预期 日本央行今年年底前加息25个基点的概率为64%，明显低于1月底时的满仓押注。 5月30日，根据彭博对日本九大寿险公司财报的分析，截至2024年3月底的财政半年度，这些金融巨头将 其海外资产的对冲比例（防止日元升值带来损失的措施）从六个月前的45.2%降低到了44.4%，并较上 年度的63%大幅下降，创下十四年来的最低水平。 这意味着这些寿险公司降低了对日元升值的押注。换句话说，它们认为日元升值的概率相对之前有所降 低，因此减少了对冲操作。而这一趋势已经持续三年，即便在特朗普政府政策引发美元外汇剧烈波动的 背景下，仍未停止。 三井住友信托银行策略师Ayako Sera在东京表示，日元重现历史性强势的可能性降低，因为日元实际利 率太低了。 寿险公司认为日元展现过去那种强势的可能性降低，并感到有必要持有未对冲的海外债券以 保持对外汇风险的敞口。日元的实际利率实在太低了。 低利率与高对冲成本双重打击 日元前景依然黯淡，但美联储降息可能改变局面 掉期市场显示，美联储最早9月重启降息的概率为83%。美国利率下降通常有助于降低日本投 ...

Watch the bond market. The bond market is the basis. It's the backbone of all markets.It is the risk-free meaning defaultree probably default-free um interest rate that determines what all asset returns are going to be. And when there is a breakdown of the supply demand picture for the bond market, you see a certain type of market action, you see long rates rising relative to short rates. You see the currency go down.You see gold go up because there's a movement out of that bond market because there's a sup ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, focusing on government bonds and monetary policy implications. Core Insights and Arguments - **Government Bond Issuance**: Last week, the issuance of government bonds reached 2.3 trillion, leading to increased funding demand and a tightening of the financial environment [1] - **Financing Demand Trends**: Since April, a decline in financing demand has driven down funding prices, with actual interest rates rising, potentially leading to further contraction in financing demand and an improvement in bank liability gaps, suggesting a more relaxed overall financial environment [1][7] - **Government Bond Supply**: The supply of government bonds in Q2 is expected to be limited compared to Q1, with net financing reaching a new high since November last year, indicating that the peak impact of government bond supply may have passed [1][8] - **Central Bank Liquidity**: The central bank has injected significant liquidity but shows no intention of major easing, maintaining a cautious stance on monetary policy despite the current low inflation [1][10] - **Key Observational Indicators**: The most critical indicators are the liability pressure on large banks and their inventory levels, which reflect potential risks in the financial system [1][11] - **Interest Rate Predictions**: Overnight rates are expected to remain between 1.4% and 1.5%, while term rates are projected to be between 1.5% and 1.6%, indicating continued pricing of funding inventory [1][14] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Fiscal Deposits**: The accumulation of fiscal deposits has significantly influenced liquidity, with a notable increase of 1.2 trillion in the first four months of the year, which is expected to decline as the peak of fiscal supply passes [1][9] - **Market Sentiment**: Recent tightening of funds, particularly on Fridays, has affected market sentiment, with fluctuations in overnight and 7-day rates [3][4] - **Economic Growth Dependency**: The economy's reliance on external demand is highlighted, with a shift from steep yield curves to flatter ones anticipated due to weakening internal demand indicators [2][15][17] - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised to adapt their strategies based on the changing yield curve shapes, as the overall liquidity risk in the market is expected to remain low in the coming months [2][18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China.

Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.69%, 1.95%, and 0.58% respectively in the last trading week [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in April, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021 [2] - The producer price index (PPI) declined by 0.5% in April, with a 12-month increase of 2.4% [2] - Retail sales increased by 0.1% in April, aligning with market expectations [2] - Consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8% in May, the lowest in its history [2] Company Performance - IHS Holding Limited's shares increased by 33.6% since being upgraded to Zacks Rank 1 on March 21 [3] - British Land Company PLC returned 16% since its upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 on March 21 [4] - Stantec Inc. and Bankinter, S.A. saw share increases of 21.4% and 10.8% respectively after their upgrades to Outperform [8] - Axon Enterprise, Inc. and Quanta Services, Inc. gained 23.6% and 18.1% respectively over the past 12 weeks [11] Portfolio Performance - The Zacks Model Portfolio of Rank 1 stocks outperformed the S&P 500 index by over 12 percentage points since 1988, with an annualized average return of +23.5% [5][7] - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned +18.41% in 2024, compared to +25.04% for the S&P 500 index [12] - The Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) returned +3.20% in Q1 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 index's -4.30% decline [16] - The Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) returned +5.74% in Q1 2025, compared to the S&P 500 index's -2.41% pullback [19] Long-term Performance - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +1832.3% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's +434.2% [22] - The Zacks Focus List portfolio has an annualized return of +11.33% since 2004, compared to +9.95% for the S&P 500 index [14]