Core Viewpoint - A group of investors has filed a lawsuit against Dow Inc. for failing to adequately disclose the impact of tariffs on its business, marking the first investor class action related to the tariffs imposed during President Trump's administration [1][10]. Group 1: Legal Implications - The lawsuit against Dow Inc. is indicative of a broader trend where investors may feel misled by companies' optimistic messaging regarding their financial health amid tariff impacts [2][10]. - There is a growing risk of litigation for companies as the effects of tariffs become evident in financial results, potentially leading to more lawsuits similar to the Dow case [5][10]. - Legal experts suggest that plaintiffs' lawyers are likely to exploit stock price declines to claim that companies mismanaged or miscommunicated their financial outlooks [3][6]. Group 2: Insurance Market Response - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to increased demand for Directors and Officers (D&O) liability insurance, as companies seek protection against potential lawsuits [7][8]. - Insurers are observing heightened interest in D&O coverage, reflecting the current climate of uncertainty and the associated litigation risks [6][7]. - While D&O coverage for companies is less commonly purchased, there may be a shift in interest due to the emerging risks from tariff-related allegations [8]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Company Performance - Investors are increasingly concerned about the transparency of companies' communications regarding their financial performance, especially in light of disappointing results attributed to tariffs [9]. - In Dow's case, investors reacted negatively to the company's second-quarter results, which included a dividend cut and blamed tariffs, despite prior assurances of resilience [9]. - The expectation is that more tariff-related securities class action lawsuits will emerge as companies navigate the complexities of tariff impacts on their operations [12].

Core Insights - The Nintendo Switch 2 has sold over 10 million units in its first four months, significantly surpassing its predecessor's sales pace [2][3] - Nintendo has raised its sales forecast for the Switch 2 to 19 million units by March 2026, up from an earlier estimate of 15 million [2] - The Switch 2 is selling at a price of $450, which is a 50% increase compared to the original Switch's launch price [6] Sales Performance - The Switch 2 achieved sales of 10.36 million units since its launch on June 5, 2023, compared to 4.7 million units for the original Switch in the same timeframe [2] - The Switch 2 is recognized as the fastest-selling gaming console of all time, with over 3.5 million units sold within the first four days of its release [3] Market Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the higher price of the Switch 2 may have been influenced by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which affected manufacturing costs [6] - Despite the price increase, consumer confidence remains strong, indicating brand loyalty and demand for the Switch 2 [4] Game Sales - Over 20 million games for the Switch 2 have been sold in the first four months, with notable titles like "Mario Kart World" and "Donkey Kong Bananza" contributing to these figures [5] - Approximately 8 million of the game units sold were bundled with the Switch 2 consoles [5] Competitive Landscape - The original Nintendo Switch is nearing the sales figures of the Nintendo DS, with 154.01 million units sold, just shy of the DS's 154.02 million [7] - The Switch has the potential to surpass Sony's PlayStation 2, which holds the record for the best-selling console at 160 million units [7]

Market Reaction - Stocks are experiencing a pullback, influenced by comments from CEOs David Solomon and Ted Pick regarding a potential 10% to 20% correction over the next one to two years [1][2] - A 10% to 15% correction in a bull market is considered normal and could be a healthy sign for the market, allowing for reassessment of valuations [2][3] Market Conditions - Recent trading sessions have shown a spike in the repo market, indicating that some financial institutions may need capital, leading to increased high-yield credit spreads [4] - Despite the pullback, the market is still making higher highs and higher lows, maintaining the 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 [5] Volatility and Seasonal Trends - The VIX index is currently at 18, with expectations of a correction being discussed for some time [7] - November is traditionally a good month for stocks, raising questions about the duration of the current market conditions [7] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 35th day, with a lack of economic data potentially reducing market volatility [9][10] - As the holiday season approaches, the impact of the shutdown may prompt Congress to negotiate a deal, affecting market sentiment [12] Federal Reserve Outlook - The labor market is a primary focus for Federal Reserve members, with indications that hiring is slowing, which may influence future monetary policy [13][15] - Market expectations suggest that a rate cut in December remains a possibility due to current economic trajectories [14] Company Focus: Humana - Humana is highlighted as a company to watch, particularly due to its exposure to Medicare and potential market share gains from United Health [18][20] - The stock is showing a bullish technical pattern, and a strong earnings report could positively impact the broader health insurance sector [19][20] Company Focus: Chemico (CCJ) - Chemico is noted for its involvement in uranium deals with the U.S. government, with potential for additional partnerships being a key point of interest [21][22] - The company's operations in Kazakhstan and Canada may benefit from reduced Russian uranium supplies, presenting a favorable outlook [22]

Q2 2025 Performance - Harley-Davidson reported diluted EPS of $0.88[6] - HDMC revenue decreased by 23% year-over-year[6] - Global motorcycle shipments decreased by 28% year-over-year, primarily due to planned dealer inventory reduction[6] - Global motorcycle retail sales decreased by 15% year-over-year[6] - Global dealer inventories decreased by 28% compared to Q2 '24[6] - The cost of new or increased tariffs implemented in '25 was $13 million in Q2 '25[6] - HDFS operating income margin was 27.1%[6] HDFS Transaction - Strategic partners valued the HDFS business at approximately 1.75x post-transaction book value[7] - HDFS will sell approximately two-thirds of HDFS future retail loan originations at a premium on an annual basis for five years[7] - The transaction unlocks $1.25 billion in discretionary cash, representing approximately 40% of current Harley-Davidson market capitalization[7] - HDFS has agreed to sell over $5 billion of existing gross consumer retail loan receivables and residual interests in securitized consumer loan receivables at a premium[7]

Treasury Secretary is joining us now. Uh Scott Besson, we we worked on that that segue. Uh Mr.. Treasury Secretary, I hope you liked it. How are you. Good good to see you.>> Good morning, Joe. Good to see you. >> You uh let's talk tariffs and and and uh since it's front and center for everyone with with this beginning now at at Scotas, you have said you're going and um you want to be in the front row.I think you're I think your chances are good if you say that's where you'd like to sit. Uh, look, Joe, I I t ...

Group 1 - The discussion revolves around the potential impact of the Supreme Court's decisions on the president's policies, particularly regarding tariffs and negotiation authority [1][2] - The importance of maintaining a robust manufacturing ecosystem in the US and globally is emphasized, especially in light of threats to shutdowns [2] - The administration's stance on advanced AI chips, particularly Nvidia's Blackwell chips, is debated, with concerns about China gaining access to these technologies [3][4] Group 2 - The rapid evolution of technology, particularly in the semiconductor industry, is highlighted, with Blackwell chips potentially becoming less effective in the near future [4][5] - China's long-term strategy regarding rare earth materials is discussed, indicating that this has been a planned effort for decades rather than a reaction to recent events [6] - The relationship between the US and China is described as improving, with upcoming state visits and meetings planned, suggesting a more stable diplomatic environment [7][8]

Financial Performance - Sales decreased to $809 million in Q3 2025, a 13% decrease compared to $935 million in Q3 2024[16] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $44 million in Q3 2025, a 46% decrease compared to $82 million in Q3 2024[16] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 5.5% in Q3 2025, a 320 bps decrease compared to 8.7% in Q3 2024[16] - Net cash used in operating activities was $(38) million in Q3 2025, compared to $78 million provided by operating activities in Q3 2024[45] - Free cash flow was $(142) million in Q3 2025, compared to $(40) million in Q3 2024[45] Revenue Analysis - Core revenue decreased by 10% due to lower volume/mix[16] - The Q3 2025 revenue bridge shows a decrease of $102 million due to volume/mix and a decrease of $44 million due to the Court-Ordered Towanda Divestiture[18] - Year-to-date core revenue is down 13%[50] Regional Performance - North America net revenue decreased to $546 million in Q3 2025, compared to $678 million in Q3 2024, a 13% decrease[23] - North America Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $38 million in Q3 2025, compared to $75 million in Q3 2024[23] - Europe net revenue increased to $263 million in Q3 2025, compared to $257 million in Q3 2024, a 2% increase[23] Outlook and Guidance - The company updated its 2025 guidance, projecting net revenue of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $105 million to $120 million[32] - The company expects a high single-digit volume decline in North America and a mid single-digit volume decline in Europe[30]

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

Core Viewpoint - The prediction markets are currently underestimating the likelihood of the Trump administration winning a court ruling regarding tariffs, with estimates around 40% while some believe it is above 50% [2]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The administration has alternative trade laws to implement tariffs if the court ruling is unfavorable, although these alternatives have limitations [3]. - The outcome of the court case may not significantly impact current tariffs but could influence future administrations' use of the AIPA [5]. - Business leaders express a preference for maintaining existing tariffs for planning certainty, as a ruling against them could lead to uncertainty and alternative tactics from the administration [7]. Group 2: Business Adaptation - Larger companies have adapted to tariffs by restructuring supply chains, while smaller niche companies may struggle and face potential bankruptcy [9]. - The impact of tariffs is not uniform across the industry; larger firms may find ways to manage, while smaller firms could face dire consequences [10].