Group 1 - US inflation data showed a year-over-year CPI of 2.7% for November, lower than the expected 3.1%, with core inflation at 2.6%, which typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin [3] - The November inflation report is considered unreliable due to a six-week government shutdown that led to estimates rather than actual market data, particularly affecting rents and services [4] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the distortion in inflation data and maintains a cautious stance, indicating no immediate need for further rate cuts, which impacts Bitcoin's trading behavior as it is increasingly viewed as a macro asset [5] Group 2 - Despite three rate cuts, real yields on 10-year TIPS remain around 1.9%, reducing the urgency for investors to chase Bitcoin compared to the negative real rates seen in 2020-21 [7] - Bitcoin's price struggles to break the $90,000 mark, indicating a significant sell wall that is being actively refreshed, suggesting strategic selling rather than panic [1][2]

Economic Insecurity - Households face greater risks and shocks compared to businesses, with increasing costs and deteriorating insurance options [1] - Personal insecurity is a hidden crisis in the American economy, affecting even those who are generally stable [1][2] - The economy is becoming increasingly unaffordable, with rising costs in childcare, education, and housing [2] Labor Market and Income - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with stagnant wages and limited hiring opportunities [12][13] - Workers in early career stages are experiencing slower income growth, while those in their early 50s are seeing paychecks shrink relative to inflation [14] - Financial anxiety is prevalent across all socioeconomic levels, driven by various factors including rent pressure and irregular income streams [14] Healthcare Costs - Significant increases in health insurance premiums are expected, with some individuals facing a 25% rise in costs [4] - The healthcare system is described as broken, contributing to financial insecurity for many [8][21] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer sentiment regarding financial situations has declined, with expectations for personal finance 12% lower than at the beginning of the year [5] - The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index remains elevated, indicating ongoing economic anxiety [5] - Inflation continues to be a concern, affecting consumer behavior and spending decisions [10] Structural Issues - Long-standing structural weaknesses in the economy, such as the rising cost of childcare and inadequate housing supply, are exacerbating current challenges [8] - The unpredictability of the economy is leading to hesitance in consumer spending and investment decisions [15][16] Emergency Financial Assistance - There has been an increase in grant applications for emergency relief, highlighting the financial struggles faced by many working individuals [20][21] - Food insecurity among working people is a significant issue, with many unable to manage surprise expenses [21]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 3.3% [1] - Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, following a contraction of 0.6% in the first quarter, indicating a 2.5% annualized growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] GDP Components - The increase in real GDP in the third quarter was driven by higher consumer spending, exports, and government spending, although this was partially offset by a decrease in investment [5] - Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose by 3% in the third quarter, slightly above the 2.9% increase in the second quarter [8] Inflation Metrics - The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.4% in the third quarter, up from a 2% increase in the second quarter [9] - The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% in the third quarter, compared to a 2.1% increase in the prior quarter [9] Future Estimates - The third-quarter GDP figure is subject to revision, with the final estimate scheduled for release on January 22 [12][14]

Core Insights - The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, surpassing expectations and indicating tighter monetary conditions may persist [2] - Core PCE inflation increased to 2.9%, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] - Real personal consumption expenditures rose by 3.5%, indicating strong consumer spending [3] Impact on Crypto Markets - Strong economic growth reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts, which could lead to higher rates being maintained for an extended period [4] - This environment historically pressures altcoins more than Bitcoin, affecting their performance negatively [4] - Bitcoin showed relative stability, trading near $87,800 with a market cap above $1.75 trillion, indicating limited panic selling [5] Market Dynamics - Higher interest rates increase returns on cash and bonds, making liquidity more selective [6] - Speculative assets, including altcoins, may struggle to attract new capital in this environment [6]

Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence data for December came in at 89.1%, below the expected 91, but higher than November's reading, which was the second lowest since the pandemic [6][8] - The current conditions index has significantly declined, indicating consumers are feeling worse about their financial situation, with a notable drop into negative territory for the first time in four years [11][12] - A slowdown in economic growth is expected going into 2026, influenced by high inflation and tariffs impacting consumer prices [14][19] Restaurant Industry Trends - The restaurant industry is experiencing a shift, with a 10% move away from dining out towards grocery shopping due to high prices, particularly in the QSR burger segment, which has seen over 50% price increases since 2019 [44][45] - Domino's Pizza is identified as a top pick for 2026, having only increased prices by about 27% since 2019, making it more affordable compared to QSR burger chains [47][48] - The value meal strategy is becoming crucial as QSR chains like McDonald's aim to regain lost customers by suppressing check growth to align with grocery inflation [51] Venture Capital and AI Investment - In 2025, 40% of deals and 65% of capital invested were in AI companies, indicating a strong focus on AI across various sectors, including life sciences and fintech [79][80] - The investment environment for AI companies is expected to remain robust in 2026, with a quality gap emerging where only companies meeting high growth benchmarks will attract significant funding [82][83] - The IPO landscape is anticipated to be favorable for sectors like crypto and AI, with companies like Circle benefiting from regulatory support [84][86] Tax Implications for Consumers - The child tax credit has been increased by $200, and a new $6,000 deduction for seniors will be available, providing some tax relief for families in 2026 [21][25] - Tariffs are estimated to cost US households an average of $1,100 in 2025, expected to rise to $1,400 in 2026, impacting consumer spending and sentiment [27][29] - Despite tax cuts, the burden of tariffs may lead consumers to feel worse off, as the perception of affordability is affected by rising prices [40][42] Future of Circle and Economic Infrastructure - Circle's CEO envisions the company playing a significant role in the future economic infrastructure, focusing on AI-driven productivity gains and the frictionless exchange of value [70][72] - The company aims to be foundational to a new economic system that integrates AI and enhances global economic prosperity through innovative financial solutions [75][76]

Core Viewpoint - Inflation continues to impact consumer budgets, although the rate of inflation has slowed down significantly [1] Group 1 - The pace of inflation has decreased, but it remains a concern for consumers [1] - The slow reduction in inflation rates indicates persistent economic pressure on households [1]

Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to opening bid. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi.I'm coming in hot today. I had a lot of caffeine. So, if you're in that easy peasy holiday mindset, it's time to get out of it. Get out of it now.Here are my uh five things that you need to know today. One, gold prices have hit another record and are up a sparkly 70% this year. Gold has seen 50 record highs this year.Two, copper prices have also hit another record. Copper is up 30% this year. Sure is lots of copper b ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent backed the idea of reconsidering the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target once the US has sustainably brought price increases back down to that pace https://t.co/AFZgg0dAuw ...

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter, the most rapid expansion in two years, as government and consumer spending, as well as exports, all increased.U.S. gross domestic product from July through September — the economy's total output of goods and services — rose from its 3.8% growth rate in the April-June quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday in a report delayed by the government shutdown. Analysts surveyed by the data firm FactSet forecast growth of 3% ...

Economic Growth - The US economy grew at an unexpectedly strong pace of 4.3% in the third quarter, marking the highest rate in two years [1][6] - This growth rate represents an increase from 3.8% in the previous quarter and surpassed analyst expectations of 3.2% [2] Consumer Spending - Vigorous consumer spending on services such as health care and products like recreational vehicles contributed significantly to the GDP surge [1] Employment and Retail Sales - The jobs market has faced challenges, with unemployment rising to 4.6% in November, the highest level in over four years [4] - Retail sales have slowed, even as upper-income households continue to spend, leading to weaker-than-expected earnings and outlooks from major businesses like Home Depot [4] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation remains a concern, hovering above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, although consumer prices rose only 2.7% year-over-year in November, a smaller-than-expected increase [4][5] - The inflation data may be distorted due to challenges in data collection during the recent government shutdown [5] Tariff Impact - Businesses are uncertain about how much of the tariff costs to pass on to consumers, complicating the assessment of the full impact of tariff policies on prices [7] - The average annual rate of economic growth since President Trump's return to office is 2.5%, comparable to the 2.4% average recorded last year under former President Biden [7]