Summary of Organization of Football Prognostics S.A. Capital Markets Day Company Overview - **Company**: Organization of Football Prognostics S.A. (OTCPK:GOFP.Y) - **Event**: 2025 Capital Markets Day held on November 28, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: Jan Karas (CEO), Ken Morton (CFO), Karel Komárek (Founder), Kathleen Colemire (Board Member), Pavel Mucha (CFO of OPAP) Core Industry Insights - **Industry**: Lottery and Gaming Sector - **Market Dynamics**: The lottery and gaming industry is undergoing a transformation driven by evolving customer expectations, requiring personalization, social features, and seamless experiences [11][12][13] - **Technological Integration**: Emphasis on cutting-edge technology, including AI, to accelerate innovation and reduce time to market [11][12] Key Transaction Highlights - **Transaction with OPAP**: A transformational deal that positions OPAP shareholders to share in the growth of a global gaming leader while maintaining a minimum dividend of EUR 1 per share [12][13][15] - **Scale and Growth**: The combination will create the second-largest listed lottery and gaming operator globally by EBITDA, enhancing growth potential and cash flow resilience [16][17] Financial Performance - **EBITDA Growth**: Pro forma for announced acquisitions, the company generated EUR 1.9 billion of EBITDA in the 12 months to June 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 20% over the last six years [20][24] - **Cash Flow Generation**: The company has invested over EUR 2.5 billion in inorganic growth since 2019 while paying EUR 1.7 billion in dividends [26][27] Strategic Growth Initiatives - **Organic Growth Strategy**: Focus on enhancing customer offerings, driving digitalization, and expanding product portfolios [30][39] - **Inorganic Growth Strategy**: Targeted acquisitions to strengthen core operations and enter new markets, with recent acquisitions including PrizePicks and Novibet [41][42] Market Position and Expansion - **Geographic Footprint**: The transaction expands OPAP's footprint from a Cyprus-only operation to a global presence, including high-growth markets in the U.S., Brazil, and Latin America [17][19] - **Product Diversification**: The combined entity will offer a broader range of products, including daily fantasy sports through PrizePicks and enhanced iGaming capabilities [18][19] Future Outlook - **Vision for 2030**: Ambition to be the leading global gaming entertainment company with top positions across lottery, sports betting, and iGaming markets [50][51] - **Technological Advancements**: Continued investment in proprietary technology and content to enhance customer experiences and drive innovation [44][45] Additional Insights - **Responsible Gaming**: Commitment to high standards of play protection and corporate social responsibility as integral to sustainable growth [48][49] - **Community Contributions**: Active involvement in community initiatives, supporting various social causes [49] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Organization of Football Prognostics S.A. Capital Markets Day, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial performance, and future growth potential in the lottery and gaming industry.

Core Insights - A record number of shoppers, approximately 186.9 million, are expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, marking an increase of about 3 million from last year [4] - Black Friday remains the largest shopping day, with around 130.4 million shoppers planning to participate, followed by Cyber Monday at 40% and Small Business Saturday at 36% [5] Retail Performance - Costco and Walmart are identified as key winners in the holiday shopping season due to their strong brand presence and ability to offer low prices [6] - Costco's stock is down 2.5% year-to-date with a HOLD rating, while Walmart is up nearly 18% year-to-date, also holding a HOLD rating [7] Consumer Behavior - Direct-to-consumer brands face challenges as consumers increasingly price-check items on platforms like Amazon, leading to heightened price sensitivity [8][9] - Luxury brands like Louis Vuitton are performing well, as the top 10% of earners contribute significantly to consumption despite broader consumer pullbacks [10] Economic Context - The National Retail Federation forecasts total holiday spending to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with sales growth projected between 3.7% and 4.2% for 2024 [13] - Retail stocks have struggled overall this year, with both consumer discretionary and staples sectors lagging behind the broader market due to economic pressures [14] Notable Retailers - Discount chains such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have seen stock increases of over 30% this year, while brands like Coca-Cola have gained around 16% [15]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed slight gains, with the Dow Futures at 47,542, up 52 points or 0.11%, and S&P 500 Futures at 6,835, up 0.10% [1] - November was a challenging month for equities, with major indexes experiencing a pullback, particularly in megacap tech stocks, leading to a 2% drop in the Nasdaq [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market sentiment improved as traders increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with futures pricing indicating over an 80% probability of a quarter-point cut [2] AI and Tech Stocks - Renewed optimism in AI stocks contributed positively to market sentiment, although trading momentum was paused due to the Thanksgiving break [3] - Tech stocks exhibited mixed performance, with notable movements in companies like NVIDIA, Cleanspark, and SanDisk, reflecting ongoing interest in the semiconductor and storage sectors [8] Trading Disruptions - A cooling system failure at CME Group's CyrusOne data centers caused a significant disruption, halting futures and options trading for several hours, impacting liquidity across multiple markets [3][5] Commodity Markets - Gold futures increased, hovering near $4,160 an ounce, benefiting from lower borrowing-cost expectations and a favorable outlook for a December rate cut [9] - Oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude trading above $63 per barrel, marking the longest losing streak since May 2023, as traders remain cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting [10] Future Market Projections - Wall Street banks have begun releasing forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2026, with Deutsche Bank projecting a target of 8,000, while HSBC and JPMorgan expect a more moderate target of around 7,500 [12]

Core Viewpoint - Growing expectations for an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve are contributing to a positive trend in global equity markets, potentially leading to the best week since June [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Impact - Optimism surrounding Federal Reserve easing is influencing market sentiment and driving equity performance [1] - The anticipation of interest-rate cuts is seen as a key factor in the current market rally [1] Group 2: Market Volatility - There is a cautionary note regarding potential volatility in the markets due to the optimism already being priced in [1] - The interplay between Federal Reserve policies and advancements in AI is highlighted as a significant factor for future market movements [1]

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Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation is a leading player in accelerated computing and is crucial for the AI revolution, with its data-center segment being the primary revenue driver [2] Group 1: Company Profile - NVIDIA is recognized as the global leader in accelerated computing, providing foundational hardware for AI [2] - The company's data-center segment, supported by Hopper and upcoming Blackwell GPU platforms, significantly contributes to its revenue and profits [2] - NVIDIA's ecosystem, including CUDA, software libraries, and networking (Mellanox), creates a strong competitive advantage [2] Group 2: DCF Analysis - The DCF model uses a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [3] - Forecasted free cash flows (in billions USD) are projected to grow from $80.0 in 2025 to $120.0 in 2029, with a total present value of $373.8 billion [3] - The terminal value, calculated using a perpetuity growth model, is estimated at $1,766 billion, leading to a present value of $1,095 billion [3] - The enterprise value is calculated to be $1,468.8 billion [3] Group 3: Financial Metrics - NVIDIA has a net cash position with cash and equivalents at $53.99 billion and total debt at $10.60 billion, resulting in net debt of -$43.4 billion [4] - The equity value is calculated at $1,512.2 billion, with approximately 24.35 billion shares outstanding, leading to an intrinsic value per share of about $62 [4] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - The current market price of NVIDIA is around $180, indicating a margin of safety of -66% compared to the DCF value [4] - Despite being a technology leader with strong revenue growth and pricing power, NVIDIA's stock is considered overvalued under conservative DCF assumptions [4][5] - For long-term investors, NVIDIA is seen as a high-quality investment, but the current price offers little margin of safety [5]

Core Insights - Sands Capital Select Growth Strategy reported a portfolio return of 6.3% in Q3 2025, underperforming the benchmark's 10.5% gain, driven by strong corporate earnings and AI enthusiasm [1] - DexCom, Inc. (NASDAQ:DXCM) faced a one-month return of -8.29% and a 52-week decline of 19.94%, closing at $62.53 with a market cap of $24.52 billion [2][3] Company Performance - DexCom, Inc. is a leading producer of glucose monitors, experiencing stock price pressure due to industry weakness and scrutiny over product reliability [3] - Despite challenges, DexCom has shown accelerating year-over-year revenue growth for three consecutive quarters, with Q3 2025 global revenue reaching $1.21 billion, up from $994 million in Q3 2024 [4] Future Outlook - Management raised 2025 revenue guidance cautiously, which disappointed investors, but this conservative approach may allow for upside potential in the latter half of 2025 [3] - Potential catalysts for DexCom include strong adoption of its new 15-day sensor, expanded Medicare coverage, and clarity on long-term plans, with expectations for margin leverage contributing to profitability in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) experienced a significant decline in market sentiment following a disappointing fiscal first-quarter earnings report, with its momentum score dropping from 72.05 to 20.83, placing it in the bottom quintile for relative price strength [1][2]. Financial Performance - Super Micro reported revenue of $5.01 billion, which fell short of analyst estimates of $5.99 billion, and gross margins decreased to 9.3% due to high costs associated with scaling up liquid-cooled AI clusters [5]. - The stock has seen a decline of 36.34% over the past month and 21.02% over the last six months, although it is up 9.25% year-to-date and down 6.39% over the past year [5]. Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - The sharp decline in momentum reflects immediate investor dissatisfaction with the company's financial performance, with negative price trends observed across all timeframes [3]. - Despite the negative momentum, Super Micro's quality rankings remain strong, indicating potential resilience in its long-term prospects [3]. Strategic Positioning - As a strategic partner for Nvidia, Super Micro is preparing to launch next-generation platforms, including the Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL144, in 2026, although current market sentiment is heavily influenced by immediate margin pressures and revenue shortfalls [6].

Core Insights - The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a transformative technology for businesses, with Nvidia positioned as a key player in this revolution [2][8] - Nvidia has consistently exceeded Wall Street's sales and profit expectations, driven by high demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in AI-accelerated data centers [5][6] - The company reported $57 billion in sales for the quarter ending October 26, reflecting a 62% year-over-year revenue growth, with Nvidia estimated to supply over 90% of GPUs in high-compute data centers [7][8] Company Performance - Nvidia's GPUs, particularly the Hopper, Blackwell, and Blackwell Ultra models, are experiencing significant demand, leading to backlogged orders [5][6] - The company enjoys a strong pricing power, with high-end GPUs priced between $30,000 and $40,000, contributing to a gross margin exceeding 73% [9] - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted the exponential growth in compute demand for AI training and inference, indicating a robust market position for Nvidia [6][7] Market Position - Nvidia holds a first-mover advantage in the AI hardware space, with no close competitors in terms of compute capability for its latest GPU offerings [8] - The company's dominance in the AI GPU market is underscored by its substantial revenue concentration, which poses potential risks [8]

Economic Growth Outlook - The economy is expected to see a slight pickup in growth, with GDP growth projected to be around 4.2% for Q3 and 4% for Q2 [25] - Job growth is anticipated to average around 80,000 for 2026, an increase from the recent average of 70,000 to 60,000 [19] AI's Impact on the Economy - AI spending currently represents about 1.5% of GDP, contributing approximately 25% to the overall GDP growth [6][7] - While AI is a significant driver of growth, it is not in bubble territory, and companies are expected to continue investing in AI [10][11] Federal Reserve Policy and Leadership - The potential nomination of Kevin Hasset as the next Fed chair may lead to a more dovish approach, but consensus among committee members will still be necessary [12][14] - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts, but challenges remain in achieving a dovish policy due to elevated inflation [15][14] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of strength, with a notable increase in construction employment and a rise in labor force participation [21][28] - The recent jobs report indicated a payroll increase of 119,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [21]