Market Overview & Strategy - The market deserves the benefit of the doubt, favoring growth sectors like technology, communication services, and industrials [1] - Economic data suggests the economy is cooling but not collapsing, with solid retail sales and declining initial job claims [2] - Earning estimates for the market continue to move higher, supporting a positive underlying trend [2] - The market is warming up to a 30-year rate floating around 5%, with focus on the velocity of the move [3] Hedging & Portfolio Allocation - Gold remains a diversifier in portfolios, performing well when stocks and bonds decline [4] - The firm is more focused on the equity side, seeing more upside overall in the market [5] - International equities have been moved to neutral, but the firm maintains a US bias, favoring US large caps and growth sectors [6][7] - International equities experienced mean reversion after underperforming since the 1990s last year [6]

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

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Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Debt Burden & Credit Rating - Senegal's debt burden led to a second credit downgrade in five months [1] - Barclays suggests Senegal's debt burden may ease after a planned economic data reset later this year [1]

China to Release Q2 GDP and Key Economic Data: Live Updates https://t.co/PesbQb6PXe ...

it is kinda fucked that unemployment could spike when companies figure out ways to use AI more efficiently & need less employees, bc economic data would look worse but certain companies would actually be++more profitable++more revenues ...

Factory Orders & Durable Goods - Factory orders for May increased by 82%, a significant surge [1] - The prior month's figure was revised from -37% to -39% [2] - Excluding transportation, factory orders increased by 210%, indicating aircraft orders significantly contributed to the overall growth [2] - Durable goods orders remained at 164%, primarily due to aircraft orders [3] - Core capital goods orders (non-defense excluding aircraft) increased by 17%, the second-highest number of the year [3] - Shipments versus orders decreased slightly from 05% to 04% [3] ISM Services - The ISM Services headline figure was 508%, the highest since April's 516% [4] - Prices paid decreased to 675%, the lowest since April's 651%, but still a substantial figure compared to previous months [4] - New orders rose to 513%, indicating a return to expansion [5] - Employment within the ISM Services sector contracted, falling from 507% to 472%, comparable to March's 462% [5] Market Reaction & Outlook - Yields and equities are up, reflecting a positive market response to the economic data [6] - The upcoming week will be dynamic due to Treasury supply events (3s, 10s, and 30s) [6]

Economic Data & Analysis - Funding cuts have severely impacted the Bureau of Labour Statistics [1] - America's economic data interpretation will become more challenging [1] - The situation may lead to poor economic decisions [1]

The Fed's latest round of projections released Wednesday will include the muchstudied dot plot. It's a chart updated quarterly that shows each Fed officials prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. Our next guest, however, is in the camp of no cuts from the Fed for the remainder of the year.We got Kenny Pulcari here, a Slatestone Wealth chief market strategist and host of the Yahoo Finance podcast, Trader Talk. So, each one of those little dots represents a member of the ...