Supply and Construction Trends - Apartment construction starts are projected to decrease by 65% next year [1] - Industrial construction is also down 70% [3] - Data centers are now a larger asset class in construction than office buildings in the US for the first time [3] Rental Market and Debt Issues - Rents have gone negative in many markets, contrary to expectations [2] - Many properties with construction loans may not be able to pay off their debts at maturity [2] Population and Immigration - The US has experienced a reduction in population for the first time in 250 years, negatively impacting real estate [3] - Net exporting people is a problem for many real estate markets [4] - The country needs to encourage legal immigration, which has historically contributed significantly to GDP growth [4] Investment Opportunities - Rates are coming down, presenting opportunities to buy real estate in the US at deep discounts to replacement cost, especially in office buildings [4]

What's driving these gains. >> Well, there's a little bit of micro and a little bit of macro at the risk of sounding like a song. I mean, the macro is some of it's global and I do think the fact that actually we are nearing a resolution for the US shutdown has had a positive impact on markets across the globe.Plus, you've had things like the resolution on kind of Swiss tariffs this week, you know, in the last week, which has also added some tailwinds to the European markets. You've also got expectation of l ...

WSJ’s Nick Timiraos reported growing divisions within the Fed over a December rate cut. Some officials cite sticky inflation and tariff effects to argue for a pause, while doves point to weak jobs and slowing demand. A government shutdown disrupting key data has widened the split. The rate remains at 3.75%–4%, with markets still slightly favoring a cut amid a rare hawk-dove standoff. https://t.co/dHfdPJkWEc ...

Brazil’s central bank said it’s more assured that keeping the interest rate at a nearly two-decade high will slow inflation as the local economy cools https://t.co/ZOvLw1TsTa ...

Australia’s consumer confidence soared in November as households turned more positive on the economy, a result that’s likely to further reduce the chances of a near-term interest-rate cut https://t.co/3dgbyNGOEp ...

In an attempt to make home buying more affordable, President Trump floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage in social media post. In response, FHFA Director Bill Py, who oversees Fanny May and Freddy Mack, posted that they are quote working on it and that it would be quote a complete gamecher. Now, the purpose of a longerterm mortgage would be to lower the monthly payment for homeowners.The longer the term of the loan, the smaller the principal needed each month to pay it off in full. Now, using the latest la ...

Market Trend & Policy - The Trump administration proposed a 50-year mortgage option to make home buying more affordable [1] - FHFA is considering the 50-year mortgage, viewing it as a potential "game changer" [2] - Analysts suggest that implementing a 50-year mortgage may require regulatory changes to the Dodd-Frank Act, potentially taking up to a year [5] - The housing market needs more supply to combat inflated home prices, regardless of mortgage rates [6] Financial Implications - A 50-year mortgage could lower monthly payments, illustrated by a decrease from $2,506 to $1,823 on a $415,200 home with a 20% down payment and a 63% interest rate [3] - While monthly payments decrease by $233, homeowners build equity slower and pay 40% more interest over the loan term [4] - Shorter-term loans (15-year fixed) currently have lower interest rates (66 basis points lower) than 30-year fixed loans, suggesting a 50-year mortgage might have a higher interest rate [7] Risks & Considerations - A higher interest rate on a 50-year mortgage could negate the benefit of lower monthly payments [8] - Concerns exist that a 50-year mortgage resembles an interest-only mortgage due to the slow equity building [9] - The average homeowner may not stay in their home long enough to benefit from a 50-year mortgage [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in demand for dollar-denominated stablecoins could lead to lower U.S. interest rates, as suggested by Fed Governor Stephen Miran [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Interest Rates - Miran indicated that the growth of stablecoins could push the Fed's benchmark rate down by 0.4 percentage points [2]. - He emphasized that stablecoins are increasing demand for U.S. Treasury bills and other dollar-denominated liquid assets, particularly from international buyers [2][3]. - The rise of stablecoins may structurally lower borrowing costs for an extended period [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Miran's arguments suggest that a lower neutral rate of interest (r-star) necessitates lower policy rates to support economic health [5]. - He warned that failing to adjust rates in response to a reduction in r-star could be contractionary for the economy [5]. - The potential for stablecoins to become a multitrillion-dollar market could significantly influence central banking policies [2][4].

Core Insights - The timing of mortgage refinancing can significantly impact costs, particularly the day of the week chosen for closing [1][2] Group 1: Risks of Closing on Fridays - Closing on Fridays may lead to double-charging, as the old lender may not receive payoff funds until the following week, resulting in interest payments on both loans over the weekend [3][4] - Fridays are often volatile due to the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Non-farm payrolls report, which can influence mortgage-backed securities and subsequently affect interest rates [5][6] Group 2: Considerations for Refinancing - While Friday poses specific risks, it is essential to consider broader factors such as monthly mortgage rate trends and the closing costs associated with securing a lower interest rate [7] - Engaging with both old and new lenders can help navigate potential pitfalls and ensure a smoother refinancing process [8]

Mexico’s annual inflation slowed in line with expectations in October, just a day after the central bank delivered an 11th straight interest rate cut https://t.co/em7EoqKHwl ...