Stocks looked set to rise in thin trading on Monday, while gold jumped to yet another record as the market bet on a strong end to 2026 for both equities and precious metals.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 63 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures added 0.4%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%.The three major indexes rallied on Friday, meaning that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week in the green. Investors had been fretting about lofty artificial-intellige ...

Group 1: Analyst Revisions - AlphaValue has increased its target price for Merck KGaA (MRKGY) to €183 from €177, reflecting a 3.80% upward revision and a more favorable outlook on the company's core fundamentals [3][9] - J.P. Morgan has lowered its price target for RH (RH) to $225 from $275 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing margin pressure due to gross margin impacts from tariffs and promotions [4][9] Group 2: Market Performance - Asian stock markets experienced significant gains, driven by a positive close on Wall Street and easing concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, along with expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [5][9] - In the U.S., Wall Street saw stocks open higher, with key AI players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) contributing to gains across major indices, supported by a lower-than-expected 2.7% rise in U.S. inflation for November [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the potential for further interest rate cuts could arise if economic indicators continue on their current positive trajectories, particularly regarding inflation data [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Goolsbee highlighted the positive aspects of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, noting a 0.2% increase over two months from September to November and a year-over-year rise of 2.7%, which was below economists' expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.1% year-over-year rise [2][4]. - The CPI report reflects a delayed reporting window due to a recent government shutdown, which did not include the standard one-month change from October to November [2]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve recently announced its third interest rate cut of the year, reducing the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, following similar cuts in September and October [4]. - Goolsbee expressed discomfort with preemptively front-loading rate cuts before confirming a return to the 2% inflation target, suggesting that rates could be lowered significantly if full employment and stable inflation are achieved [5][8]. Labor Market Concerns - In response to concerns about the U.S. job market and rising unemployment rates, Goolsbee noted that most job market measures, aside from payroll employment, have shown steady but mild cooling [6][7]. - He emphasized the need for assurance that inflationary spikes are transitory and not indicative of a longer-term trend before considering further rate reductions [8].

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Market Performance - Benchmark indices opened positively, with the Sensex rising 468.44 points (0.55%) to 84,950.25 and the Nifty gaining 133.90 points (0.52%) to 25,949.45, driven by favorable global cues following lower-than-expected US inflation data [1] - The Sensex closed at 84,481.81 and the Nifty at 25,815.55 in the previous session, indicating a continuation of gains as both indices opened higher at 84,756.79 and 25,911.50 respectively [2] Global Market Influence - Global markets showed a positive bias, led by gains in US equities after the November consumer price inflation data came in at 2.7%, lower than anticipated, which bolstered expectations for further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [3] - The Nasdaq surged 1.38%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increased by 0.79% and 0.14% respectively, reflecting a shift towards a risk-on environment [3] Sector Performance - Among the top gainers on the Nifty 50, Max Healthcare Institute led with a 1.91% increase to ₹1,068.50, followed by Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles up 1.87% to ₹352.25, and Bharat Electronics gaining 1.81% to ₹390.40 [4] - On the losing side, Shriram Finance declined by 1.20% to ₹859, while HCL Technologies fell 0.34% to ₹1,655.70 [5] Institutional Activity - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued buying for a second consecutive session, purchasing equities worth nearly ₹600 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors showed strong buying interest with inflows of ₹2,700 crore [6] Technical Analysis - The Nifty 50 is in a consolidation phase, trading within the 25,700–25,900 range, with immediate resistance at 25,900–26,000 and key supports at 25,700 and 25,600 [7] - The Indian rupee appreciated by 14 paise to settle at 90.24 against the US dollar, marking a second consecutive day of gains [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements regarding interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for a larger cut while others prefer to pause until more clarity on inflation is obtained [1][2][3] - The November consumer price index (CPI) showed annual inflation at 2.7%, which is lower than the estimated 3.1%, indicating a potential trend towards the Fed's 2% target [2][4] - Fed President Austin Goulsby expressed cautious optimism about the CPI report but emphasized the need for sustained progress in inflation and employment data before supporting further rate cuts [4][5][8] Group 2 - The current unemployment rate is reported at 4.6%, which raises concerns about the balance between inflation control and labor market stability [6][12] - Goulsby highlighted the importance of analyzing the components of inflation, noting that improvements in goods prices must not be offset by rising services inflation, which tends to be more persistent [10][11] - The market is predicting a potential interest rate cut in March, with a 58% probability, indicating expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy if inflation trends continue positively [21][24]

Inflation Data Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% in November, lower than Wall Street's expectation of 3.1% [2] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was reported at 2.6%, compared to estimates of 3% [2] - Over the two-month period since September, both headline and core CPI increased by only 0.2% [3] Impact of Government Shutdown - The recent inflation data may not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's outlook due to data collection disruptions caused by the government shutdown [1][4] - The shutdown halted much of the price data collection by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leading to skepticism about the reliability of the current inflation figures [2][4] Economic Perspectives - Economists view the latest inflation reading as progress towards the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, despite still being above the target [5] - The Fed is in a "wait-and-see" mode, with the latest data potentially opening the door for additional rate cuts [6] Sector-Specific Insights - A decline in rents contributed to the overall decrease in inflation, while core goods prices rose by 1.4% due to tariffs [7] - Services inflation, excluding energy prices, increased by 3%, down from 3.5% since September, indicating a trend that the Fed is closely monitoring [7] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran supports the view that lower rents can lead to reduced inflation, which may mitigate the impact of tariffs [8]

Core Insights - Barrick Mining Corporation and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited are leading gold producers benefiting from rising gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and interest rate cuts [1][2][3] Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have surged approximately 65% this year, currently exceeding $4,300 per ton, influenced by global trade tensions and central bank gold accumulation [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and expectations of further reductions amid U.S. economic concerns have contributed to the bullish trend in gold prices [2][3] Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush, Pueblo Viejo expansion, and Reko Diq, which are expected to significantly boost production [4][5][6] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually [5] - Barrick's liquidity is strong, with cash and equivalents around $5 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $2.4 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 105% year-over-year increase [7] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, with a dividend yield of 1.6% and a payout ratio of 32% [8][9] Agnico Eagle Mines Limited - Agnico Eagle is focused on growth projects like Odyssey, Detour Lake, and Hope Bay, which are expected to enhance production and cash flows [10][11] - The Hope Bay Project has proven reserves of 3.4 million ounces and is anticipated to generate significant cash flow [11] - AEM's operating cash flow was approximately $1.8 billion in Q3 2025, a 67% increase from the previous year, with free cash flow nearly doubling to $1.2 billion [14][15] - AEM has a low long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of around 1.2% and a dividend yield of 1% with a payout ratio of 23% [16] Comparative Performance - Barrick's stock has increased by 105.2% in the past six months, while Agnico Eagle's stock has risen by 36.6%, compared to the industry average increase of 56.9% [17] - Barrick trades at a forward earnings multiple of 12.99, slightly below the industry average, while AEM trades at a premium with a multiple of 17.88 [19][21] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects Barrick's 2025 sales and EPS to rise by 21.8% and 77.8%, respectively, while AEM's estimates imply growth of 34.4% and 83.9% [23][24] - AEM's return on equity stands at 15.6%, higher than Barrick's 9.5%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [25] Investment Outlook - Both Barrick and Agnico Eagle are well-positioned to benefit from the strong gold price environment, with solid financial health and growth prospects [27] - AEM's higher growth projections and lower leverage suggest it may offer better investment opportunities in the current market [27]

You can find original article here WealthManagement. Subscribe to our free daily WealthManagement newsletters. (Bloomberg) -- Deals in the wealth management space surged in the third quarter and are expected to continue climbing in the new year. Mergers and acquisitions in the sector jumped 15% compared to the prior quarter, according to a report from PwC. Wealth management deals comprised the bulk of that increase, rising 27% in the period. Reduced financing costs due to the Federal Reserve’s rat ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Reactions - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.17%, driven by weakness in GBP/USD and the yen, as UK consumer prices rose less than expected and Japanese fiscal concerns weigh on the yen [1] - The dollar is under pressure due to the Fed's liquidity boost, with the central bank purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills starting last Friday [2] - Markets are concerned about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, which could negatively impact the dollar [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Governor Christopher Waller described the US labor market as "pretty soft" with close to zero job growth, while inflation remains "pretty well anchored" around 2% [3] - Interest rates are still 50-100 basis points above neutral, allowing the Fed to lower them steadily without urgency [3] - The market is pricing in a 24% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming January 27-28 meeting [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro (EUR/USD) is down by -0.04% due to a stronger dollar and negative Eurozone economic news, including a downward revision of November CPI and the smallest increase in Q3 labor costs in three years [4] - The unexpected decline in the German December IFO business conditions survey to a 7-month low is also bearish for the euro [4] - Divergent central bank policies support the euro, as the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates while the ECB is seen to have completed its rate-cutting campaign [5] - Eurozone November CPI was revised downward to +2.1% year-on-year from +2.2% year-on-year [5]