Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, a decision characterized as "risk management" [1] - The vote for the rate cut was 11 to 1, with one Fed Governor voting for a 0.5 percentage point reduction [1] - The Fed is signaling the possibility of two more rate cuts before the end of the year [2] - The concept of a "risk management cut" suggests the balance of risk has shifted towards weakness in the labor market [7] Economic Outlook & Risks - The economy faces two-sided risk, with a weak labor market and high inflation, creating a difficult situation for policymakers [2][6] - Inflation remains high, potentially increasing gradually, while the labor market shows some weaknesses [5] - Recent retail sales data surprised on the upside, indicating some remaining strength in the economy [13] - The economy is more complicated than headlines suggest, with consumption largely driven by wealthier Americans [16][17] Housing Market - The US is estimated to be 2 to 3 million houses short of the required amount, making it a complex supply and demand story [16] - A 0.25 percentage point rate reduction is not expected to dramatically change the housing outlook [16]

Whatever probability you put on recession a few weeks ago, it should be lower now that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, WSJ’s Greg Ip writes https://t.co/TPIx0xsqQN ...

When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, Chair Jerome Powell mostly avoided acrimonious dissents despite a climate of unprecedented political confrontation https://t.co/WuJMnMD6fc ...

Donald Trump’s efforts to rewire global trade and pressure the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates are prompting investors to trim their US exposure, according to Mercer https://t.co/yf2CTLtTaG ...

Gold held a decline, after it slipped from a fresh record in the previous session following the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated announcement to cut interest rates https://t.co/PGo6mcA2gt ...

RT Jason Shubnell (@JasonShubnell)The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a range between 4% and 4.25% and signaled two more cuts this year. Kraken's @TheMarginMan says the next 100bps could be the most consequential for asset prices this cycle.https://t.co/a1uvUHe2kD ...

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25bps. https://t.co/iNYrqakQGt ...

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

Interest Rate Expectations & Monetary Policy - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve funds rate to be around 3% in the future, potentially influencing the housing market [5] - A neutral rate around 3% to 375% suggests current monetary policy remains tight [3] - The market is pricing in events 6 to 8 months ahead, indicating forward-looking expectations beyond current observations [9] Housing Market Dynamics - Approximately 85% of mortgage holders have rates below 55%, creating a barrier to moving unless rates narrow considerably [5] - A rate of 55% is seen as a potential catalyst to unlock the housing market [7] - Refinancing below 3% in January 2021 highlights the sensitivity of homeowners to mortgage rates [6] Market & Sector Implications - Small caps, particularly the Russell 2000, are up 19% [7] - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit tech investments and consumer discretionary sectors like Best Buy, Home Depot, Ford, and GM [10] - 40% of the Russell 2000 is unprofitable, making them highly reliant on interest rates and variable margins [9]

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin @keds_economist @AllisonSchrager Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who joined the board this week, voted against today’s decision in favor of lowering rates by a half pointhttps://t.co/gpI5tkEvOw ...