IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：贸易问题带来的不确定性代价很高。 ...

Core Insights - The rise in bond yields and the decline of the dollar indicate a shift in global investor preferences [1] - These changes may rapidly alter following the resolution of trade uncertainties [1] Group 1 - The increase in bond yields suggests a potential adjustment in investment strategies among global investors [1] - The weakening of the dollar reflects changing market dynamics and investor sentiment [1] - The interplay between bond yields and currency values highlights the interconnectedness of global financial markets [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of Sika stated that the optimism in the U.S. construction industry is being affected by trade uncertainties related to Trump [1] - The construction sector is experiencing mixed sentiments due to ongoing trade discussions and potential tariffs [1] - Sika's performance may be influenced by these external factors, impacting their market outlook [1] Group 2 - The overall sentiment in the construction industry remains cautious amid the trade policy changes [1] - Companies in the construction sector are closely monitoring developments in trade negotiations [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs could lead to fluctuations in material costs and project timelines [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs and countermeasures on various industries, highlighting the need for a trading mindset in consumer stocks [3] - It notes significant fluctuations in global asset prices due to trade uncertainties, with a focus on the quantitative monitoring of trade uncertainty and global panic trading levels [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The shipping industry is directly affected by the tariffs, with a notable increase in container shipping volume from Asia to North America during the 2018 trade war, which saw a 6.63% year-on-year increase and a 175.77% rise in freight rates [5] - The report indicates that the shipping demand on the US route is exposed to high tariff risks, with no buffer period for the implementation of counter-tariffs, leading to a decline in export demand and potential impacts on shipping schedules and port efficiency [8] Group 3: Company Analysis - China Energy Construction (601868.SH) shows steady revenue growth with a significant expansion in new energy installations, projecting net profits of 9.3 billion, 10 billion, and 10.5 billion for 2025-2027, with respective growth rates of 10%, 8%, and 5% [10] - Haier Biomedical (688139.SH) reported a slight revenue increase of 0.13% in 2024, with a net profit of 367 million, although it experienced a decline of 9.71% year-on-year; however, the company is expected to see a recovery in 2025 with projected revenues of 2.623 billion, 3.023 billion, and 3.479 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 14.9%, 15.2%, and 15.1% respectively [11][12]

作者：陶川 钟渝梅 随着特朗普 " 对等关税 " 即将揭晓，年初以来关税不确定性对市场的冲击也将进入一个新的阶段。 我们认为下一阶段市场演绎的逻辑， 仍在于关税冲击下主要经济体所面临的贸易不确定性的大小。如图 1 所示， 在目前这个阶段，由于贸易不确定性上美国 > 全球 > 中国， 因此美股相对全球和中国股市跑输，美元也表现疲软。 从这点来看，今夜的剧本关键在于何种方式和力度的关税美国可以承受，以及中 国、欧洲、东南亚等其他对美顺差国谁更难承受。 二是看美国自身的基本面情况如何， 比如 2018-19 年期间历轮美国加征关税前后， 美股下滑最为显著的时点 发生在 2019 年 8 月对华加 征 3000 亿美元关税之前、 2018 年 9 月加征 2000 亿美元之后、 2018 年 3 月对全球加征钢铝关税之后，有趣的是， 这三个时间段均伴随 着美国基本面的走弱 。昨天（ 4 月 1 日） 3 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 的不及预期，可能会放大美股的下行风险。 以史为鉴，特朗普加征关税前后市场如何演绎，我们认为背后有两大决定性因素： 一是看市场有没有提前 " 消化 " 关税政策，或者说关税政策是否超预期 ...