Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury bond is currently viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its high yield compared to shorter-duration bonds, with expectations of falling long-term yields as inflation fears ease [2][3]. Investment Opportunity - Elliott Dornbusch, CIO at CV Advisors, highlights the 30-year Treasury bond's yield of 4.8%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.14% [2]. - The 30-year bond is favored for its high yield despite its long duration, which is typically seen as a disadvantage [3][4]. Market Expectations - Dornbusch anticipates that long-term yields will decline, leading to an increase in bond prices, driven by overstated long-term inflation risks and potential shifts in investor behavior during market downturns [5][6]. - The expectation is that if a bear market occurs, investors will flock to long-term Treasurys, increasing their value and decreasing yields, thus providing a profitable exit for current holders [6]. Potential Returns - The potential return on the 30-year Treasury bond over the next four years could resemble a 10% return when considering both coupon payments and price appreciation, making it an attractive option for patient investors [7].

Ah, the stock market. A bastion of rational thought, predictable trends, and calm, measured reactions. Or, if you’ve been paying attention to the last few years, a chaotic pinball machine where the flippers are controlled by presidential tweets and the ball bounces wildly between “historic deals” and “massive tariffs.” Welcome back to the exhilarating, if slightly whiplash-inducing, world of the Trump economy, where policy pronouncements often serve as the opening bell for a fresh round of market gymnastics ...

Economic Outlook & Growth Drivers - The economy faces hurdles including government shutdowns affecting growth and delaying data collection [2] - "Prosec" (production for security) is a key positive thesis, focusing on domestic production in areas of national security interest like chips, data centers, AI, electricity, and rare earth minerals [3][4][5] - Tariffs are starting to impact earnings potential and may spread to consumers [6][7] - Tax cuts, tilted towards upper-end households, and deregulation are expected to inject cash into the economy in the first half of 2026 [9][10][11] - The dynamic properties inside the tax bill should facilitate 23% to 25% growth next year [14] Market & Investment Strategies - Companies are questioning spending on AI, which could drag on the economy if it slows [6][15] - The market and economy have diverged, with a "little i-shaped economy" where a small segment is doing well while the rest is just okay [16][17] - Fund manager surveys show bullish sentiment, but there's a disconnect with the real economy [19] - Tech companies may become more careful with spending plans [21] AI & Technology - Focus should shift from those working on AI to those working with AI, emphasizing adoption policies to drive productivity growth [24][25] - Data centers are driving significant debt issuance, estimated at $150 billion to $175 billion per year [30] - Governments are accelerating the development of AI value chains for economic and national security [52] - Sovereign AI is a key theme, with governments focusing on algorithms, critical minerals for semiconductors, and data [52][53] Crypto & Regulation - The Senate is considering the Clarity Act to provide a market structure for crypto in the US [33] - Banks are exploring stablecoins, which could lead to greater adoption and efficiency in the financial system [35][36] - Bitcoin is heavily influenced by leverage players, requiring new standards and safeguards [37][38][39] Trade & Geopolitics - Uncertainty around tariff policies is expected to continue, along with export controls and trade restrictions [42][43] - Companies are using scenario planning to manage geopolitical risks [46] - Geopolitical competition for resources like critical minerals and fresh water is a key story for 2026 [47][48] - Geopolitical competition around access to capital and the growing politization of capital allocation are reshaping the global financial system [50]

America's worst public speaker struggled mightily reading a teleprompter full of lies tonight. His speech, if we can call it that. In it, Donald Trump said that when he took office, quote, "Inflation was the worst in the history of our country." That is a lie.A typical Trump lie. Inflation was at 3% when Donald Trump took office. Inflation is at 3% right now.Donald Trump said that when he took office, we had quote transgender for everybody. That would mean that Donald Trump is transgender. That would mean t ...

WELCOME TO THE TOP STORIES OF 2025. I'M TOM YAMAS, COMING TO YOU FROM TIMES SQUARE IN THE HEART OF NEW YORK CITY. THIS IS THE HOME OF THE ICONIC BALL DROP, AS YOU KNOW, WHERE EVERY DECEMBER 31ST, WE SAY GOODBYE TO THE OLD YEAR AND RING IN THE YEAR AHEAD.FOR THE NEXT HOUR, WE'RE GOING TO LOOK BACK AT THE TOP 10 STORIES OF WHAT HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE YEAR FULL OF MAJOR EVENTS AND UNEXPECTED HEADLINES. WE BEGIN WITH A LOOK BACK AT THE YEAR THAT WAS. IT IS A GRIM NEW YEAR'S MORNING HERE TO BEGIN 2025.THE GUY IN ...

Nike logo positioned in front a running shoe, highlighting the recent strength of its running product line. Key Points Nike beat revenue and EPS estimates in its latest earnings report but still showed underlying operational weaknesses. The company’s DTC strategy faces challenges, especially in China, while wholesale and running product lines are performing well. Nike’s long-term recovery hinges on its Sport Offense strategy and managing tariff impacts, but investor confidence remains shaky. Intereste ...

"It's just going to take time," Hill said on a conference call Thursday, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense. "So I will just sort of point to the place we focus first, which is North America, and we're having great success there.†Shares of Nike (NKE) have fallen some 20% since the beleaguered athleticwear-and-gear company said it would bring back legendary leader Elliott Hill—counted since their close the night before the announcement—in September 2024.More than a year later, it's uncl ...

Nike - Nike is experiencing significant challenges, with a notable decline in stock performance, down 57% over the past five years, and a continuous downturn for four consecutive years [10][9]. - The company reported earnings that beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, but faced headwinds in China and lowered third-quarter guidance, anticipating a drop in revenues and gross margin contraction due to tariffs [4][10]. - There is skepticism regarding Nike's ability to leverage its brand effectively, as it is not selling shoes associated with its major stars, which is seen as a critical issue for the company [6][5]. - The narrative around tariffs is questioned, as other companies have not reported similar impacts, leading to doubts about Nike's claims [7][8]. FedEx - FedEx reported stronger-than-expected results and raised the low end of its full-year guidance, although its second-half operating profit is still expected to miss consensus by about 5% [11]. - The core parcel business showed a year-over-year increase of 24%, indicating positive momentum, despite some concerns regarding freight operations and potential spin-offs [13][12]. - FedEx is viewed as a solid investment opportunity, with expectations that its stock could retest previous highs around $315, making it a recommended hold for investors [14].

Key Points Shares of Procter & Gamble are down more than 13% so far this year as of Dec. 15. Shifting consumer behavior and macro factors will continue to dominate in 2026. The company is expanding its footprint internationally to combat headwinds in the U.S. 10 stocks we like better than Procter & Gamble › Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is a venerable, reliable blue-chip stock that investors have trusted for over a century. The 188-year-old company's investors don't expect tremendous growth, but in ...

Joining us now, Morgan Stanley, global head of fixed income research and public policy strategy, Michael Zizus. Uh, Michael, it's kind of remarkable to reflect back on 2025 uh, and really think about what the markets weathered on the policy front. Is there anything left in the tank in terms of public policy for 2026.>> Yeah, I I won't say no because that seems like it's probably the wrong answer. But what what what I would say is that next year there's definitely some policy catalyst to pay attention to the ...