Group 1 - The Bank of England is expected to slow its pace of reducing government bond holdings from 100 billion pounds a year due to increased volatility in bond markets, while maintaining its main interest rate [1][3] - Since 2022, the Bank of England has reduced its gilt holdings from 875 billion pounds to 558 billion pounds, conducting outright sales rather than allowing bonds to mature [2] - Economists predict the Monetary Policy Committee will reduce the pace of quantitative tightening to a median of 67.5 billion pounds, a larger decrease than previously anticipated [3] Group 2 - British 30-year government bond yields reached their highest level since 1998, indicating significant market pressure ahead of the upcoming budget [4] - The Bank of England estimated that its quantitative tightening has only added 0.15-0.25 percentage points to British government borrowing costs [5] - A survey indicated that banks believe the neutral level of reserves is between 385-540 billion pounds, while current levels are around 650 billion pounds [6] Group 3 - To completely end active sales and achieve quantitative tightening solely through maturing gilts, the Bank of England would need to reduce the pace of quantitative tightening to 49 billion pounds [7]

Fed Policy & Rate Cuts - The market is closely watching the Fed's next move regarding rate cuts, particularly the timing and magnitude, and whether political influence is a factor [1] - The market currently prices in an 85% expectation of a rate cut, but a strong payroll report (e.g., 300,000-400,000 jobs) with positive revisions could cause the Fed and the market to reconsider [5] - Labor data is crucial for justifying potential rate cuts, as highlighted by Waller, Bowman, and Powell [2] - The Fed might decide to phase out quantitative tightening (QT) at the next meeting, especially concerning mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to avoid upward pressure on mortgage rates while cutting rates [7] Inflation & Economic Data - The super core inflation rate has accelerated from approximately 0.06% in April to 39% currently [3] - Next week's data releases are critical to determine if full employment has taken precedence over stable pricing in the Fed's dual mandate [1] Fed Balance Sheet - The Fed is still allowing $35 billion of mortgage-backed securities to roll off each month, contributing to upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates [5] - Quantitative tightening, while a passive tightening measure, has likely kept mortgage rates higher than they otherwise would be [8]

Core Insights - Citigroup's subsidiary, Citibank N.A., reported an increase in credit card trust delinquency rates for July 2025, although these rates remain below pre-pandemic levels [1][2]. Credit Card Metrics - The delinquency rate for Citibank's Credit Card Issuance Trust rose to 1.42% in July 2025 from 1.38% in June 2025, still lower than the 1.53% recorded in July 2019 [2][10]. - The net charge-off rate decreased to 2.07% in July from 2.12% in June, significantly lower than the 2.91% seen in July 2019 [2][10]. - Principal receivables in the trust fell to $20.7 billion in July from $20.9 billion in June [2][10]. Net Credit Loss and Provisions - The company's net credit loss (NCL) experienced a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% over the four years ending in 2024, with a 2% year-over-year increase in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Provisions for credit losses saw a CAGR of 38.9% from 2022 to 2024, with this upward trend continuing into the first half of 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - Citigroup's profitability may be challenged by rising credit losses in its Branded Cards portfolio, with projected NCL rates between 3.50% and 4% in 2025 [4]. - Economic conditions could further weaken, leading to accelerated losses and increased loan-loss provisions, which would pressure earnings [4][5]. Industry Comparison - In July 2025, U.S. credit card delinquency rates were mixed, with Capital One's rate rising to 3.67% and JPMorgan's to 0.86% [6][7]. - Capital One's net charge-off rate decreased to 4.83%, while JPMorgan's dropped to 1.54% [6][7]. Price Performance and Valuation - Citigroup's shares have increased by 36.6% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's growth of 23.2% [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Citigroup's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates year-over-year increases of 27.4% and 27.7%, respectively, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [13]. - Citigroup trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.57X, below the industry's average of 14.47X [15].

Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 45% [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) continues, with the Fed reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, although the pace has slowed [2][3] - The market is pricing in a higher probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in September [11][48] - Tariffs could cause a one-time price increase, influencing the Fed's decisions regarding rate cuts [26][27][30] Crypto Market Analysis - Lower interest rates and no quantitative tightening typically lead to outperformance of altcoins or higher-risk assets [7] - Bitcoin has outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening and higher interest rates [7][8][9] - Altcoins have been bleeding against Bitcoin, with altcoins down against ETH (Ethereum) by approximately 45% since ETH went home back in April [8][19] - The industry anticipates all Bitcoin pairs may decline around September or October, potentially due to unmet expectations of rate cuts [15][17] Market Outlook and Strategy - The industry expects the 10-year yield is likely heading back up to 5%, and the dollar is expected to build a base over the next several months, potentially rising in 2026 [20] - Ethereum is expected to break through $4,000 within the next few months [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance could increase together, with liquidity flowing into these "blue-chip" cryptocurrencies [23][24] - Assets that are performing well are more likely to continue performing well [44]

Core Insights - JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are significant players in the U.S. banking sector, influenced by interest rate trends and economic cycles [1][2] Group 1: JPMorgan's Position - JPMorgan is the largest U.S. bank with a diversified presence across the financial sector [2] - The bank plans to open over 500 branches by 2027, with 150 already established in 2024, aiming to enhance its physical footprint while integrating digital tools [3] - JPMorgan's net interest income (NII) is projected to be $94.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a nearly 2% year-over-year increase [4] - The bank leads in global investment banking fees, although near-term prospects may be uncertain due to economic instability [5] - JPMorgan's common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 14.2%, significantly above the minimum requirement, allowing for a 7% increase in quarterly dividends to $1.50 per share and a $50 billion share repurchase program [6] - The bank anticipates card net charge-off (NCO) rates to be 3.6% this year, potentially rising to 3.6-3.9% in 2026 [7] Group 2: Wells Fargo's Developments - Wells Fargo has lifted the $1.95 trillion asset cap, enhancing its financial performance and strategic positioning [8] - The bank plans to increase deposits, grow its loan portfolio, and expand securities holdings, which will positively impact NII [9] - Wells Fargo is streamlining operations while investing in its branch network and digital upgrades, aiming for $2.4 billion in gross expense reductions in 2025 [10][12] - The bank also cleared the 2025 stress test and plans to raise its quarterly dividend by 13% to 45 cents per share, with $3.8 billion available for share repurchases [13] Group 3: Financial Projections and Comparisons - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for JPMorgan suggests a 1.3% revenue decline in 2025, with a projected 5.6% fall in earnings for the current year, but a 5.9% increase next year [14] - Conversely, Wells Fargo's revenue is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2025 and 5.4% in 2026, with earnings projected to rise by 9.3% and 14.3% for the same years [17] - Year-to-date, shares of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have increased by 20.3% and 17.3%, respectively, outperforming the S&P 500 Index [20] - JPMorgan's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.06X, while Wells Fargo's is 13.21X, indicating that Wells Fargo is trading at a discount compared to the industry and JPMorgan [22][23] - JPMorgan's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.88%, surpassing Wells Fargo's 12.15% and the industry's 11.93% [23] Group 4: Investment Outlook - While Wells Fargo's regulatory flexibility positions it for growth, JPMorgan is currently viewed as the stronger investment option due to its scale, diversified business model, and robust capital return plans [24] - Despite near-term earnings pressure, JPMorgan's superior ROE and market position justify a premium valuation, making it a compelling choice for investors seeking income and growth potential [25]

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dominance that has now hit a new cycle high and likely very shortly heading to 66%. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel.Give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse. com. This is the first video I've recorded in over a week. I've been out of town and I told you guys that and that all the videos that I was goi ...

Market Analysis of ETH/Bitcoin Valuation - The analysis focuses on the ETH/Bitcoin market cap ratio as a key indicator [1] - The report suggests that the altcoin market on its Bitcoin pair may need to decline further [5] - The analysis considers the potential for ETH/Bitcoin to drop in Q3, which could help altcoin Bitcoin pairs reach range lows [8] - The report highlights the historical rallies of ETH/Bitcoin around May in 2023 and 2024, followed by declines later in the year [3][24] Technical Analysis and Predictions - The analysis is cautious about ETH/Bitcoin breaking through the bull market support band [4] - The report suggests that if ETH/Bitcoin fails to break through the bull market support band in the coming weeks, a drop to find a higher low in Q3 is likely [4] - The analysis considers scenarios where ETH/Bitcoin goes sideways or slightly lower, allowing altcoins to decline on their Bitcoin pairs [25] - The report mentions that ETH dominance wicked below the low from 2019 and had a rally, questioning whether it will break through after rejections [22] - The analysis suggests that a bullish setup would be ETHUSD going lower while ETH/Bitcoin puts in a higher low [33] - The report considers the possibility of ETH/Bitcoin repeating the pattern of the last cycle, with a rally followed by a period of struggle and then renewed strength [36]

Market Analysis - The altcoin market has reached 32 on its Bitcoin pairs, a target projected around mid-June, indicating a devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin [1] - The analysis suggests a potential further decline to 025% on Bitcoin pairs, although the timing remains uncertain [1] - Altcoins often experience short-term bounces during FOMC meetings when QT is announced to continue, but these rallies have historically failed [1] - Bitcoin dominance is projected to reach 66%, driven by the devaluation of altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs [17] - Historical data indicates that significant alt seasons typically occur after altcoins reach range lows on their Bitcoin pairs [31][32] Investment Strategy & Risk Assessment - The report suggests that Bitcoin currently offers a better risk-adjusted return compared to altcoins [25] - The analysis warns against prematurely calling the top on Bitcoin dominance, as it has proven dangerous historically [16] - The content creator expresses a preference for valuing portfolios in Satoshi's rather than USD, highlighting the increased risk associated with altcoins [33] Technical Analysis & Indicators - Altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs are described as oscillators, suggesting a tendency to revert to lower levels [1] - The bull market support band is identified as a rejection point for altcoin rallies on their Bitcoin pairs [1] - ETH Bitcoin's pullback is expected to drive all Bitcoin pairs to range lows [3]

My thoughts for the rest of 2025 and 2026Lately, I’ve been less vocal about my mid and long-term predictions. I’ve mostly focused on the short-term. That’s because, over the years, I’ve come to believe that the best approach is to focus on current data and the next moves. To stay flexible. It’s all about forecasts vs. adaptability [https://t.co/0nmQyLlPpE]But like everything in life, extremes rarely work. It can’t be 100% predictions, nor 0%. Same goes for adaptability. You need both. The key is finding the ...

分组1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for two rate cuts this year, leading to a rally in major stock indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both gaining over 1% [1] - The Fed updated its inflation outlook, projecting core inflation to reach 2.7% in the next year, up from a previous estimate of 2.5%, while downgrading GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% [2] - The Fed will reduce the pace of its balance sheet drawdown, scaling down the monthly cap of maturing treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion [3] 分组2 - Consumer discretionary stocks saw a bounce post-Fed meeting, with all eleven S&P sectors finishing in the green, led by the discretionary sector [4][7] - Tesla's shares gained nearly 5%, with CEO Elon Musk focusing on Full Self-Driving and robotaxis as key growth areas, despite the stock being down over 40% year-to-date [8][9] - General Motors' stock climbed more than 2% after partnering with Nvidia to leverage AI services for advanced driver-assistance systems, with GM stock down only about 6% year-to-date [10][11] 分组3 - GM is rated as a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) stock, with positive earnings estimate revisions indicating potential for stock price increases, trading at 4.3 times forward earnings, below the industry average [11][14] - The market is experiencing volatility, and it is suggested to remain patient and allow trends to stabilize, with a focus on oversold areas attempting to recover [15] - Thursday's price action will be crucial in determining if stocks like Tesla and GM can maintain their gains following the Fed announcement [16]