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Emerging Markets Analysis: Earnings, Valuations, and Currency Correlations
See It Market· 2025-09-17 17:56
Core Insights - Emerging Markets (EM) represent 10-15% of global equity market capitalization, which is significant but often overlooked due to poor performance in recent decades [1][2] - Over the past 15 years, EM has returned 4.6% annualized compared to 11.4% for Developed Markets (DM) and 7.3% for developed international markets, leading to a prolonged period of underperformance for EM [2][3] - In 2025, EM has shown a strong recovery, up approximately 21% compared to 13% for broader markets, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3] Resilience and Market Dynamics - Despite rising central bank rates from near zero in 2021 to 5.5% by the end of 2023, EM has shown resilience, managing the hiking cycle better than in previous cycles [4][5] - The overall growth and increased diversification in EM have made these markets less risky than in the past, with decreasing headwinds as rates begin to decline [5] Valuations and Earnings Growth - EM typically has lower valuations, with a current multiple spread of 20.4x for DM and 13.8x for EM, which is historically wide and supportive of EM investment [6][7] - Relative earnings growth has slowed due to a more tariffed global trade environment, but this is not seen as an insurmountable challenge [8] Flows and Currency Trends - Incremental capital is increasingly flowing into international markets, including EM, which may benefit from a weaker US dollar, historically a positive factor for EM performance [9][11] - Many developing economies in EM are resource-rich, which may enhance their currency strength in a context of inflationary pressures in developed economies [12] Concentration Issues - A concentration problem has emerged within EM, particularly with significant price appreciation in markets like China (up 45%), Hong Kong (60%), and Taiwan (30%) over the past year [13][14] - The high concentration in technology sectors within these markets raises concerns, as many investors may not be aware of the risks associated with this concentration [15] Final Thoughts - Despite some challenges, including slowing earnings growth and concentration risks, the positives for EM investment are seen to outweigh the negatives [16][17] - Attractive valuations and increasing international fund flows suggest that EM may capture a larger share of investment, especially if the US dollar continues to weaken [17]
The Big Driver of Earnings Is AI, Says JPM's Quinsee
Bloomberg Television· 2025-09-16 13:06
We begin this hour with stocks hitting another all time high as investors eye a Fed rate cut for Quincy. Jp morgan rising markets have recovered to new record highs. If policy rates come back into focus, equity valuations are now elevated and markets will struggle for.Joins us now for more folk. Good morning. Good morning.It's good to see you. Let's just go through where things are at right now. Earnings, good jobs data, not good Is one much more important than the other.Yes, it's always about the earnings. ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-09-15 18:45
Market Debate - US President Donald Trump reignited a long-standing debate over the requirement for publicly-traded US corporations to report earnings at quarterly intervals [1] Reporting Frequency - The debate concerns the frequency of earnings reports, which have been quarterly for over half a century [1]
Truist Wealth's Keith Lerner: Market continues to earn 'benefit of the doubt'
Youtube· 2025-09-15 15:35
Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing record highs, with the S&P 500 above 6,600 for the first time, and global markets also reaching all-time highs [1][3] - There is an 80% chance priced in for three rate cuts by the end of the year, which could lead to a small risk of a market setback if expectations are not met [2][10] Earnings and Sector Performance - Earnings remain the primary driver of market performance, with Oracle's recent surge attributed to strong earnings [6][7] - The technology sector continues to show strong earnings momentum, while small and mid-cap stocks are also gaining traction [8][14] International Markets - The company maintains a "team USA" stance but has increased exposure to emerging and developed international markets, particularly Japan [15][18] - Currency fluctuations are a significant factor driving international market performance, with forward earnings estimates for developed markets being negative on a 12-month basis [16] Historical Context - Historically, when the Fed cuts rates at market highs, the markets have generally moved up over the following 12 months, except during recessions [4][11] - The current market has not seen a pullback since April, and any potential pullback is expected to be contained within 4-5% [12][13]
Primary trend of this bull market is higher, says Goldman's Tony Pasquariello
CNBC Television· 2025-09-12 20:13
What will drive markets in the months ahead. Goldman's Tony Pascarelloo telling you what he tells his biggest clients. There he is.He's the head of hedge fund coverage at the firm. He's here with us live. That's a big billing man.There we go. So, here we go. We have a big week next week.What do you think about these markets ahead of it and what are they going to do after it. So, let's just level set the trend. Okay.It's a bull market. The primary trend is higher. We want to keep our eye on the ball.That is ...
Ed Yardeni: Fed doesn't have to cut 50 bps as market rally eases financial conditions
CNBC Television· 2025-09-11 19:44
Market Outlook & Earnings - The market's current rally is partly fueled by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially around 50 basis points [1][3][4] - Q1 and Q2 earnings have exceeded expectations, driving the market to new highs [2] - The market is counting on earnings continuing to make new highs [2] - Technology and communication services account for 40% of the S&P 500 market capitalization and 28% of earnings [7] - Analyst consensus expectations show small caps are showing signs of life [11] Valuation & Potential - The valuation multiple is around 22, which is considered acceptable [3] - A potential "melt-up" scenario could see the price-to-earnings ratio rise to 25, reminiscent of 1999 [5] - If the Fed surprises with a 50 basis point cut, the S&P target could be revised upwards to 7,000 [4][5] - The "impressive 493" (companies outside the Magnificent Seven) also had good earnings and are expected to contribute to market growth [8][9] Risks & Uncertainties - A debt crisis scare, potentially triggered by the government having to refund $500 billion to $1 trillion due to overturned tariffs, could derail a year-end rally [15]
The market is priced for perfection, says Westwood Holdings Group CEO Brian Casey
CNBC Television· 2025-09-11 15:32
For more on the inflation print, the market reaction, let's bring in Westwood Holdings Group CEO Brian Casey. Westwood has more than 18 billion dollars in assets under management. How how are you positioned right now given the backdrop.You know, we're we're always going to invest in highquality companies that are improving that are mispriced. So, that has been our mantra for 42 years and we can always find those kinds of companies. I was going to say, is that harder though with record highs as everything ha ...
Why this bull says the market rally could broaden out even more
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-10 23:17
[Music] Producer prices fell a tenth of a percent in August while expectations were that inflation would increase. We're still awaiting of course Thursday's CPI data to see how consumer prices fared in the month. But a positive signal to investors who are anticipating the Fed will cut rates next week. Ed Yardi, our Denny Research president, joining me now to talk more through all of this. Ed, it's great to see you. So, does this wholesale inflation number sort of confirm what we're going to get from the Fed ...
GME Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Hardware Sales Rise Y/Y
ZACKS· 2025-09-10 14:15
Core Insights - GameStop Corp. (GME) reported strong second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year growth [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were 25 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 19 cents, compared to 1 cent per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Net sales reached $972.2 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $900 million and increasing by 21.8% from $798.3 million in the prior-year quarter [3][10] - Hardware and accessories sales rose 31.2% to $592.1 million, while collectibles surged 63.3% to $227.6 million; however, software sales declined by 26.6% to $152.5 million [4][10] Regional Sales Performance - U.S. sales increased by 32.8% to $724.6 million, while Australia saw a 60.5% rise to $140.9 million; in contrast, Europe sales decreased by 16.1% to $106.7 million [5] Margins and Expenses - Gross profit increased by 13.8% to $283.1 million, with gross margin contracting by 210 basis points to 29.1% [6] - Adjusted SG&A expenses decreased by 22.1% to $218.4 million, representing 22.5% of net sales, down from 35.1% in the prior-year period [6] EBITDA and Operating Income - Adjusted EBITDA was $75.7 million, a significant improvement from an adjusted EBITDA loss of $18 million in the same quarter last year [7][10] - Adjusted operating income was $64.7 million, compared to an adjusted operating loss of $31.6 million in the prior-year period [7] Cash and Debt Overview - At the end of the fiscal second quarter, cash and cash equivalents totaled $8.69 billion, with net long-term debt at $4.16 billion and stockholders' equity at $5.18 billion [11] - Net merchandise inventory decreased to $484.9 million from $560 million in the same period last year [11] Bitcoin Holdings - GameStop's Bitcoin holdings were valued at $528.6 million at the end of the fiscal second quarter [12]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-09-04 23:19
Chinese companies’ second-quarter performance renders a stark reality: earnings proof to justify a blistering stock rally is missing https://t.co/hF3TpteJGv ...