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环球市场动态:历史上中东战争对大类资产的影响
citic securities· 2025-06-19 05:08
Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3,388 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.24% and 0.23% respectively[15] - The Hang Seng Index and its technology sector continued to perform poorly, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.12% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.46%[10] - European markets showed mixed results, with the DAX down 0.50% and the FTSE 100 up 0.11%[8] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, with a projected two rate cuts in 2025, reflecting a cautious economic outlook[29] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year was lowered to 1.4%, while inflation expectations were raised, with the PCE forecast set at 3.0%[29] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.4% to $75.14 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 0.3% to $76.70 per barrel[25] - Gold prices remained stable, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[25] Currency Movements - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.1%, while the dollar appreciated slightly against the Chinese Yuan, trading at 7.189[24] - The Euro to Dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.148, reflecting a 10.9% increase year-to-date[24] Sector Performance - In the U.S. stock market, 7 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 declined, with the energy sector dropping by 0.68%[8] - The technology sector showed resilience, with notable gains in AI-related stocks, indicating a potential rebound in core assets[8] Geopolitical Impact - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, are causing market volatility and influencing commodity prices, especially oil[25] - Historical analysis indicates that if oil prices rise by over 50% due to conflict, it could trigger a recession in the U.S.[5]
如何看AH和美股科技回调——美股七巨头牛市调整复盘【广发策略刘晨明&李如娟】
晨明的策略深度思考· 2025-03-02 05:51
本文作者:刘晨明/郑恺/李如娟 报告摘要 近期美股在增长预期下调、通胀预期上修、微软削减数据中心支出以及对外加征关税等事件冲击之下,股指大幅下挫,MAG7指数自从2024年底见顶以来,到 本周四的最大跌幅达到13.6%。同时,周五港股、A股也出现了大幅调整,特别是近几个月热门的机器人、人工智能等科技板块。 本文我们讨论几个问题: 扫描下图二维码,可进入今晚20:30的路演链接 一、"MAG7"行情复盘: 2023年初以来的上涨趋势中,MAG7指数共有过五次调整;2024年底以来这波调整为第五次。 (1)"MAG7"行情复盘:这次调整是"空中加油"还是"趋势见顶"? (2)"MAG7"调整期间,风格有没有切换,如何应对? (3)"MAG7"行情有何景气投资规律? (4)A股的科技行情处于什么阶段,后市怎么看? (1)第1-4次调整平均来看: 下跌了【35个交易日】,随后花了【19个交易日】指数再创新高;随着行情推进,调整的速度越来越快速,新高的速度越来越慢。第5次调 整,截至2025年2月27日,已持续了47个交易日,下跌13.6%,跌幅超过前3次、接近第4次。 (2)调整的前因后果: 前3次流动性冲击,第4、 ...