Yale and Brookings researchers found that employment patterns remained stable 33 months after ChatGPT's launch, despite tech CEO and AI doomer warnings. https://t.co/NmkcCjfNYt ...

Career Advice - The article discusses steps to take if you are furloughed or laid off [1]

This uptick of inflation that we've been seeing coupled with the jobs payroll jobs numbers deteriorating have put the central bank in a bit of a sticky spot where you're getting deterioration of both sides of the mandate at the same time. If the inflation looks like it's going to be transitory, and I say that word with with with some fear, >> then I think the employment side of the mandate would be dominant. But that you see this uptick in inflation and particularly the uptick in services inflation which is ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expresses caution regarding rapid interest rate cuts due to rising inflation and deteriorating employment conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Employment - Goolsbee highlights an uptick in inflation alongside deteriorating payroll job numbers, creating a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve as both sides of its dual mandate are under pressure [2]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in September, with indications of potential further cuts before year-end [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Goolsbee, a voting member of the FOMC, acknowledges concerns about inflation and employment but notes that data suggests a stable labor market [3]. - He believes the underlying economy can support gradual interest rate reductions over time from current levels [3].

Well, as you know by now, there is no official jobs report today because of the government shutdown. But we found another way to try and get a look at employment in the month of September. We're going to call this our own squawk survey.Evans S is the CEO of Aura Intelligence. That's a platform for workforce analytics. Bill Dunlberg is the chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses.Both have real data on the state of jobs in this country. And of course, we have our very own senior e ...

Career Advice - The article discusses steps to take if you are furloughed or laid off [1]

In a signal of further cooling of the job market, employment in the U.S. private sector declined at a faster rate than expected in August. Learn more here. https://t.co/3wzdnkgZXS https://t.co/3y9NBzdt3A ...

Core Insights - The ISM manufacturing report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.1%, slightly better than expectations but still in contraction territory [2][5] - The prices component remains elevated at 61.9%, indicating rising prices but showing signs of deceleration compared to previous months [3][4] - New orders fell to 48.9%, missing expectations and indicating contraction, which is a concerning sign for future manufacturing activity [4][9] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing sector constitutes about 30-35% of the total economy, and the ISM services index carries more weight in overall economic assessments [5] - The S&P manufacturing PMI came in at 52, matching expectations but lower than the previous month, suggesting a stable but cautious outlook [8] - Overall, the manufacturing data presents a murky picture, with no signs of a significant downturn or rapid price increases, but the decline in new orders raises concerns [9][10] Labor Market Insights - The ADP report showed a surprising decline of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of over 50,000, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market [11][19] - The Midwest region experienced a notable job loss of 63,000, which may be an outlier but highlights regional disparities in employment trends [16] - There are concerns regarding the reliability of the ADP data due to missing information from the federal government, which could affect the accuracy of labor market assessments moving forward [18]

Economic Data Summary - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September shows a headline reading of 49.1%, indicating contraction and the lowest level since March [1] - Prices paid index decreased to 61.9%, down from 63.7%, marking the second lightest number of the year [2] - New orders index fell to 48.9%, below expectations and lower than the previous month's 51.4%, the weakest since July [2] - Employment index recorded at 45.3%, better than the previous month's 43.8%, but still in contraction territory [3][4] - The employment index is the highest since May when it was 46.8% [4] - Interest rates are declining significantly due to weak ADP data, with expectations of a delayed jobs report [4]

Group 1 - Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that it may be appropriate to ease policy further this year if supported by data, while maintaining a modestly restricted policy stance [1][2] - Collins emphasized the need for the Fed to restore price stability while managing risks of labor market weakening, noting that the labor market is not expected to soften significantly [2][4] - There is a current state of heightened uncertainty affecting firms' hiring decisions, with productivity enhancements tempering hiring amid solid economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - Collins anticipates that hiring will increase as firms adjust to the new tariff environment, with inflation expected to remain elevated into next year and gradually return to the 2% target over the medium term [3] - Fed Vice Chair Phil Jefferson highlighted the dual risks of employment being tilted to the downside and inflation to the upside, reflecting the challenging economic landscape [4][5] - The Fed is navigating a complex situation with higher inflation pressures on one side and employment pressures on the other, relying on data that may be becoming less reliable [5] Group 3 - Doug McMillan from Walmart noted that the company is not hiring more and is instead focusing on getting existing employees to perform new tasks, indicating a shift in retail strategies amid competition with Amazon [6] - Retailers are recognizing the existential challenges posed by current market conditions, as indicated by conversations with various industry players [6][7]