Government Shutdown Implications - The likelihood of a government shutdown is rising significantly, with probabilities now in the very high numbers [1][4][8] - The last continuing resolution was passed on March 1st, and the current impasse is partly due to the political fallout from that event [2] - If the government shuts down, critical labor market data, including jobs data, may not be released, which could impact market sentiment [3][9] Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Despite the uncertainty, it is suggested that the market and investors should not be overly concerned about the shutdown's impact on the overall economy [3][4] - Historical context indicates that previous shutdowns, such as during the Trump administration, did not lead to catastrophic economic effects [4][6] - A shutdown lasting a few days may not be significant, but if it extends to weeks, it could have more serious implications [7] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Upcoming labor market data, including the Jolts report, is critical, with expectations of around 7.1 million job openings [14] - Consumer confidence is anticipated to dip slightly from 97.4 to 96 due to the looming shutdown [14] - The Case-Shiller home price index showed a month-over-month decline of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 1.8%, indicating mixed signals in the housing market [10][11] Federal Reserve Commentary - Several Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to discuss interest rates and the economy, which may provide insights into future monetary policy [15] - The upcoming October Fed meeting's occurrence during a potential government shutdown raises questions about its implications [15]

Government Shutdown Risk - The likelihood of a government shutdown by October 1st is a key concern [1] - Disagreement on healthcare among congress members is a significant factor [1] - Odds of a shutdown surged to new highs before the White House meeting [1] - There are approximately 27 hours remaining to reach a deal before the deadline [1] Market Reaction - "NO" shares experienced a sharp move down, exceeding 10%, following a private discussion between Democrats, Republicans, and the President [1] Key Statements - JD Vance indicated that the US is "heading for a shutdown" [1]

Group 1 - Norwegian Cruise Line is making headlines as it rings the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange [1] - Arc Best is also active at NASDAQ, with a positive sentiment among investors despite potential risks from a government shutdown [2][5] - The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite is showing gains, with a rise of approximately 0.5% [6] Group 2 - Electronic Arts shares are up 5% following news of a record-breaking $55 billion deal to take the company private, ending its 36-year run as a public firm [7] - Cannabis stocks are experiencing significant movement, with Tillray up over 28% and Canopy Growth up 13%, driven by President Trump's comments on CBD benefits [8] Group 3 - The potential government shutdown could lead to the furlough of around 900,000 federal employees, which may delay key economic data releases, including the jobs report [11][19] - Goldman Sachs has raised concerns about the market being in a bubble while also indicating that the economic impact of a shutdown would be modest [12][19] - Historically, stocks tend to rebound after a government shutdown, with an average rise of about 3% one month later [20] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals, with a second-quarter GDP increase of 3.8% driven by consumer spending, but weak labor market readings, including only 22,000 jobs added in August [38][39] - The upcoming jobs report is crucial, with economists expecting an increase of 45,000 jobs for September [39][45] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market, with expectations of potential rate cuts in response to economic conditions [18][34] - Analysts suggest that the labor market may see a reacceleration in job growth, particularly in sectors like financial services and construction, as the economy continues to grow [51][52] Group 6 - Gold prices are reaching new highs, driven by government shutdown risks and expectations of further Fed easing, with Goldman Sachs projecting gold could reach $4,000 by mid-2026 [23][24] - Central bank holdings of gold have surpassed U.S. treasuries for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant shift in investment strategies [25]

First, the president says he will hit drug imports with a 100% tariff increase if those companies fail to build out operations right here in America. Those tariffs are kicking in on October 1st. US pharma stocks are reacting in a kind of mixed way right now.You can kind of see now you can see Eli Liy is actually up now. The thinking there Eli Liy has a good amount of its production here in the United States. Merc Fiser, Gilead moving moving a little bit to the upside marginally.So, Madna shares down fractio ...

Federal government shutdown deadline looms, September jobs report could be delayed, Tesla reports EV deliveries, and more news to start your day. ...

Corporate Developments - Lufthansa projected its free cash flow to exceed 2.5 billion euros ($2.93 billion) annually and set earnings targets of 8%-10% for the next two years during its first capital markets day in six years [2] - The airline plans to cut 4,000 jobs, primarily in administrative roles in Germany, by 2030 through digitalization and automation, while investing 600 million euros ($704 million) in a cargo hub at Frankfurt airport [2] - Danish biotech company Genmab's stock fell by 2.7% following its announcement to acquire Utrecht-based cancer drugmaker Merus in an $8 billion deal [3] - AstraZeneca's shares increased by 1.2% after announcing plans to list shares in New York while maintaining its presence on the London market [3] Economic Indicators - Spain's inflation rate rose to 3% in September, up from 2.7% in August [3]

NBC News has learned that even some Pentagon officials were caught off guard by President Trump ordering the deployment of troops to Portland, Oregon after he slammed the city as war ravaged with ICE facilities under siege by Antifa. Local leaders say that has nothing to do with the reality and they're making it clear they don't want or need any troops in their area. Our city is a far cry from the war ravaged community that he has posted about on social media.And I conveyed that directly to him that we got ...

And joining me now is Senate Minority Leader, Democrat Chuck Schumer of New York. Leader Schumer, welcome back to Meet the Press. >> Morning.>> Glad you're in New York. >> Well, we are thrilled to be in New York. Thank you so much for being here in person.We really appreciate it. I have to start off by talking about this big meeting at the White House on Monday. President Trump, all of the congressional leaders.How did it come about. And could this be a sign that you can get a deal done. >> Well, first, how ...

Economic Impact of Potential Shutdown - A short government shutdown (one to two weeks) is unlikely to have a significant macroeconomic or market impact [1] - A data blackout caused by a shutdown would be particularly problematic given the current inflection point in the labor market and the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision [3] - If the shutdown lasts longer than two weeks, it could become a real problem and investors will likely take notice [4] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is currently weak, with little to no job growth in recent months [3][4] - Businesses have pulled back on hiring, reduced hours, and cut back on temporary jobs, but layoffs remain low [5] - The expectation is for a flat job market, and revisions may show a net loss of jobs [6] Consumer Spending and GDP - Second quarter GDP growth was 380% (原文应为3.8%，此处为笔误) and August personal spending was 6%, both better than expected [7] - Strong consumer spending is attributed to the wealth effect from the stock market, primarily benefiting high-income households [8] - The saving rate has declined, indicating that high-income consumers are spending more aggressively [9] Economic Vulnerabilities - The economy is vulnerable because almost half of all spending is done by the top 10% of the income distribution (making over approximately $275,000-$300,000 per year) [12][13] - If the stock market declines and people start seeing losses, the saving rate could increase, potentially leading to a recession given the lack of job growth [15] - Disturbing data on average FICO scores and collapses in auto subprime financing indicate potential pain for the lower income cohort [11]

Let's continue that conversation this morning with Dan Greenhouse, chief strategist, managing director at Solless Alternative Asset Management, who joins us here at Post9. Happy Friday, DG. Good to see you.So, this uh this week, has it been like a a healthy breather going into a ramp in the year end or is the rally as broad as you would have liked. >> No, the rally is not as broad as I would have liked. It's there's a lot of lowquality and uh bitcoin related names that that have led the way, but but also ho ...