There is almost no doubt that we will get some interest rate cuts later this month. The question is not if, but how much - i.e., the consensus estimate indicates ~12% probability for 50 basis points of a cut.Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in the financial management helping top-tier corporates shape their financial strategies and execute large-scale financings. He has also made significant efforts to institutionalize REIT framework in Latvia to boost the liquidity of pan-Baltic capital mark ...

Norway's annual core inflation rate held steady at 3.1% in August, in line with July, official data showed on Wednesday, but underlying data pointed to an acceleration of prices, casting doubt on the prospect of interest rate cuts. ...

Commuters exit a Wall Street subway station near the New York Stock Exchange. Wall Street trading desks expect a hot inflation print when the consumer price index hits Thursday, but they aren’t preparing for a big reaction from stocks with jobs dominating the market narrative. Options traders are betting the S&P 500 Index will post a modest swing of nearly 0.7% in either direction following the CPI report, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Inc.’s head of US equity trading strategy. That’s less than t ...

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index improved to a reading of 51.3, remaining in the "Neutral" zone, up from a prior reading of 50.2 [5] - U.S. stocks closed higher, with all three major indices reaching record highs during the session [1] Labor Market - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down nonfarm payroll jobs by 911,000 between April 2024 and March 2025, indicating an earlier cooling of the labor market than previously expected [1][2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with utilities, health care, and communication services showing the largest gains, while materials and industrials sectors closed lower [3] - UnitedHealth Inc. saw a significant increase of over 8% after providing a positive outlook on its Medicare Advantage business [2] Market Indices - The Dow Jones increased by approximately 196 points to close at 45,711.34, the S&P 500 rose by 0.27% to 6,512.61, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.37% to 21,879.49 [3] Upcoming Earnings - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Chewy Inc., Daktronics Inc., and Oxford Industries Inc. [4]

Core Viewpoint - Donald Trump's attempt to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve has been blocked by a federal judge, highlighting the ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Fed's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Developments - A federal judge ruled that the claims against Lisa Cook regarding mortgage fraud were likely insufficient for her removal from the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - The White House alleged that Cook inaccurately described properties on mortgage applications, potentially allowing her to secure lower interest rates and tax credits [3]. - Cook's lawyer emphasized the ruling as a reinforcement of the Federal Reserve's independence from political interference [13]. Group 2: Economic Context - Trump's calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have not been heeded, as the central bank remains focused on inflation concerns linked to the trade war [5][7]. - The potential for a rate cut may arise due to a deterioration in the employment market, which has been negatively impacted by the trade war [5]. - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes ensuring maximum employment while controlling inflation, which complicates the influence of political demands on monetary policy [7][12].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin and Ethereum are poised for a significant fourth quarter influenced by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased demand for ETFs, with market expectations leaning towards a September policy adjustment following weak job growth data [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - August nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [2]. - Futures markets indicate a high probability of a rate cut in September, as reflected in the CME's FedWatch tool, with the dollar trading near recent lows and gold reaching new highs [2][3]. - Historical data shows that during previous easing periods, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced significant inflows, suggesting a potential pattern for future cuts [4][5]. Group 2: ETF Flows and Market Reactions - In the week of the September 2024 cut, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of approximately $2.4 billion, while Ethereum ETFs added around $600 million [4]. - During the December 2024 cut week, Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of about $1.6 billion, indicating a trend of net-positive flows around policy decisions [5]. - Recent data indicates that Bitcoin ETFs had three daily inflows exceeding $800 million in August, contributing to a cumulative net intake of around $50 billion, while Ethereum's cumulative net flows are in the low double-digit billions [6]. Group 3: Future Projections for Q4 - If the Federal Reserve implements a total easing of 75 basis points by December, Bitcoin ETF net flows during decision weeks could range from $1.2 billion to $2.0 billion, with Ethereum's flows estimated between $300 million and $700 million [8].

Today, investors will closely monitor the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of its preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls for the year through March. The figure is expected to show another downward revision to March payrolls, suggesting the labor market was weakening well before the recent spell of sluggish job growth. Wells Fargo, Comerica Bank, and Pantheon Macroeconomics economists expect the revision to show that the March payroll count was nearly 800,000 lower than currently estimated, or about 6 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. dollar has fallen to its lowest level in nearly seven weeks against a basket of currencies due to disappointing jobs data, which has heightened expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates starting September 17 [1][2] - Preliminary benchmark revisions to payrolls for the period from April 2024 to March 2025 are anticipated, with analysts from Danske Bank predicting a negative revision of 400,000 jobs [2]

By Sinéad Carew and Lucy Raitano NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - MSCI's global equity index rose on Tuesday while the dollar firmed and Treasury yields climbed ahead of key inflation reports following a sharp downward revision in March U.S. employment levels. The U.S. Labor Department said the economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, suggesting job growth was already stalling before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. While the r ...

The markets are now pricing in a 15% chance of a 50 bp rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on Sep 16-17, versus the previous expectations of a zero chance of that 50 bp rate cut. After the fully expected -25 bp rate cut at the Sep 16-17 meeting, the markets are now discounting an 81% chance of a second -25 bp rate cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting, up from a 54% chance as of late Thursday. The markets are now pricing in an overall -76 bp rate cut in the federal funds rate by year-end to 3.62% from the current ...