Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a quarter-point interest rate cut during its October meeting, despite the ongoing government shutdown, with a projected 98% chance of this reduction [1][3]. Economic Context - The government shutdown has resulted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics not publishing the September jobs report, and inflation data has been delayed, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market is no longer in solid condition, which is a shift from earlier in the year when job creation was strong [4]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation remains above the Fed's target at 3% as of September, which is a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 3.1% [5][3]. - Consumer sentiment has declined, indicating that Americans are feeling the pressure of high prices and limited job opportunities, which may lead to reduced spending [12]. Labor Market Trends - Job openings have decreased, and unemployment is rising, suggesting that the labor market is not keeping pace with the number of job seekers [11]. - Powell noted a marked slowing in both the supply and demand for workers, advocating for a less restrictive monetary policy [11]. Rate Cut Implications - A pattern of rate cuts could provide relief to consumers, particularly those with mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt, as these rates typically fluctuate with the federal funds rate [14][15]. - Financial analysts expect that even if inflation data comes in as expected, the Fed will prioritize the deteriorating labor market conditions over inflation concerns [10][9].

Sensex, Nifty trade higher on Fed rate cut hopes, prospects of U.S.–China deal. Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were trading higher early on Tuesday (October 26, 2025), driven by hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and prospects of a U.S.–China trade deal.The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 125.93 points to 84,904.77 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty went up by 39.8 points to 26,005.85.Among the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Larsen & Toubro, Adani Ports, Titan, and Maruti ...

Core Insights - Investors should adapt their strategies when the central bank lacks official data, focusing on alternative indicators and market signals to guide their decisions [1] Group 1 - The absence of official data from the central bank can create uncertainty in the market, prompting investors to seek other sources of information [1] - Alternative indicators such as economic forecasts, market trends, and consumer sentiment can provide valuable insights during periods of data scarcity [1] - Investors are encouraged to monitor financial news and expert analyses to better understand the economic landscape and make informed investment choices [1]

crypto etf, sec,t.rowe price. Photo by BeInCrypto Digital asset investment products saw $921 million in crypto inflows last week as optimism grew for a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut after softer inflation data. Investors interpreted recent economic signals as a sign of possible easing in monetary policy. Powerful inflows and anticipation of important US economic decisions are changing the playing field for crypto. Risk appetites, regional dynamics, and investor reactions to macro signals continue ...

Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a 98% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday [1]

Market Overview - Markets experienced a rise due to softer-than-expected inflation figures, with September inflation increasing by 3% year-over-year and core inflation easing to 3.0%, leading to expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] - Major indexes reached new all-time highs, supported by strong earnings from the auto sector [1] Bullish Stocks - Beyond Meat Inc. (NASDAQ:BYND) saw a stock surge of over 24% after a debt swap that eliminated approximately 97% of old notes, significantly reducing near-term bankruptcy risk, although existing shareholders faced heavy dilution as bondholders now own about 81% of the company [3] - Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) reported Q3 earnings that exceeded estimates with $13.65 billion in revenue and $0.23 adjusted EPS, driven by increased demand for compute due to AI advancements [4] - Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) shares rose after Anthropic announced plans to expand its use of Google Cloud technologies, securing access to over 1 million TPU chips and more than 1 GW of capacity, reinforcing Alphabet's leadership in AI and cloud [5] Bearish Stocks - Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM) reported Q3 revenue of $5.52 billion and $1.71 EPS, but faced a 4% decline in production to 1.42 million ounces and a decrease in gold grades, leading to a stock slip despite strong cash flow due to future headwind concerns [6] - AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares fell after announcing a $500 million convertible note offering, raising concerns about dilution and financing risks among investors [7] Industry Trends - The Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NASDAQ:PBW) has increased by 44% year-to-date, outperforming both the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SMH) and NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), despite challenges from the Trump administration's efforts to roll back clean-energy tax credits [8]

Market Overview - The market is heavily focused on individual company earnings due to the government shutdown limiting macro data [1] - Averages rose due to strong company numbers and a mild CPI report, with the Dow closing above 47,000 for the first time [2] - The S&P 500 had its 34th record close [2] - The NASDAQ increased by 1.15% [2] Economic Outlook - The market anticipates a 0.25% (quarter point) rate cut by the Fed, potentially driven by a stalling economy [2] - Larger layoffs are emerging, exemplified by announcements from Target and Applied Materials [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was tame enough to potentially justify a rate cut [3] Earnings Season Focus - The upcoming week is crucial due to the peak of earnings season, considered more important than usual [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, especially given the lack of macro data due to the government shutdown, which has shifted focus to individual companies [1] - Companies are reporting strong earnings, contributing to significant market gains, with the Dow rising 473 points and closing above 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P increased by 79 points and the NASDAQ rose by 1.15% [2] - There are indications of larger layoffs in companies like Target and Applied Materials, which may impact market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The next week will feature a significant earnings report alongside a Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations of a quarter-point rate cut due to signs of economic stalling [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a rate cut next week, with further cuts likely in December, as inflation data shows little sign of surging [1][2][12] - The S&P 500 has reached all-time highs, driven by expectations of policy easing that will support corporate earnings [5][19] - Consumer sentiment has dropped to a five-month low, reflecting concerns over high prices and their financial impact [3] Inflation Data - The September core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% from August and increased by 3% year-over-year, indicating a slower pace of underlying inflation [4][13] - The CPI report has reinforced the case for multiple rate cuts by the Fed, as inflation remains contained despite tariff impacts on certain goods [9][10] Market Reactions - Equities have shown a positive response, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 1% and the Nasdaq 100 increasing by 1% [2][19] - Money markets are pricing in a high likelihood of two rate reductions before the end of the year, reflecting trader confidence in the Fed's dovish stance [5][11] Corporate Highlights - Intel Corp. has returned to profitability and provided an optimistic revenue forecast, indicating progress in its recovery efforts [19] - Ford Motor Co. expects to recover from a significant fire affecting a key supplier, alleviating concerns about its F-150 pickup production [19] - Procter & Gamble Co. reported better-than-expected sales, as consumers continued to purchase its products despite price increases [19] - Newmont Corp. delivered stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, benefiting from cost-cutting measures amid rising gold prices [19] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. plans to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans, marking a significant step in crypto integration on Wall Street [19]

Market Overview & CPI Analysis - CPI 数据中关税的影响并不明显，整体同比 CPI 仍高于 3% 的目标值[1][2] - 市场普遍预计美联储将在 10 月降息，12 月可能再次降息[3] - 普遍认为市场情绪仍然积极，科技和创新领域仍是投资重点[5] Sector Focus & AI Impact - 策略上，通过银行、保险和公用事业等周期性行业来对冲科技投资，以受益于预期中的宽松政策[6] - AI 的生产力、效率和收入增长预计将在企业采用率达到 50% 以上时才会显现，目前采用率约为 5% 到 10%[6] - 盈利方面，目前非科技行业的盈利表现更为积极，需考虑科技基础设施支出的影响[8] Private Credit & Risk Assessment - 目前看到的私募信贷问题更多与欺诈有关，而非经济状况[9][11] - 预计某些领域的部分信贷会出现违约，但不太可能像金融危机那样大规模蔓延[11] - 经济前景仍然乐观，预计软着陆，加上货币政策宽松，违约风险预计不会大规模扩散[14]