Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2508 rose 2.73% to close at 7,520 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 0.05% to 366,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05% to 80.03%. On the demand side, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) decreased by 5.21% to 243,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 194,000 tons, the inventory at East China ports increased by 12.85% to 1.115 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports decreased by 40% to 90,000 tons. After the centralized restart of large - scale plants, the styrene operating rate has remained high. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant in Hebei is planned to shut down, while a 350,000 - ton plant in the Northeast and a 120,000 - ton plant in Central China will restart, with production and capacity utilization expected to rise slightly. In the off - season of terminal demand, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The finished product inventory of downstream "Three S" products is high, and the profits of EPS and PS are still low; although the profit of ABS has recovered due to weak costs, the demand has not improved. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and it is more difficult to destock. In terms of cost, the US may maintain sanctions on some oil - producing countries, and the situation in the Red Sea region has deteriorated, causing recent international oil prices to fluctuate strongly; the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, and its price lacks support. The market is trading on the expectation of the exit of backward production capacity, and the industrial products sector is mostly rising. Pay attention to the resistance around 7,600 on the EB2508 contract [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract (EB) was 425,364 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 129,452 lots; the closing price was 7,520 yuan/ton. The closing price of the September contract was 7,426 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan. The long position of the top 20 holders was 382,996 lots, a decrease of 292 lots; the net long position was 263,392 lots, a decrease of 16,825 lots; the short position was 399,821 lots, an increase of 2,618 lots. The total number of styrene warehouse receipts was 7,908 lots, a decrease of 6 lots. The FOB South Korea middle - price of styrene was 905 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR China middle - price of styrene was 915 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices of styrene in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7,755 yuan/ton, 7,625 yuan/ton, and 7,635 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price was 806 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB) was 728.83 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF price in Taiwan was 278 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 763 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar. The market prices of pure benzene in the South, East, and North China markets were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,875 yuan/ton, and 5,830 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 80.03%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points. The national styrene inventory was 193,950 tons, a decrease of 5,973 tons. The total inventory at the East China main port was 111,500 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons; the trade inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 55.88% (down 3.84 percentage points), 65.04% (down 0.96 percentage points), 52.4% (down 5 percentage points), 29% (down 1 percentage point), and 73.66% (down 0.43 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From June 27th to July 3rd, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 366,600 tons, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 80.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [2].

2025 年 7 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：暂时震荡，警惕原油上行风险 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,620 | -1.15% | 3,620 | 0.00% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,647 | 0.75% | 3,658 | 0.30% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 42 | (648) | 1,119 | (13) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 3,974 | 1,006 | 15,024 | (1,821) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is facing challenges in profitability due to low capacity utilization in its non-memory chip business [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The non-memory chip business of Samsung Electronics is experiencing low capacity utilization, which is negatively impacting its profitability [1] - The company is expected to continue facing pressure on margins as demand for non-memory chips remains weak [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing fluctuations in demand, particularly in the non-memory segment, affecting major players like Samsung [1] - The overall market conditions for non-memory chips are anticipated to remain challenging, influencing the operational strategies of companies within the sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the expectation of supply increase and the arrival of the terminal seasonal off - season, downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and there is a certain expectation of polyester load reduction. The supply - demand weakening expectation is strong. It is expected that PTA will continue to be weak in the short term, and the TA9 - 1 spread will continue to decline [6]. - MEG: The domestic production of ethylene glycol has a slight increase, the overseas device load decreases, and there is an expectation of reduced imports. However, the downstream polyester demand declines, and the supply - demand structure has no obvious positive support. It is expected that ethylene glycol will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. Although the spot supply of PX was tight during the week, the large decline in costs dragged down the PX price. As of July 4, the closing price of Asian PX was 840 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared with June 27 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The planned maintenance of some PX devices was implemented, resulting in a slight decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization was 84.4%, a decrease of 2.01% compared with last week. The weekly average capacity utilization of Asian PX was 73.48%, a decrease of 1.1% [20]. - **Price Spread**: As of July 4, the PX - naphtha price spread was 260.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 US dollars/ton compared with June 27. Due to insufficient positive support in the fundamentals and weak demand expectations, the price spread declined from a high level [21]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: With the recovery of Hengli Petrochemical and Yisheng New Materials, the weaving load has been decreasing since the traditional off - season. The performance of polyester was not ideal, and the capacity utilization decreased. In addition, there were new device commissioning plans in July, and the expectation of supply - demand contradiction deterioration was strong, which hindered the purchasing enthusiasm and led to a significant weakening of the basis. As of July 4, the PTA spot price was 4835 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 101 [26]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The unexpected load reduction of Yisheng Hainan limited the increase in PTA capacity utilization. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization was 79.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. In July, Helen Petrochemical planned to be put into production, and Hengli had a maintenance plan. It was expected that the PTA capacity utilization would fluctuate slightly [29]. - **Processing Fee**: With the arrival of the traditional off - season at the terminal, the demand - side support was insufficient, and the supply side recovered. Under the expectation of supply - demand deterioration, the PTA processing fee dropped significantly this week. Next week, there was still an expectation of supply increase, and with the approaching of new device commissioning, it was expected that the PTA processing fee would decline slightly [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, although the maintenance of upstream PX was acceptable, new PTA devices were planned to be put into production, and polyester production cuts were implemented. The PTA supply - demand margin weakened, and the balance sheet was expected to accumulate inventory [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: After the geopolitical situation was alleviated, ethylene glycol prices fell and then rebounded from the bottom due to the news of Saudi device shutdown. As of July 4, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4361 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4390 yuan/ton [39]. - **Domestic Production**: The total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol was 59.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%. In July, with the restart of maintenance enterprises, domestic production was expected to increase. In terms of imports, although the devices in Malaysia and Iran restarted, the Saudi device shutdown led to a slight increase in overall supply [42]. - **Import Volume**: As of July 3, the total port inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 542,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared with June 30 and an increase of 36,300 tons compared with June 26. As of July 9, 2025, the expected total arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 84,300 tons [45]. - **Processing Profit**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, but the import arrival was expected to decrease. During the traditional demand off - season, the downstream polyester load continued to decline. As of July 4, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 93.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24.09 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 19.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170.73 yuan/ton compared with last week [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester was 88.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. Although the load of some filament enterprises increased during the week, the large - scale production cut of Yisheng Hainan's device led to a slight decline in domestic polyester supply. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [52]. - **Polyester Output**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and the large cash - flow pressure of polyester, it is expected that the monthly output of polyester will decline significantly [54]. - **Inventory of Filament Factories**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament increased by 1.28% compared with the previous period, mainly due to the output increase brought by the restart of previously maintained devices. The average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber decreased by 0.30% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was stable [59]. - **Inventory of Polyester Products**: Due to poor demand performance, the factory sales data remained sluggish, and the finished product inventory gradually increased [60]. - **Polyester Cash - Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and manufacturers successively carried out price promotions during the week. The transaction center decreased month - on - month, and the cash - flow of most models was compressed [64]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of July 3, the operating load of the weaving industry was 58.09%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 8.32 days, a decrease of 0.74 days compared with last week. The current textile market is cautiously bearish, and downstream orders have insufficient sustainability [69]. 3.5 Summary of the Fundamental Situation of the Polyester Industrial Chain - **Cost End**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran led to a significant easing of the geopolitical situation and a sharp drop in international oil prices. The large decline in costs dragged down the PX price [71]. - **Supply End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of PTA increased slightly, while the total capacity utilization of ethylene glycol decreased slightly [71]. - **Demand End**: The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester decreased, and the operating load of the weaving industry declined. Terminal consumption was weak, and downstream orders had insufficient sustainability [71]. - **Inventory**: The PTA supply - demand balance sheet shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China increased [71].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,250.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.57% observed [1] - Demand for synthetic rubber is weak, particularly in the semi-steel tire sector, leading to difficulties in inventory reduction [1] - The supply of butadiene is expected to continue to decline, with a significant gap between butadiene and downstream capacity, which may lead to price volatility due to low circulation [1] Group 2 - Recent weak performance in the raw material market and ongoing selling pressure have led to cautious market sentiment, with a slight decrease in overall inventory for domestic butadiene rubber producers [2] - Tire manufacturers are experiencing a decrease in capacity utilization rates, with some companies undergoing maintenance, which negatively impacts overall production [2] - As maintenance periods conclude, production is expected to recover, potentially boosting overall capacity utilization for tire manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Supply pressure has slightly eased, but demand improvement remains limited, with cost factors expected to support a stabilization and potential rebound in the market [3]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格下跌 8 元至 5908 元/吨。持仓方面，主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 合约 2509 持仓量为 4.23 万手，持仓-618 手。现货市场方面，华东市场水瓶级瓶片 价格下跌 5 元至 6000 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格下跌 10 至 6050 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 35.42 万吨，较上周减少 1.14 万吨。 | | | | | 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 77.5%，较上周下降 2.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5725 | | | | | 元，下降 3.1%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-300 元/吨，环比增加 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jinhua New Materials Co., Ltd. is applying for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange, focusing on the development, production, and sales of ketoxime products, establishing a green circular industry chain [1][3]. Group 1: Company Background - The company has developed a green circular industry chain consisting of ketoxime/aliphatic oxime, oxime silane, and hydroxylamine series products [1]. - The chairman, Lei Jun, previously held positions at Juhua Co., Ltd., including general manager and deputy general manager [1][3]. Group 2: Related Party Transactions - The company has significant related party transactions with Juhua Group, with procurement amounts of 32,965.04 million, 29,940.15 million, and 26,620.75 million yuan over the past three years, accounting for 38.28%, 35.65%, and 28.38% of total procurement respectively [3][4]. - In 2023 and 2024, the company plans to procure raw materials from Juhua Group amounting to 81,949,053.10 yuan and 65,417,991.14 yuan respectively [4]. Group 3: Raw Material Supply and Production Capacity - Juhua Group sold ketoxime materials to Jinhua New Materials for 16,276.9 million yuan and 13,365.89 million yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively, which exceeds the procurement amounts disclosed by Jinhua [5]. - Jinhua New Materials is expanding its own production capacity for ketoxime, with a planned production start in June 2024, aiming to reduce reliance on external procurement [5]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Product Pricing - The utilization rate of the company's core product, silane crosslinking agent, decreased from 96.19% in 2023 to 76.15% in 2024, with no explanation provided in the prospectus [7]. - The company has been reducing the sales prices of silane crosslinking agents due to a downturn in downstream market demand, particularly in the construction and photovoltaic sectors [8].