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合成橡胶产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:36
态,本周轮胎企业产能利用率或存小幅走低可能,高温天气以及整体订单增量有限等因素影响,月底仍会 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 有企业存灵活调整排产或检修计划,进而拖拽整体产能利用率小幅走低。br2510合约短线预计在11850-12 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 300区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12010 | 310 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 46705 | 10950 | | | 合成橡胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | 30 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11700 | -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11 ...
PVC周报:强预期VS弱现实,止跌企稳-20250825
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:09
【下周展望】 供需延续弱势格局,一方面,新产能陆续释放,年内多数装置已经检修过,预计秋检力度不足,以碱补氯 长期格局下,企业超预期检修概率较低。下周部分检修装置计划重启,预计产量增加。另一方面,8月14 日印度公布最新的进口反倾销税,国内出口优势削减,预计下半年对印度出口增速将下滑,出口支撑弱化 。供需上行驱动不足,但商品市场情绪较上半年明显好转,周五鲍威尔市场降息预期。从盘面走势看, 4746的年内低点仍有强支撑,盘面跌至5000以下做空盈亏比明显下降。 PVC周报: 强预期VS弱现实,止跌企稳 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间: 2025/8/24 证监许可[2015]75号 强预期VS弱现实,止跌企稳 【本周概况】 行情复盘:本周V2601盘面在4951至5119区间震荡,周线4连阴,振幅较上周扩大。上周五夜盘开盘价为 5103,随后盘面先涨后跌,创周内最高点5119。受印度反倾销边际利空影响,盘面自周日日盘跳空低开后 一路震荡下跌。周三上午盘面创周内最低点4951。下午开盘 ...
成材:供需双弱,钢价整理
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:23
晨报 成材 成材:供需双弱 钢价整理 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 原材料: 冯艳成 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 逻辑:上周,247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.25%,环比增加 0.03 个百分点;钢厂盈利率 64.94%,环比减少 0.86 个百分点;日均铁水产量 240.75 万吨,环比增加 0.09 万吨。上周,全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平 均产能利用率 56.67%,环比下降 0.72 个百分点,同比上升 22.48 个百分 点。平均开工率 75.69%,环比下降 0.69 个百分点,同比上升 24.72 个百 分点。上周,唐山 87 条型钢生产线:实际开工产线为 15 条,整体开工率 25.42%,较上周下降 27.12%;产能利用率为 49.23%,较上周相比上升 0.89%。根据调研结果反馈,未来短期 45%的河北唐山钢厂计划检修,但 需等通知,32%的钢厂确定检修,23%的钢厂不进行检修。河北唐山目前已 知日均铁水影响量总计约 4.18 万吨,总铁水量 37-4 ...
福耀玻璃20250822
2025-08-24 14:47
Q&A 福耀玻璃在 2025 年上半年的出口情况如何?关税对出口量有何影响? 2025 年上半年,福耀玻璃的主要出口增量来自欧洲市场,欧洲的出口量约为 230 至 240 万套。美国市场主要以 AM(售后)市场为主,需求相对稳定,上 半年出口量在 70 至 80 万套之间。其他区域的总出口量约为七八十万套。今年 预计欧洲市场将实现进一步突破,美国全年预计出货量为 150 万套,而其他区 域每年浮动在 150 至 200 万套之间。总体来看,关税并未对我们的出货节奏 产生显著影响,因为汽车玻璃作为大众商品,其采购和仓储成本较高,不会因 短期政策波动而大幅调整。 2025 年上半年国内竞争格局是否发生变化?福耀玻璃如何应对? 在国内市场,我们长期保持了约 70%的市占率,并且随着高附加值产品的应用 和 AM 市场拓展,市占率有所提升。然而,由于汽车厂商平衡供应商以及我们 选择性合作策略,一些新进入者,如建材、光伏和电子玻璃企业,通过低价策 略获取订单,但这些行为不足以威胁我们的市场地位。我们认为这些新进入者 不会对整体竞争格局造成重大影响。 福耀玻璃 20250822 摘要 福耀玻璃预计 2025 年美国市场出货 ...
黑色系周度报告-20250822
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:40
投资有风险,入市需谨慎 新纪元期货研究 8/22/2025 黑色系周度报告 石磊 从业资格证号:F0270570 投资咨询证号:Z0011147 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差(未 折算) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/8/15 | 2025/8/22 | 变动 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3188 | 3119 | -69 | -2.16 | 3280 | 161 | | 热卷 | HC2510 | 3439 | 3361 | -78 | -2.27 | 3400 | 39 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 776 | 770 | -6 | -0.77 | 778 | 8 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1730 | 1679 | -51 | -2.95 | 1620 | -59 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1230 | 1162 | -68 | -5.53 | 1350 | 188 | | 玻璃 ...
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20250822
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 10:17
橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号:F03122956 投资咨询号:Z0022861 中航期货 2025-08-22 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 报告摘要 PART 011. 2025年8月20日-8月26日期间,天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加,赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中泰国 南部、柬埔寨西南部等地区,其余大部分区域降水处于中等状态,对割胶工作影响增强;赤道以南高降水量区域主要 分布在马来西亚东部、印尼东部地区,其他大部分区域降雨量处于中偏低状态,对割胶工作影响增强。 本周橡胶盘面窄幅震荡。从宏观面看,本周国内股市不断创出新高但对商品市场提振因素有限,临近09合约交割商品交易 现实端权重增大。从橡胶基本面看,本周国内外原料价格偏稳运行。国内外主产区降雨天气,对原料价格有所提振,但幅 度相对有限,橡胶成本端存支撑。本期青岛保税库一改前期去库态势,出现明显的累库,同时云南入库量较大导致库存攀 升,整体社会库库存出现增长。橡胶下游需求方面,全钢胎开工率延续走高,整体需求有支撑,库存压力不大。雪地胎市 场开始备货,半钢胎产能利用率小幅回升,但库存去化仍旧缓慢。综合来 ...
橡胶产业数据日报-20250822
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:36
胶产业数据日报 ITG 国贸期货 胶水 0 54. 70 54. 70 2025/8/22 | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 | | | 数据来源: Wind 钢联数据库 | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 期货盘面 | 国内 | RU主力 NR主力 | 15720 | 15675 | +45 | | | | | 12600 | 12525 | +75 | | | | BR主力 | 11775 | 11715 | +60 | | | 外盘 | Tocom RSS3(日元/千克) | 316. 5 | 313. 8 | +2.7 | | | | Sicom TF(美分/千克) | 170. 8 | 170. 8 | 0.0 | | | 跨期价差 | RU2601-RU2509 | 1000 | 955 | +45 | | | | RU2605-RU2601 | 95 | 105 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 09:07
合成橡胶产业日报 2025-08-21 用率提升幅度形成一定拖拽。br2510合约短线预计在11600-12000区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 逐步恢复,产能利用率仍存小幅上调空间,但当前整体订单表现一般,企业控产仍将延续,对整体产能利 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11775 | 60 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 3843 ...
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:11
Group 1: Report Summary - The short - term supply of pure benzene in China is expected to exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction may improve as new downstream capacity in August is higher than that of pure benzene [2] - The supply of crude oil exceeds demand, and international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks [2] - Technically, for BZ2603, attention should be paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6300 [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main pure benzene contract is 6205 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the settlement price is 6177 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main pure benzene contract is 11282 lots, up 7924 lots; the open interest is 13106 lots, down 877 lots [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 6250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it is 6095 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 732 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 746.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.6 US dollars/barrel, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 574.5 US dollars/ton, up 3.75 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 44.52 tons, down 0.08 tons [2] - The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.6 tons, down 1.7 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan [2] - The production profit of pure benzene is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1% [2] - The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Group 3: Industry News - China will comprehensively rectify the petrochemical and refining industries, phasing out small facilities and upgrading backward capacity while directing investment towards advanced materials [2] - From August 8 - 14, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 689 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton; the BZ2603 fluctuated widely and closed at 6205 yuan/ton [2] - As of August 18, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 14.4 tons, down 1.37% [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 08:59
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Due to downstream caution and production - sales pressure, procurement may be cautious, and the finished product inventory is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract position is 35,691, down 89; the 9 - 10 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions has decreased to varying degrees, with a maximum decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,100 tons, up 4,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, down 0.07 percentage points; the port inventory is 20,400 tons, up 5,700 tons; the daily start - up rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, up 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, down 3.65 percentage points; the production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan; the social inventory is 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, down 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, down 300 tons [2]. - The weekly start - up rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points; the start - up rate of full - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.75 million, up 130,000; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million, up 1.74 million; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In July 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].