We do want to turn now to more economic fallout from the government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing it is cancelling its October inflation report and delaying the release of its November report. The announcement coming as the White House appears to be responding to growing frustration among consumers and voters on the issue of inflation and the cost of food.The president announcing late yesterday that he's rolling back tariffs on additional imports from Brazil, including fruit, coffee, c ...

My next guest says markets shouldn't overreact to those doubbish comments though. Joining me now is Alon's chief economic adviser, Muhammad Elaran. And Muhammad, it's great to have you on here.I mean, I guess he tried to tilt the consensus of a conflicted committee in a uh dovish direction. We have incomplete economic data and clearly different ways of looking at things. So, uh how does it net out to you.>> It nets out as uncertain. it nets out as whatever the outcome is, it's going to be controversial. It' ...

Paraguay’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 6%, reiterating its forecast that inflation will converge with its target by the end of next year https://t.co/JUjqNDMlbB ...

Economic Outlook for Middle-Income Americans - Middle-income Americans are experiencing increased pessimism regarding their financial prospects, with only 21% believing they will be better off in the next year, compared to 34% who expect to be worse off [1] - This pessimism marks a significant decline from 2020, when 33% anticipated improvement in their financial situation [2] Financial Health Indicators - The percentage of middle-income households rating their finances as "poor" or "not so good" has risen from 32.2% in Q1 2021 to 45.5% in Q3 2025, peaking at 55% in Q3 2024 [5] - The proportion of respondents who pay off their credit card balances in full each month has decreased from approximately 47% in Q1 2021 to 29% in Q3 2025 [6] Inflation Impact on Household Budgets - Costs for necessities such as food, gas, and utilities have increased by 32.7% since January 2021, outpacing the 23.5% rise in middle-income wages during the same period [9] - Households are responding to financial challenges by deferring major purchases, tapping into savings, or increasing credit card debt, which may have long-term implications for their financial goals [10] Stress Factors for Middle-Income Households - Inflation is a significant source of stress for 55% of middle-income respondents, while 47% are concerned about covering emergency expenses [14] - Other stressors include debt (46%), monthly bills (42%), and the ability to enjoy day-to-day life [15]

As 2025 draws to a close, the current bull market is capping its third year—still relatively young by historical standards, but already brimming with unusual and increasingly concerning features: heavy concentration in AI-linked mega-cap tech, a cooling labor market, and above-target inflation. Will 2026 bring these tensions to a head? Presented by @cmegroup https://www.cmegroup.com/openmarkets/quicktake-by-bloomberg.html?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=paid_social&utm_campaign=quicktake_evergreen&utm_content ...

The $7 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation will employ fallback mechanisms for the first time after the longest government shutdown in history derailed economic data collection https://t.co/oX06aDKsj6 ...

Monetary policy is very focused on balancing the downside risks to our maximum employment goal and the upside risk to price stability. My assessment is that downside risks to employment have increased as the labour market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation are less than somewhat. Underlying inflation continues to trend downward.Absent any evidence of second round effects emanating from tariffs. But for these reasons, I fully supported the FOMC decisions to reduce the target range for the federa ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has canceled the release of the October consumer price index (CPI), impacting the Federal Reserve's ability to assess inflation data before its interest rate decision on December 10 [1][2] - The cancellation is due to the government shutdown, which hindered the BLS's ability to retroactively collect necessary survey data [2][3] - The release of November's CPI data has been rescheduled to December 18, after the Fed's decision [2] Data Collection Challenges - BLS data collectors utilize various methods, including personal visits and phone calls, which were not feasible during the shutdown [3] - Online data and household surveys also contributed to the difficulties in retroactively collecting information [3] Impact on Federal Reserve - The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis has also indicated that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, another key inflation measure, will be rescheduled without a firm date [4] - Fed officials have expressed concerns about operating in a "data fog," complicating monetary policy formulation [5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution in decision-making during this period of uncertainty [6] - Despite the data challenges, some Fed officials believe there is still sufficient information to make informed decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The commentary from John Williams, a key Federal Reserve member, indicates potential for further adjustments in monetary policy, leading to a notable shift in market sentiment and expectations for a December rate cut [1][2][3]. Market Reaction - Following Williams' remarks, there has been a decrease in yields, particularly on the short end of the yield curve, and expectations for a December rate cut have risen to approximately 60% from the previous day [2]. - The market's reaction reflects a growing uncertainty among Federal Reserve members regarding the direction of the federal funds rate, as evidenced by the varied positions in the recent dots plot [3][4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Despite the increased speculation about a December rate cut, the expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will proceed with rate cuts at a slow and methodical pace, with no immediate cut anticipated [4]. - Some Federal Reserve officials continue to express concerns about high prices, while others highlight potential softness in the labor market, indicating a mixed outlook [5][6]. Economic Indicators - The recent jobs report showed an upside surprise in the headline number for non-farm payrolls (NFP), but revisions presented a mixed picture, contributing to market confusion [9]. - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is expected to provide insights into inflation trends, which remain a critical focus for the Federal Reserve [10][11]. - Weekly unemployment claims are also anticipated to serve as real-time indicators of labor market conditions, offering a clearer picture of economic health [12].

Core Viewpoint - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that there is potential for further interest rate adjustments in the near term, primarily due to labor market weaknesses overshadowing inflation concerns, which has led traders to increase their expectations for a quarter-point cut at the Fed's December meeting [1][4][13]. Interest Rate Outlook - Williams stated that monetary policy is currently "modestly restrictive" but less so than before recent actions, suggesting that there is room for further adjustments to align the federal funds rate closer to neutral [2][4]. - Following Williams' comments, the odds of a rate cut increased significantly from 39% to nearly 75% [4]. Labor Market Insights - The recent jobs report showed that employers added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [6][10]. - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expressed concerns about the labor market, indicating that the better-than-expected job growth might lead officials to maintain current rates, especially with upcoming labor data being delayed until December [5][9]. Analyst Perspectives - Global brokerages are divided on the implications of the mixed jobs data for the December interest rate decision, with some firms like JPMorgan and Standard Chartered withdrawing their forecasts for a rate cut, while others like Deutsche Bank and Citigroup maintain their predictions for a quarter-point cut [9][10][12]. - Analysts noted that the absence of November labor data could complicate the decision-making process for Fed officials [9][12]. Economic Conditions - Williams highlighted that downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market cools, while upside risks to inflation have lessened, indicating a shift in economic conditions [13]. - The concentration of job gains in acyclical sectors like healthcare may signal a potential economic slowdown, despite resilient consumer spending trends [15][16].