Tariffs Announcement - The US will impose a 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceutical products starting October 1st, with exemptions for companies building drug manufacturing plants in the US or those with ongoing construction projects [1][2] - A 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks will also take effect on October 1st [2] - A 50% tariff will be applied to kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products, while a 30% tariff will be imposed on upholstered furniture, both starting on October 1st [3] National Security Justification - The president cited national security as a reason for the new tariffs on kitchen supplies and furniture, indicating a broader interpretation of national security that includes economic productive capacity [3][17] - Section 232 investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices may lead to additional tariffs, suggesting a strategic approach to tariff implementation [3][16] Impact on Agriculture - The trade war has negatively affected American farmers, particularly in soybean exports to China, prompting the president to develop a mechanism to transfer tariff revenues to support farmers [4] Trade Agreements and Exemptions - Questions arise regarding how these new tariffs will interact with existing trade agreements with countries like Japan, Korea, and Europe, particularly for products already covered under those deals [5][6] - The potential for exemptions from tariffs has raised concerns about crony capitalism and favoritism towards large businesses, as highlighted by industry leaders [8][9] Future Political Landscape - Speculation exists that even if a Democratic administration were to take power, the current tariffs may not be fully rolled back due to the political implications of harming American workers [20][21] - The ongoing use of tariffs as a tool for political leverage may complicate future trade negotiations and exemptions [22]

Let's turn to the broader market action this morning. Joining us here at Post 9 is DWS Group America's CIO David Biano. Welcome, David.It's good to have you. And today we we've got a nice broad rally, although NASDAQ is actually lagging for a change. Do you buy into the the broadening trend that this rally continues and it doesn't have to be led by big tech.It's a Friday morning and and not too bad. It's been a bit of a tough week though for those arguing for the the broadening of uh the equity market. Uh t ...

Core Points - President Trump announced new tariffs, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and upholstered furniture, effective October 1 [3][4] - The tariffs are aimed at protecting U.S. manufacturing from what Trump described as unfair foreign competition [5] Impact on Companies - Ikea, a major player in the home furnishing market, is expected to be significantly affected as only about 10% of its products are manufactured in North or South America, with 90% imported [8][9] - Ikea acknowledged that the new tariffs will impact prices for U.S. consumers, despite efforts to keep costs low through domestic sourcing and manufacturing [11] - Other publicly traded furniture companies showed mixed stock reactions, with some stocks remaining relatively flat despite the tariff news [15][16] Consumer Impact - Homeowners and renters are likely to face increased prices for furniture due to the tariffs, as companies may pass on the costs to consumers [12][14] - Companies are expected to first seek price concessions from suppliers before raising prices for consumers [13]

Core Viewpoint - RH's stock declined due to new tariff announcements and updated manufacturing and spending plans, impacting its operational outlook and financial performance [1][6]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. government announced a 30% duty on upholstered furniture starting next week, aimed at addressing the influx of imports into the domestic market [2]. - New tariffs include a 100% duty on branded or patented drug imports, a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks, and a 50% tariff on kitchen and bathroom cabinets [1]. Group 2: Company Adjustments - RH expects approximately 52% of its upholstered furniture to be produced in the U.S. next year, with this share increasing through 2026 [3]. - The company anticipates an additional $30 million in tariff costs for the second half of the year, net of mitigation, and expects about $40 million in revenue to shift from Q3 to Q4 and Q1 of 2026 [3]. Group 3: Capital Expenditures - RH projects adjusted capital expenditures of $200 million to $250 million in 2026 and $150 million to $200 million in 2027 and beyond, aimed at enhancing supply-chain resilience and supporting long-term brand initiatives [4]. Group 4: Industry Reaction - The tariff announcements have faced pushback from U.S. businesses, with Ikea stating that the furniture levies complicate operating conditions [5]. - Competitors like Williams-Sonoma, Inc. and Wayfair Inc. experienced stock declines following the tariff news [5].

Core Viewpoint - RH's stock declined due to new tariff announcements and updated manufacturing and spending plans, impacting the home furnishings sector [1][2]. Company Summary - RH anticipates producing approximately 52% of its upholstered furniture in the U.S. next year, with this percentage expected to increase through 2026 [3]. - The company has incorporated about $30 million in additional tariff costs for the second half of the year, net of mitigation, and expects around $40 million in revenue to shift from Q3 to Q4 and Q1 of 2026 [3]. - Projected adjusted capital expenditures are between $200 million to $250 million in 2026 and $150 million to $200 million in 2027 and beyond, aimed at enhancing supply-chain resilience and addressing policy-driven cost pressures [4]. Industry Summary - The new tariffs, including a 30% duty on upholstered furniture, have been met with resistance from U.S. businesses, complicating operating conditions for companies like Ikea [5]. - Competitors such as Williams-Sonoma, Inc. and Wayfair Inc. experienced stock declines following the tariff announcements [5]. - A higher U.S. production mix may help RH mitigate import-related volatility, although near-term tariff costs and revenue timing shifts present execution risks [6].

Potential Impact of Tariffs - A 100% tariff on pharmaceutical companies is threatened if they don't build manufacturing plants in the US, potentially increasing the burden on US consumers and insurance companies [1][2] - Tariffs could increase the cost of bringing new drugs to market and negatively impact young startups relying on outsourced opportunities for cost-competitive clinical trials [3] - Short-term concerns exist regarding changing supply lines and the capacity for onshoring final manufacturing of active pharmaceutical ingredients, potentially causing delays in bringing products to US patients [5] Onshoring and Investment - Onshoring of manufacturing is viewed positively, with companies like Eli Lilly, Novartis, and Roche announcing investments of over $20 billion in new plants [4] - Building plants in the US may lead to favorable treatment regarding tariffs, particularly for patented technologies, while generic products may not be affected [6][7] - US manufacturing is beneficial for national security, especially after COVID-19 revealed the risks of outsourcing early-stage and raw ingredient supply lines [11] FDA and Regulatory Concerns - Concerns exist regarding the FDA's willingness to approve certain therapies, potentially impacting investment decisions [8] - Confusing factors, including threats to NIH funding and mixed messages around the FDA process, create uncertainty for investors [12][13] - Efforts to accelerate the drug approval process are viewed favorably by investors and patients [12] Innovation and Market Dynamics - US innovation in treating rare diseases using CRISPR and cell therapy is expected to continue transforming and addressing unmet patient needs [10] - Trade deals with countries like Japan and Korea may shield them from the tariffs [14]

Let's continue that conversation this morning with Dan Greenhouse, chief strategist, managing director at Solless Alternative Asset Management, who joins us here at Post9. Happy Friday, DG. Good to see you.So, this uh this week, has it been like a a healthy breather going into a ramp in the year end or is the rally as broad as you would have liked. >> No, the rally is not as broad as I would have liked. It's there's a lot of lowquality and uh bitcoin related names that that have led the way, but but also ho ...

Market Outlook - Market anticipates a rate cut in October, which is bullish for crypto due to increased liquidity and risk-on flows [2] Economic Indicators - Inflation is stable [3] - Tariffs are not causing an inflation shock [3] - Consumer spending is under control [3]

Market Trends & Dynamics - Major indices initially showed upward momentum but faced downward pressure from NASDAQ, with the Dow up approximately 04% [3] - S&P 500 is up over 2% this month, defying typical weaker September trends [4][10] - New tariffs on imported goods, including 100% on some drugs, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on big trucks, are set to take effect [11] - The market is closely watching whether long-run earnings per share can meet embedded expectations, differentiating current momentum from past bubbles [18] Company Performance & Analysis - Costco stock trended lower, down nearly 4% at the open, despite prior optimism, and JP Morgan cut its price target to $150 from $1,160 [5][6] - Costco's year-to-date performance has struggled, down more than 1%, contrasting with Walmart's over 10% increase [7] - Bettercom shares surged nearly 75% in a week, driven by retail investor interest, with the company projecting profitability by Q3 2026 [33][34] - Bettercom aims to achieve 10% market share in a revitalized housing market, leveraging AI to offer lower prices and faster closing times [40][41] Sector Analysis & Opportunities - Healthcare sector (XLV) has underperformed, up only 2% over the last two years compared to technology and communication services, which are up over 66% [25][26] - Small-cap energy sector shows potential for growth, with Invesco S&P Small Cap 600 Energy Sector ETF (PSCE) displaying improving price and power ratings [29] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - PCE inflation rose slightly to 27% year-over-year in August, compared to 26% in July, potentially keeping the door open for another rate cut in October [10] - Cooler-than-expected PCE numbers have increased the likelihood of October and December rate cuts [31] - Potential Fed rate cuts could significantly increase the number of consumers eligible for refinancing, potentially boosting Bettercom's revenue [42][43]

Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariffs - Wayfair Inc (NYSE:W) shares are responding positively to President Trump's tariff updates, with a 50% levy on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture [1] - RH (NYSE:RH) shares are experiencing a decline due to the same tariff announcements, indicating a negative market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Wayfair's stock is up 0.9% to $85.71, reversing previous losses and showing a 92.3% year-to-date gain, while testing support around the $80 level after a high of $91.77 on September 11 [2] - RH's stock is down 2.6% to $205.80, marking its third consecutive loss and a 47.4% deficit for 2025, with support at $200 potentially containing further losses [3] Group 3: Options Trading Activity - Options traders are leaning bearish on Wayfair, as indicated by a high Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio in the 86th percentile [2] - For RH, options activity shows a significant bearish sentiment with 5,973 puts traded, which is double the typical volume, indicating expectations of further downside [4]