Bitcoin returns above $110,500 on rate cut hopes; US-China risk still major: analysts https://t.co/7TT020AhyV ...

Fed Policy and Labor Market - The Fed is focusing on the labor market and is expected to cut rates, potentially by 25 basis points in October, to achieve full employment [2][5] - Market participants anticipate the Fed will cut rates, with the two-year yield serving as an indicator of future Fed policy [3] - The market is pricing in a terminal funds rate of around 3%, aligning with estimates of a neutral rate, but there's downside risk if the economy softens [11][12] - The Fed's focus on the labor market weakness suggests a path towards lowering the federal funds rate, but cautiously, in increments of 25 basis points [6] - Tariffs are estimated to contribute about 10% to the current inflation rate, with the remaining impact expected over the next two to three quarters [50] Credit Market and Risk Assessment - Concerns about credit quality are emerging, with J P Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning of potential future credit problems, likening them to "cockroaches" [28][31] - Despite concerns, the investment-grade credit market shows resilience, supported by strong technicals and consistent inflows [33][34] - Investment-grade credit markets are experiencing 24 straight weeks of inflows, driven by attractive yields, while high-yield markets saw outflows [34][35] - Spreads between investment-grade banks and the rest of investment grade are relatively flat, indicating strong performance by big banks, but investors are advised to be cautious [38][39] Economic Outlook and Market Dynamics - The U S remains the best-performing country in terms of growth globally, despite trade war concerns with China [16][17] - The dollar's exposure has been somewhat hedged away, and foreign demand for U S assets, including corporate mortgage bonds, remains strong [16]

Core Insights - Gold is experiencing its largest weekly gain in five years, with prices reaching an all-time high near $4,380 an ounce, marking an increase of approximately 8% this week, the highest since March 2020 [1] - Silver has also reached new highs, with prices hitting nearly $54.50 an ounce, reflecting an increase of over 85% this year [3] Group 1: Market Drivers - Concerns over credit quality in the US and renewed trade tensions with China are driving investors towards precious metals as safe-haven assets [2] - Geopolitical risks, rising public debt, and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence are contributing to the increased demand for gold and silver [2] Group 2: Price Movements and Trends - Gold has surged more than 60% this year, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds, with traders anticipating at least one significant US rate cut by year-end [3] - The London silver market has tightened significantly, leading to a price increase above New York silver futures, with borrowing costs for silver sitting around 20% [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Over the past week, over 15 million ounces of silver have been withdrawn from Comex warehouses in New York, with much of it likely heading to London to alleviate tightness in the market [5] - A notable outflow of 10 million ounces from silver-backed exchange-traded funds occurred on Thursday, contributing to the ongoing supply dynamics [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged to a record high, exceeding $4,280 an ounce, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and escalating US-China trade tensions [1][4] - The price of gold has increased over 60% this year, supported by central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and rising demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Traders are anticipating at least one significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with indications from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting a quarter-point reduction is likely later this month [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - The silver market is experiencing a liquidity crunch in London, leading to a global search for the metal and pushing benchmark prices above futures prices in New York, with prices reaching over $53 an ounce [6] - Over the past week, more than 15 million ounces of silver have been withdrawn from Comex warehouses in New York, with much of it expected to be sent to London, although strong ETF inflows of nearly 11 million ounces have further tightened London stocks [7] - Silver prices have also seen a significant increase, with a rise of more than 3% on Wednesday, reflecting the tight market conditions [1][6]

Core Insights - The article highlights a conflict between a weakening jobs market and ongoing economic growth, as discussed by a Federal Reserve governor [1] Group 1 - The jobs market is showing signs of weakness, which may impact economic stability [1] - Despite the weakening jobs market, economic growth continues to persist [1]

🚨 JUST IN: FED OFFICIALS CALL FOR RATE CUTS IN OCTOBERWALLER: "Rate cut is the right thing to do"WALLER: "We can cut 25 bps, see what happens next"MIRAN: "Fed should cut 50 bps but expect 25 bps"MIRAN: "25 bps is too slow a pace"Probability for a 25 bps cut = 95% ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The labor market shows downside risks due to declines in both labor supply and demand [1] - Asian stocks rebounded after three days of losses, driven by optimism for a potential Fed rate cut in October [1] - A weakening dollar is expected, with a potential depreciation of 4% to 6% in 2026 [2] - Increased market volatility is expected due to known and unknown factors, including the upcoming apex summit and tariff-related uncertainties [2] Trade War & Geopolitical Tensions - The U S may stop importing Chinese cooking oil in retaliation for Beijing's refusal to buy American soybeans [1] - China's curbs on rare earth exports, materials needed for fighter jets and electric vehicles, are a key negotiation tool [1] - The real conflict between the U S and China will be over the weaponization of artificial intelligence [3] Investment Strategies & Opportunities - Investors are derisking and taking some risk off the table due to factors including 100% official tariffs [1] - Opportunities are being found in Asia, particularly in Korea, related to the AI ecosystem and chip manufacturing [2] - High-tech manufacturing and technology sectors in China are attractive investment areas, driven by the growth of the middle class [4] - Gold is seen as an interesting proposition for portfolio diversification, with potential for higher prices due to bank buying and strong retail demand [2] U S Submarine Industrial Base - The U S is facing a massive issue with its submarine industrial base, with next-generation submarine programs facing delays [6] - The Columbia Class submarines are facing delays of 12-17 months, and Virginia Class attack submarines are facing delays of 24-36 months [6] - The U S Navy needs to hire 140,000 workers over the next decade to meet the growing need for submarine construction and maintenance [6]

Copper rebounded after Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged another US rate cut and traders said a price of $12,000 a ton is within reach https://t.co/sUQpsY7fJB ...

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Got to start with that Nvidia news. The idea of uh Chinese regulators and the government cracking down on on chip imports of Nvidia's chips. Uh what that could mean for the broader markets especially considering the waiting of Nvidia.>> Yeah, I mean obviously it's not good news. I mean we we saw some of the the news uh about rare earths a couple days ago as well. I I think putting the screws uh to the US a little bit ahead of the next round of negotiations u makes a lot of sense.you know, as far as Nvidia, ...