Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and publications, personal analysis, and opinions intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages individuals to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article states that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Trading Strategy - The strategy utilizes support and resistance levels to identify key market areas before price movements [1] - It aims to find areas where supply outweighs demand or demand outweighs supply, visually represented on a chart [3][4] - The analysis helps determine if a price will continue in a trend or break out into a new trend [5] - Drawing accurate trend lines on charts is crucial for actionable trading strategies, identifying areas where price bounces repeatedly [7][10] - Parallel channel tools can be used to anticipate potential continuation of a trend after a breakout, identifying high-probability areas for demand to outweigh supply [23][25] Risk Management - The strategy involves setting stop-loss orders outside of identified trend lines to contain risk if the trend doesn't follow the anticipated direction [31] - Traders can leave take-profit orders open-ended to allow profits to run while capping the risk [31] - Reducing risk over time by trailing stop-loss orders based on new highs or lows is a key component [34][39] Performance and Examples - The presenter claims to have had one of the best trading months, with over $20,000 in profit in one week [1] - Examples are provided of trades where risk was managed, and profits were allowed to run, resulting in significant returns [41][45] - One example shows a trader achieving a 34x risk factor on a single trade, resulting in a 473% return [41]

Group 1: Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - KDP is currently considered to be in the "buy zone," suggesting it is a good time to build a position in KDP stock [1] - Institutional trends are identified as a robust upside catalyst for KDP [1] - The projected 10-week outcomes for KDP stock range from $27.12 to $27.37, with price clustering around $27.22 [8] Group 2: Texas Instruments (TXN) - TXN exhibits a significant spread between the highest analyst price target and the average outlook, at 30.2%, indicating a lack of consensus among analysts [10] - The forward 10-week return profile for TXN stock ranges from $159 to $169, with price clustering expected around $167 [11][12] - The current structure of TXN stock is in a 3-7-D formation, expanding the expected risk-reward spectrum to $157.50 on the low side and $175 on the high [11] Group 3: Carvana (CVNA) - CVNA reported revenue of $5.65 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5.08 billion, but fell short on guidance, leading to a 14% stock decline [13] - The projected 10-week outcomes for CVNA range from $290 to $365, with price clustering around $319 [14] - CVNA is currently in a 6-4-D sequence, with a risk tail around $290 and a reward tail potentially exceeding $400, indicating a significant upside opportunity [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the extensive experience and diverse background of the founder of Bern Factor LLC, emphasizing a strong foundation in both quantitative and qualitative analysis, as well as technical analysis [1] Group 1: Company Background - Bern Factor LLC is an independent research and publishing firm located in Virginia, founded by an individual with nearly 40 years of investing and analysis experience [1] - The founder has a background as a former CPA and became a CFA charter holder in 2000, showcasing a strong professional credential in finance [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The founder's investment philosophy is influenced by notable figures such as Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, indicating a value-oriented approach to investing [1] - The founder has a broad perspective on macroeconomics and detailed operational insights, having worked in various sectors including retail, factory work, and management roles [1] Group 3: Experience and Expertise - The founder has over 20 years of experience in both public and private sectors, providing a unique perspective that combines theoretical knowledge with practical experience [1] - The founder's early involvement in investing dates back to the 1960s, indicating a long-term commitment to understanding market dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided may not be real-time or accurate, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] - The article warns that trading decisions should be made at the individual's full responsibility, and reliance on the information provided is discouraged [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages individuals to perform their own research before making investment decisions and to avoid investing in instruments that are not fully understood [1]

Core Insights - The Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) employs a model-driven methodology focused on capital appreciation with limited drawdowns, utilizing technical analysis to identify long-term trends and major reversals [1][6] Performance Summary - TACK achieved a total return of 4.20% in September, outperforming the Russell 1000 Equal Weight Index (0.97%) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (3.56%) [2] - For Q3, TACK returned 6.68%, compared to 6.07% for the Russell 1000 Equal Weight Index, benefiting from exposure to outperforming ETFs like GLDM and XLK [4] - Year-to-date return for TACK in 2025 stands at 10.76%, ahead of the benchmark return of 9.31% [2] Sector Contributions - Key holdings contributing to TACK's outperformance include SPDR® Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM), Technology Sector SPDR® (XLK), Communication Services Sector SPDR® (XLC), Utilities Sector SPDR® (XLU), and Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR® (XLY) [3] - TACK's strategy involved removing exposure to underperforming sectors such as Consumer Staples (XLP), Energy (XLE), and Materials (XLB), which has positively impacted performance [4] Positioning and Strategy - As of Q3, TACK maintained a disciplined positioning with approximately 87.2% equity exposure, complemented by allocations to Treasuries and gold [5] - The model will continue to drive exposure into Q4, with no changes made for October as technical indicators remain positive for the same sectors held in September [6] Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 Index in 2025 is led by a concentrated group of megacap stocks, particularly in technology and communication services, which may impact major indices due to a recent loss of momentum [7] - Defensive sectors like utilities are expected to gain favor in a weaker market environment, while technology remains a focus for long-term investment [8] Risk Management - TACK's methodology mitigates single-cohort risk by anchoring decisions to sector trend momentum rather than market capitalization, refreshing sector exposure on a monthly basis [9][10]

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets [1] - He has worked as a financial journalist and covered various futures markets in the U.S. [1] - Jim is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] Group 2 - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim is a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] Group 3 - Jim provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]

My invalidation on bullishness is weekly closes below $98k.Technically the monthly structure goes all the way down to $74k but ain’t no way I’m holding all the way down there.Lose $100k essentially and we reevaluate. ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing all-time highs, described as an "unendable beast" that continues to rise despite concerns about buying at high levels [2][3] - There is a sentiment of waiting for an intermediate pullback before making significant trades [3] Company Analysis: Super Micro (SMCI) - Super Micro has seen a performance increase of over 40% in the last six months, but recently lowered its guidance for the first quarter, causing concern among investors [5] - The strategy involves buying implied volatility leading up to earnings on January 14 and selling before the earnings announcement [6] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish setup with the stock making higher highs and higher lows, currently in a cup and handle pattern [9][10] - Key resistance is at $62.50, with support around the 200-day moving average at approximately $42-$43 [12][13] Company Analysis: Astera Labs - Astera Labs is down about 0.5% following a downgrade from Barclays to equal weight, with a price target unchanged [14] - The focus is on a call spread to the upside going into earnings on January 14, targeting a breakout above the 50-day simple moving average [15] - The stock is currently trading around $169, approximately 12.5% below the $190 level where bullish options activity has been noted [21] Company Analysis: Reddit - Reddit's earnings are expected to be significant, with a call calendar strategy being employed due to the disparity in implied volatility [22][23] - Historical performance shows that Reddit's stock has risen in four out of six earnings reports since its IPO [24] - Technical analysis reveals an expanding megaphone pattern, with potential resistance around the $250 mark and support near the 200-day moving average [27][30]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding technical analysis as a tool for investors, highlighting that price movements reflect supply and demand dynamics rather than underlying causes [17][18] - It discusses the psychological aspects of market behavior, noting that investor emotions can lead to irrational decision-making, which is a fundamental principle of technical analysis [17][21] - The report outlines various charting techniques and patterns that can be utilized to predict market movements, including trend lines, channels, and specific chart patterns like head and shoulders, triangles, and saucers [20][64][95] Summary by Sections Section I: Introduction - The introduction discusses the influence of behavioral finance on investor psychology and the role of technical analysis in capturing market trends [17][21] Section II: The Basics - This section covers the construction of different types of charts, including bar, candlestick, and line charts, and explains their significance in technical analysis [29][30] - It also introduces point and figure charts and market profile techniques, emphasizing their utility in identifying price movements and trends [31][35] Section III: Trend Lines and Channels - The report explains how to identify and draw trend lines, noting that trends can indicate support and resistance levels [44][48] - It discusses the significance of volume in confirming trends and the implications of trend line breaks [48][49] Section IV: Chart Patterns - This section categorizes chart patterns into reversal and continuation patterns, detailing how to identify and interpret them for trading decisions [64][95] - Specific patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, and triangles are described, along with their expected outcomes and volume behavior [74][95]