More youth and young adults are unemployed than at any point in the last 9 years, outside of recession.unusual_whales (@unusual_whales):US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo ...

Unemployment in Argentina fell in the second quarter even as overall economic activity slightly contracted, a reprieve for job seekers and President Javier Milei amid a growing list of setbacks https://t.co/Yo8Ocp5pUO ...

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Wanted to share a few thoughts tonight...This is from the September 11th MIT publication that dropped on @RealVision:For starters, unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1.That keeps the Fed engaged and is why, as I noted in last week’s video update, the market has started pricing in a higher probability of cuts at the September, October, and December meetings...US unemployment is now at 4.3%, right on the Fed ...

The number of unemployed Canadians receiving government assistance has reached the highest level since February 2022 https://t.co/Z14HIBsCQl ...

Group 1 - Treasury yields are increasing as investors adjust their growth and inflation expectations following a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth estimates for this year and next, with stronger growth anticipated in 2027, while also slightly lowering its unemployment forecast [2] - Fed officials indicated the possibility of two additional quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year and another reduction in 2026, highlighting concerns over softer job growth despite inflation risks [2]

Economic Policy and Federal Reserve Actions - Senator Elizabeth Warren argues that the Federal Reserve had to cut interest rates to protect American jobs, indicating a weak job market despite inflation concerns [1] - The inflation rate is currently at 2.9%, down from a high of 9% under the Biden administration, but the job market shows signs of weakness with unemployment at 4.3% [1] - Consumer debt has increased by $4 trillion over the past six years, indicating that many families are struggling to make ends meet without borrowing [1] Impact of Tariffs and Healthcare Costs - The Trump administration's tariffs are driving up costs for American families, contributing to rising prices in groceries, utilities, and real estate [2][3] - The Republicans have cut healthcare access for 15 million Americans, which is expected to increase costs for those with health insurance as well [3] Economic Disparities - There is a growing divide in the economy, with significant gains for Wall Street and the wealthy, while many Americans are facing increased financial burdens [1] - The current economic policies are criticized for benefiting a small number of billionaires at the expense of the broader population [4]

Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut of the year, lowering its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25% [1] - The board voted 11 to 1 in favor of the rate cut, signaling expectations for two more cuts before year-end [1] - One governor favored a larger 0.5 percentage point cut [2] - The Fed's interest rate projections have fluctuated based on factors like trade tensions [4] Labor Market - The Fed is shifting its focus from inflation to the softening jobs market [5] - Job creation has slowed, with the last four months averaging only 27,000 jobs per month [6] - There are now more people looking for jobs than there are jobs available, a sign of a weakening labor market [9][10] - 26% of unemployed individuals have been unemployed for 6 months or more, a level last seen in 2016 [12] - Young college graduates are facing a tough hiring season [13] Inflation and Growth - The Fed is willing to accept slightly higher inflation to prioritize jobs [17] - Inflation is projected to gradually decline but not reach the 2% target until 2028 [16] - Growth is expected to remain below the levels of 2023 and 2024, projecting around 1.5% going forward to 2028 [18][19]

Labor Market Overview - Australian unemployment rate remained stable last month [1] - The economy experienced job losses [1] - Fewer individuals are actively seeking employment [1] - The labor market is characterized as tight [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The Reserve Bank maintains a cautious approach to policy easing [1]

New Zealand’s economy shrank much more than economists forecast in the second quarter as rising unemployment and global uncertainty curbed demand https://t.co/m3A5yInPVX ...

Group 1 - JP Morgan has lowered its prime lending rate to 7.25%, typically a response to a Fed rate cut, indicating a downward trend in rates [1] - The Fed funds rate is currently at 4.08%, with projections suggesting it may end the year around 3.6% after two rate cuts, reflecting a gradual shift in monetary policy [1][18] - The Fed's dot plot reveals mixed opinions among members regarding future rate cuts, with one member advocating for five cuts, while others prefer no further cuts this year [1][18] Group 2 - The Fed is facing a dual mandate of maintaining stable prices (targeting 2% inflation) and achieving full employment, which are currently in conflict [2][14] - Job creation has significantly decreased, with new jobs dropping from 150,000 to 25,000 per month, prompting concerns about the labor market [3][22] - The Fed's recent rate cut is seen as a risk management strategy to stimulate employment amidst a deteriorating job market [4][16] Group 3 - The current economic environment shows a lack of widespread dissent within the Fed, with only one member opposing the recent decision, indicating a level of consensus [7][11] - The Fed's approach to managing inflation and employment is complicated by external factors such as tariffs, which could lead to price increases [26][30] - There is a notable disparity in economic recovery, with the top 20% of Americans driving the economy while the bottom 80% face stagnation, affecting overall inflation dynamics [31][32]