Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after October's Fed meeting. Officials remain divided over December's rate decision. Hu Yousong / Xinhua via Getty Images Close Key Takeaways What should the Fed do to fight high inflation while preventing the job market from collapsing? Ask its 12 leaders and get 12 different answers. It's up in the air whether the Fed will lower its key interest rate for a third time in as many meetings in December. The chances of a rate cut were hovering around 50% Tuesday, acco ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market has seen prices surge to $4,250/ounce, marking a 60% increase year-to-date, with expectations for continued outperformance through the decade [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Bullish Outlook on Gold - Foreign central banks are net buyers of gold, reversing a trend of net selling prior to the 2008 financial crisis, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury bonds and geopolitical tensions [8]. - Persistent inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with expectations for re-acceleration due to factors like a depreciating dollar and high fiscal deficits, leading investors to seek scarce assets like gold [8]. - The relative geopolitical and economic power of the U.S. is declining, with its share of global GDP dropping to 12.7% from 35% in 1944, prompting countries to trade in local currencies and increasing gold's appeal as a reserve asset [8]. - Gold is becoming more useful as a neutral reserve asset, with a growing share of international trade being conducted in local currencies and imbalances settled in gold [8]. - Western investors are under-allocated in gold compared to Asian investors, with U.S. family offices holding only about 1% in commodities, indicating potential for increased demand as allocations shift [8]. - Physical gold stores in the West are low and declining, with significant quantities moving to Eastern countries, which could lead to price increases as shortages develop [8]. - The global Debt/GDP ratio is at an all-time high, with countries likely to alleviate debt issues through currency depreciation against gold, supporting higher gold prices [8]. - Trust in U.S. institutions, including the Federal Reserve, is declining, which historically correlates with rising gold prices [8]. - The Trump administration's desire for a lower dollar is evident, with the dollar index declining by about 10% in 2025, enhancing gold's performance in dollar terms [8]. - Gold remains inexpensive relative to the U.S. monetary base, with the value of gold owned by the U.S. government representing only 15% of the monetary base, suggesting significant upside potential [9]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Strategy - The Appleseed Fund Institutional Class generated a 19.14% absolute return over the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, outperforming the Morningstar Global Markets Index [12]. - The fund has been positioned for an inflationary, slow-growth economy, with a cautious approach that has limited investment returns during a strong stock market rally [12]. - The fund's current asset allocation favors sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and agriculture, with increased exposure to companies with non-U.S. dollar cash flows [15].

Most Small Businesses Planning Price Hikes As Inflation Escalates, Report Findshttps://t.co/qNnozS8OeM https://t.co/UQ9toO4roc ...

Market Outlook - Markets are anticipating Nvidia's earnings report for insights on the AI outlook, along with earnings from Target and Walmart to gauge consumer spending health [1] - The US Nov NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose by 1 to a 7-month high of 38, surpassing expectations of no change at 37 [1] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims were reported at 232,000 for the week ending October 18, with continuing claims rising by 10,000 to a 2-month high of 1.957 million [2] - Richmond Fed President Barkin's dovish comments regarding layoffs by large companies and inflation expectations supported stock market recovery [2] - The 10-year T-note yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.12% following ADP's report of an average job loss of 2,500 per week in the four weeks ending November 1 [2] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes extended declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 reaching 1-month lows, driven by weakness in technology stocks [3][4] - Amazon.com and Microsoft saw significant declines of over 4% and 2% respectively after a downgrade by Rothschild & Co Redburn [3][10] - Home Depot's stock fell over 6% after cutting its full-year earnings guidance, indicating reduced consumer spending on home improvements [3][12] Earnings Season Insights - Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 82% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, leading to a 14.6% increase in earnings, significantly above the expected 7.2% [6] - Home Depot reported Q3 comparable sales growth of only 0.2%, below the consensus of 1.36%, and adjusted its full-year operating margin estimate downwards [12] International Market Trends - Overseas stock markets also experienced declines, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.88%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.81%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 3.22% [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - December 10-year T-notes closed up by 4.5 ticks, with the yield falling to 4.121%, driven by stock market weakness and labor market concerns [8] - European government bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year German bund yield decreasing by 0.6 basis points [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts aim to stimulate job creation amid a slowdown in the labor market, but experts express skepticism about their effectiveness in addressing underlying issues such as a shrinking workforce and the impact of artificial intelligence [3][4][9]. Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, with job losses occurring in June for the first time in four years, indicating a significant slowdown in job creation [2]. - The labor force participation rate was at 62.3% in August, a full percentage point below pre-pandemic levels, highlighting challenges in labor supply [1]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the current labor market situation as a "curious balance," where low unemployment persists despite fewer job seekers [2]. Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in recent meetings, with potential for further cuts in December to stimulate hiring [3][10]. - Lower interest rates are intended to reduce borrowing costs, encouraging consumer spending and business expansion, which could lead to increased hiring [6][7]. Economic Implications - Fed officials are divided on whether to continue cutting rates to boost the job market or maintain higher rates to control inflation, which has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for five years [3][10]. - Some experts argue that rate cuts may not effectively address labor market weaknesses, suggesting that a lack of skilled workers could lead to inflation rather than job growth [9][11]. Consumer Behavior - High borrowing costs are currently hindering low- and middle-income families from making significant purchases, such as cars, which could further strain the economy [8]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports a rate cut in December to alleviate financial pressures on households and prevent further deterioration in the labor market [8].

Over the past 20 years, Walmart has faced stiff challenges from e-commerce (Amazon) and big-box brick-and-mortar retailers (Target). At times, its retail dominance has been questioned, leading to investors selling shares. Recently, however, doubts have quieted, and Walmart's stock price has soared. One reason is the company's reputation as the low-priced leader at a time when consumers are increasingly cash-strapped. Another is Walmart's decision to take a page out of Amazon's book, investing heavily in e ...

The Richmond Fed chief says assessing inflation is especially challenging in the absence of official statistics. ...

⚡️ OPINION: Journalist and author Natalie Brunell argues Bitcoin can help defend against inflation and declining social mobility.She says people must first understand how the financial system and money supply work. https://t.co/99Gj6OeIVz ...

Market Overview - All three major stock indexes experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping approximately 450 points (0.9%), the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq falling by 0.8% [1] Tech Stock Performance - Major tech stocks such as Amazon and Microsoft each fell by 3.5%, while Nvidia declined by 2.8%. Other notable declines included Meta (2.5%), Palantir (2.5%), Tesla (2.4%), Alphabet (1.8%), Broadcom (1%), and AMD (5.5%) [2] - Home Depot led losses in the Dow with a 4.3% drop following an earnings miss, alongside declines in several bank stocks including Visa (1.8%), American Express (1.6%), JPMorgan Chase (0.7%), and Goldman Sachs (0.3%) [2] Investor Sentiment on AI Stocks - A Bank of America survey indicated that 45% of global fund managers perceive AI stocks as being in a bubble, with concerns that some companies are over-hyped and disconnected from their actual value [3] - Approximately 53% of investors believe AI stocks are already in a bubble, a slight decrease from 54% in October [3] - The survey highlighted that concerns over the magnitude and financing of the AI boom are driving investor sentiment, marking the first time since 2005 that a majority expressed worries about overinvestment in the sector [3]

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin offered an optimistic inflation outlook, while suggesting the labor market may be weaker than available data signal https://t.co/S9SvSmA11f ...