1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, while industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year - on - year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is picking up, industrial demand is based on demand, and new production capacities are coming on stream, increasing supply - side pressure. Exports have improved, but the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 0, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is based on demand, agricultural demand is rising, and improved exports are boosting market sentiment. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Export improvement is a bullish factor [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply and new production capacity launch are bearish factors [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand are the main logics [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (-10), Shandong spot is 1630 (-10), Henan spot is 1640 (0), and FOB China is 2834 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1630 (-8), the basis is 0 (-2), UR05 is 1701 (-10), and UR09 is 1716 (-6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000 tons), the number of warehouse receipts is 7302 (-268), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.437 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 100,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 million tons | - | 19.5681 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 236,600 tons | 24.0519 million tons | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 378,600 tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 378,300 tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 357,200 tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 446,200 tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 446,500 tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 514,000 tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report analyzes the urea market on November 25, 2025, concluding that the overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, but the improvement in exports boosts the market sentiment. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. On the demand side, agricultural demand has rebounded due to the influence of Northeast China, and industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the market sentiment. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1640 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 2, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: For the UR main contract, industrial demand is mainly based on demand, agricultural demand has rebounded, and the improvement in exports compared with the previous period has boosted the market sentiment. The overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Export improvement [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic supply exceeding demand and new production capacity launch [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1640 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1640 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1650 (0), and the FOB China price is 2842 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1638 (-16), the UR05 contract is 1711 (-17), and the UR09 contract is 1722 (-12) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7570 (+387), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.437 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 100,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show corresponding changes. The import dependence of PP ranges from 10.2% to 19.3%. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - As the reserve demand and export stocking progress, the short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also boosted demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, leading to a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened. The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downward space due to export policies and cost support, and no significant upward - driving factors in the short term. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: With the progress of reserve demand and export stocking, short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also driven up demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, resulting in a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The enterprise operation rate is 83.91%, a 0.17% decrease from the previous period, but it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. The daily production is 20.15 tons, expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The enterprise's advance orders are 7.12 days, a 0.59 - day decrease from the previous period [12]. - **Demand**: The profits of all production processes are at a low level. The compound fertilizer operation rate is 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous period, and it will continue to increase seasonally. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Currently, the domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton decrease from the previous period, due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking. The port inventory is 10 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from the previous period, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. - **Market Logic**: The combination of reserve demand and export benefits has led to a reduction in high - level enterprise inventory, and the supply - demand has slightly improved. However, the absolute inventory level of enterprises is still high, and the price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts have changed, with the 09 contract decreasing by 14, the 01 contract increasing by 2, and the 05 contract increasing by 1. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads have also changed [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have increased to varying degrees, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased, but the profits of compound fertilizers and melamine have changed differently [13]. - **International Market**: The international prices of urea have increased, and the export profit has reached a high level [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The production profit is at a low level but has slightly rebounded [30]. - **Inventory** - **Enterprise Inventory**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, mainly due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking [12]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operation Rate**: The urea operation rate has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year [41]. - **Device Maintenance** - **Current Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a certain amount of production loss [44]. - **Planned Maintenance**: Some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: The consumption of urea shows certain seasonal characteristics [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operation rate of compound fertilizers is mainly increasing seasonally, and the profit has changed [53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources have changed [56]. - **Melamine**: The operation rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume has also changed [59]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports [67]. - **Export**: The export profit is at a high level, and the export volume has changed [77]. 3.6. Options - Related - The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of urea options have changed, which can reflect the market's expectations and sentiment [91][97]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics, which help to understand the overall structure and characteristics of the urea industry [100][102][104].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated November 21, 2025, prepared by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, with the short - term agricultural demand weakening and industrial demand being neutral to weak. However, the improvement in exports has boosted the market sentiment, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Group 4: Detailed Summaries Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is neutral to weak. With the commissioning of new production capacity in mid - month, supply pressure increases again. Export margin has improved, but the overall supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the deliverable is 1630 (+0), and the fundamentals are overall neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 33, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.0%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main positions**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is neutral to weak, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the improvement in exports has boosted the market sentiment. The overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand, and it is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting Urea - **Positive factors**: Export improvement [5] - **Negative factors**: Domestic supply exceeding demand and new production capacity launch [5] - **Main logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Market Data - **Spot market**: The spot price of the deliverable is 1630, the Shandong spot price is 1640 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1630 (+0), and the FOB China price is 2845 [6] - **Futures market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1665 (+2), the basis is - 35 (-2), the price of the UR05 contract is 1735 (+0), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1739 (-5) [6] - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.484 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 82,000 tons [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with the growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption also show an upward trend, with the consumption growth rate ranging from 0.3% to 17.9% [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has been gradually realized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded, industrial demand is moderately weak. Export volume has increased, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. The domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -58, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has increased, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is neutral, the agricultural demand has rebounded, the international urea price is strong, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR futures will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong, and agricultural demand has rebounded [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic market is oversupplied [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot delivery product price is 1600 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1610 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2732 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1658 (+3), UR05 contract price is 1731 (+3), UR09 contract price is 1754 (+6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 6958 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 79,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is moderately weak, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year-on-year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -40, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is neutral, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the materialization of export expectations has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and rebounding agricultural demand; bearish factors include domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1620 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1620 (0), and the FOB China price is 2741 [6]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1660 (-7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1732 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1755 (+2) [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR01 contract is -40 (+27) [6]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts is 6415 (+1830), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 97,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - **Capacity and Production**: From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E [9]. - **Net Imports and Consumption**: Net imports and apparent consumption have also shown certain fluctuations. The import dependence has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [9]. - **Inventory and Consumption Growth**: The期末 inventory and consumption growth rates have also changed over the years [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have declined from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The UR2601 contract basis is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.7%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are the strong international price and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is slightly down. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak. Export volume increases with large price difference, but domestic market is still oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1570 (+0), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is -74, premium/discount ratio is -4.7%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today considering weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international prices and increasing export volume, but obvious domestic oversupply [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 with an 11.0% growth rate [9]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1570 with no change, Shandong spot price is 1580 with no change, Henan spot price is 1570 with no change, and FOB China price is 2690 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1644 (+11), the basis is -74 (-11), UR05 price is 1727 (+12), and UR09 price is 1750 (+11) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), the UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 11 million tons [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the domestic market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume is increasing. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1580 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1625 | -2 | Warehouse Receipt | 1455 | -1515 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -45 | 2 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 166.4 million tons | -17.6 million tons | | Henan Spot | 1580 | 0 | UR01 | 1625 | -2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 155.4 million tons | -7.6 million tons | | FOB China | 2666 | | UR05 | 1703 | -2 | UR Port Inventory | 11.0 million tons | -10.0 million tons | | | | | UR09 | 1736 | 1 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term price of urea is expected to recover, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be oscillating and moderately strong. Although the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply, factors such as the strong international price, increased export volume, and short - term decline in daily production are driving the short - term market improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports is large but has decreased, and the export volume has increased. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 45, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand has recovered. The international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious, the short - term price is expected to recover, and the UR is predicted to trend oscillating and moderately strong today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: Strong international prices, increased exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1590, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1610, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1590, with no change; the FOB China price is 2662 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1635, down 5; the price of the UR05 contract is 1708, down 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1736, down 9. The basis of the UR01 contract is - 45, up 5 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 2970, down 2318; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons; the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2018, the output was 19.5681 billion, the net import volume was 4.4838 billion, the apparent consumption was 24.0519 billion, and the ending inventory was 236.6 million [9]. - In 2019, the output was 22.4 billion, the net import volume was 4.8794 billion, the apparent consumption was 27.2794 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.6 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9]. - In 2020, the output was 25.8098 billion, the net import volume was 6.1912 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.001 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.3 million. The production capacity growth rate was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 17.9% [9]. - In 2021, the output was 29.2799 billion, the net import volume was 3.5241 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.804 billion, and the ending inventory was 357.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 11.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 2.6% [9]. - In 2022, the output was 29.6546 billion, the net import volume was 3.3537 billion, the apparent consumption was 33.0083 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 0.3% [9]. - In 2023, the output was 31.9359 billion, the net import volume was 2.9313 billion, the apparent consumption was 34.8672 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.5 million. The production capacity growth rate was 14.1%, and the consumption growth rate was 5.9% [9]. - In 2024, the output was 34.25 billion, the net import volume was 3.6 billion, the apparent consumption was 37.85 billion, and the ending inventory was 514 million. The production capacity growth rate was 13.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% [9]. - In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 49.06 billion, with a production capacity growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea market is still in a situation of significant oversupply. Although the international urea price is strong, it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the urea main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Positive Factors - International prices are strong [5] Negative Factors - High daily production at high operating rates [5] - Weak domestic demand [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Analysis of Each Indicator - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are slightly down but still high, with enterprise inventories accumulating in many provinces. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third batch of export quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-40), with a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.686 million tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong but have limited support for domestic prices. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and significant domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | - 20 | 01 Contract | 1609 | - 61 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | - 20 | Basis | 91 | 41 | | Henan Spot | 1720 | 0 | UR01 | 1609 | - 61 | | FOB China | 3097 | | UR05 | 1677 | - 40 | | | | | UR09 | 1701 | - 41 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt | 7017 | - 152 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.686 million tons | + 161,000 tons | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.086 million tons | | | UR Port Inventory | 600,000 tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]