Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand, but the international urea price is strong, and agricultural demand has improved marginally. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main logic is the marginal changes in international supply and domestic demand, with the main risk point being changes in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been fluctuating. International urea prices are strong due to supply shortages caused by international situation fluctuations, which has had a partial impact on the domestic market. The supply side shows high开工 rates and daily production, and inventory has seen minor fluctuations. On the demand side, the开工 rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have been declining, and agricultural demand expectations have turned weak again. The overall supply of urea significantly exceeds demand, and the export policy remains unopened. The delivery - grade spot price is 1880 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 159, with a premium - discount ratio of 8.5%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.12 million tons (+140,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is fluctuating. Although the international urea price is strong and agricultural demand has improved, the overall supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong, and domestic agricultural demand has improved marginally [5]. - **Unfavorable Factors**: The开工 rate and daily production are at a high level, and inventory is higher year - on - year [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot delivery - grade price is 1880 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1880 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1880 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2579 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 09 contract is 1721 (+9), the basis is 159 (-9), the price of UR01 is 1682 (unchanged), the price of UR05 is 1694 (-2) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 500 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.12 million tons, UR factory inventory is 917,000 tons, UR port inventory is 203,000 tons [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面持续回落。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装置投产， 库存略有累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求短期偏弱。 尿素整体供过于求明显，5月中旬尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，内外价格双轨制使得 出口利润高但对国内价格影响小。交割品现货1850（+50），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差153，升贴水比例8.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131万吨（+12.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • ...