尿素，一粒看似普通的白色颗粒，却是"粮食的粮食"，牵动着14亿人的饭碗。 2019年8月9日，尿素期货在郑州商品交易所挂牌上市；四年后的2023年10月20日，尿素期权接踵而至， 中国农资行业正式拥有"期货+期权"双保险。 期货和期权的落地只是起点。这期间，郑商所持续探索尿素期货服务产业、对接国家战略的"最后一公 里"。 2021年初，郑商所"商储无忧"项目应运而生。这一创新模式支持承担国家化肥商业储备任务的承储企业 利用尿素期货开展风险管理，对承储企业参与套期保值过程中产生的相关费用进行支持，帮助承储企业 以市场化手段化解储备商品贬值的风险，提升储备积极性。 一头连着仓库，一头牵着田间，"商储无忧"让尿素承储企业有了稳价的金融工具，也让农户在春耕时期 不必再担心尿素"一天一个价"。 五年过去，郑商所"商储无忧"项目把495万吨尿素、52家龙头企业、23个省份一并纳入期货"避风港"， 助力农民用得起肥、种得好粮，也为"大国粮仓"更添一份从容的底气。 尿素期货稳经营，服务产业高质量发展 作为全球领先的尿素生产国与消费国，我国尿素需求横跨农业与工业两大领域：既要保障农业直接施 用，又要满足复合肥、人造板、三聚氰胺 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.10.10」 尿素市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1580-1650区间波动。 3 行情回顾：节后国内尿素市场整体看空氛围加剧，主流区域工厂迫于销售压力不断下调报盘，部 分企业价格跌破1500元/吨，然低价对下游吸引力度有限。 行情展望：近期国内尿素供应水平波动不大，日产量维持20万吨附近波动，节后因宁夏、山西个 别企业启动装置检修，尿素日产略有下降，但短期日均产量依旧在19万吨以上水平。国内农业需 求较为零散，局部农业需求或有小幅提升，但整体暂无明显起色。工业需求较为平稳，其中复合 肥秋季肥生产进入后期，华北大部需求转淡，企业减负荷停车或进一步增多，预计复合肥产能利 用率维持小幅下降态势。印度RCF再次发布新一轮国际尿素进口招标，但由于我国出口窗口期即 将结束，且后期出口政策暂不明朗，因此此轮印标对国内尿素市场的影响仍需持续跟踪。刚需推 进依旧不 ...

十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 重要事项: 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导人通话同意平等磋 商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑编等需求均出现增长，长假 临近，建议谨慎操作为主。当前PP交割品现货价6780（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-113，升贴水比例-1.6%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存52.0万吨（-3.0），中 ...

| | 尿素早评20250929:供给压力继续提升 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | 变化值 英化值 单位 9月26日 9月25日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 尿素期货价格 山东 山西 | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1600.00 1490.00 | 1674.00 1610.00 1490.00 | -5.00 -10.00 0.00 | -0.30% -0.62% | | UR05 | | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1727.00 | -7.00 | -0.41% | | (收盘价) UR09 | | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1747.00 | -7.00 | -0.40% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | 0.00% | | 河南 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | (小顆粒) 河北 | | 元/吨 | 1650.00 | 1650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in domestic urea daily production is due to the resumption of some previously shut - down plants, and there are no planned plant shutdowns this week, with 2 - 5 shut - down plants expected to resume production. Considering the equipment changes in the current period, this week's production has increased significantly [2]. - The market support for urea is limited. Agricultural demand is scattered, with only a small increase in local areas. Industrial demand is stable, but the production of compound fertilizer's autumn fertilizer is in the later stage, and demand in most parts of North China is weakening, with more enterprises likely to reduce production or shut down, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline slightly [2]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, urea factories are starting to accept orders for the holiday. Leading factories in major production and sales areas have lowered their quotes to stimulate downstream purchasing. There is continued concentrated export through ports, and some urea enterprises' export orders will be fulfilled by the end of this month [2]. - This week, the inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase. Although there are differences in inventory changes among enterprises, the overall inventory is on the rise. Currently, there are few urea flow directions, and rigid demand has not increased significantly. In the short term, it is expected to show a slight increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 301,894 lots, an increase of 1,736 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 46,677 lots, a decrease of 3,648 lots [2]. - The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 7,535, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1650 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, and 1620 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price in Henan is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 387.5 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 417.5 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 51.6 tons, a decrease of 3.34 tons from the previous week. The enterprise inventory is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 81.22%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points. The daily urea output is 190,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly output of urea is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points. The operating rate of melamine is 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 186 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 tons, an increase of 109.21 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons [2]. Industry News - As of September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 4.54% [2]. - As of September 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 49.63 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 3.82%. During this period, there are both cargo arrivals and departures at the ports [2]. - As of September 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 140.15 tons, an increase of 7.15 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 5.38%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 85.58%, an increase of 4.36 percentage points from the previous period [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - **Apples**: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - **Corn**: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]