交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-11-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，综合库存回落。需求端，农业需求受东北影响 回升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比有所回升。随着新疆中能等新增产能中 旬投产，供应端压力再次增加。出口内外价差大，出口较前期好转，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1640（-10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差2，升贴水比例0.1%，中性； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存153.7万吨（-2.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素 ...

需求小幅好转，盘面窄幅震荡 尿素周报 2025/11/22 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 随着储备需求以及出口备货的推进，短期国内尿素需求有所好转，另外复合肥开工的季节性回升也带动需求走高，而供应端 开工小幅回落，国内供需小幅好转，盘面价格窄幅运行，现货底部抬升，基差有所走强。 | | --- | --- | | 基本面 | 供应  企业开工83.91%，环比-0.17%，同比回到高位。 企业预收订单7.12日，环比-0.59日。 需求  各工艺利润均处于低位水平。 | | |  日产20.15万吨，短期预期高位窄幅波动为主。 | | |  | | |  复合肥开工34.61%，环比+4.29%，后续仍以季节性回升为主。 | | |  后续需求关注淡储以及出口需求变化。 | | |  基差有所走强，1-5价差震荡回升 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-11-21 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，综合库存回落。需求端，农业需求短期走弱， 工业需求中性偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均处于偏低。随着新疆中能等新增产能中旬投 产，供应端压力再次增加。出口内外价差大，出口较前期好转，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍 供过于求。交割品现货1630（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-33，升贴水比例-2.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存156.6万吨（-9.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has been gradually realized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded, industrial demand is moderately weak. Export volume has increased, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. The domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1600 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -58, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position has increased, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is neutral, the agricultural demand has rebounded, the international urea price is strong, and the export expectation has been realized, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR futures will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong, and agricultural demand has rebounded [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic market is oversupplied [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot delivery product price is 1600 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1610 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2732 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1658 (+3), UR05 contract price is 1731 (+3), UR09 contract price is 1754 (+6) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 6958 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 79,000 tons (unchanged) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while industrial demand is moderately weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded, and comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is moderately weak, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is neutral year-on-year, and the operating rate of melamine has declined. The large price difference between domestic and international markets has led to an increase in export volume, and the export expectation has gradually materialized, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -40, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures market of the urea main contract shows that industrial demand is neutral, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the materialization of export expectations has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices and rebounding agricultural demand; bearish factors include domestic oversupply. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1620 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1620 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1620 (0), and the FOB China price is 2741 [6]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1660 (-7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1732 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1755 (+2) [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR01 contract is -40 (+27) [6]. - **Inventory**: The number of warehouse receipts is 6415 (+1830), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.657 million tons (-0.7), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.578 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 97,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - **Capacity and Production**: From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E [9]. - **Net Imports and Consumption**: Net imports and apparent consumption have also shown certain fluctuations. The import dependence has generally decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [9]. - **Inventory and Consumption Growth**: The期末 inventory and consumption growth rates have also changed over the years [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have declined from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The UR2601 contract basis is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.7%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are the strong international price and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is slightly down. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak. Export volume increases with large price difference, but domestic market is still oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1570 (+0), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is -74, premium/discount ratio is -4.7%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today considering weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international prices and increasing export volume, but obvious domestic oversupply [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 with an 11.0% growth rate [9]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1570 with no change, Shandong spot price is 1580 with no change, Henan spot price is 1570 with no change, and FOB China price is 2690 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1644 (+11), the basis is -74 (-11), UR05 price is 1727 (+12), and UR09 price is 1750 (+11) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), the UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 11 million tons [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - Bullish factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the domestic market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is -45, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6 million tons), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, still bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume is increasing. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1580 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1625 | -2 | Warehouse Receipt | 1455 | -1515 | | Shandong Spot | 1590 | -10 | Basis | -45 | 2 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 166.4 million tons | -17.6 million tons | | Henan Spot | 1580 | 0 | UR01 | 1625 | -2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 155.4 million tons | -7.6 million tons | | FOB China | 2666 | | UR05 | 1703 | -2 | UR Port Inventory | 11.0 million tons | -10.0 million tons | | | | | UR09 | 1736 | 1 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term price of urea is expected to recover, and it is predicted that the trend of UR today will be oscillating and moderately strong. Although the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply, factors such as the strong international price, increased export volume, and short - term decline in daily production are driving the short - term market improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports is large but has decreased, and the export volume has increased. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1590 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 45, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, while agricultural demand has recovered. The international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious, the short - term price is expected to recover, and the UR is predicted to trend oscillating and moderately strong today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: Strong international prices, increased exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1590, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1610, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1590, with no change; the FOB China price is 2662 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1635, down 5; the price of the UR05 contract is 1708, down 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1736, down 9. The basis of the UR01 contract is - 45, up 5 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 2970, down 2318; the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons; the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2018, the output was 19.5681 billion, the net import volume was 4.4838 billion, the apparent consumption was 24.0519 billion, and the ending inventory was 236.6 million [9]. - In 2019, the output was 22.4 billion, the net import volume was 4.8794 billion, the apparent consumption was 27.2794 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.6 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9]. - In 2020, the output was 25.8098 billion, the net import volume was 6.1912 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.001 billion, and the ending inventory was 378.3 million. The production capacity growth rate was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 17.9% [9]. - In 2021, the output was 29.2799 billion, the net import volume was 3.5241 billion, the apparent consumption was 32.804 billion, and the ending inventory was 357.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 11.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 2.6% [9]. - In 2022, the output was 29.6546 billion, the net import volume was 3.3537 billion, the apparent consumption was 33.0083 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.2 million. The production capacity growth rate was 8.4%, and the consumption growth rate was 0.3% [9]. - In 2023, the output was 31.9359 billion, the net import volume was 2.9313 billion, the apparent consumption was 34.8672 billion, and the ending inventory was 446.5 million. The production capacity growth rate was 14.1%, and the consumption growth rate was 5.9% [9]. - In 2024, the output was 34.25 billion, the net import volume was 3.6 billion, the apparent consumption was 37.85 billion, and the ending inventory was 514 million. The production capacity growth rate was 13.5%, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% [9]. - In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 49.06 billion, with a production capacity growth rate of 11.0% [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea market is still in a situation of significant oversupply. Although the international urea price is strong, it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the urea main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Positive Factors - International prices are strong [5] Negative Factors - High daily production at high operating rates [5] - Weak domestic demand [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Analysis of Each Indicator - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are slightly down but still high, with enterprise inventories accumulating in many provinces. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third batch of export quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-40), with a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.686 million tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong but have limited support for domestic prices. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and significant domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | - 20 | 01 Contract | 1609 | - 61 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | - 20 | Basis | 91 | 41 | | Henan Spot | 1720 | 0 | UR01 | 1609 | - 61 | | FOB China | 3097 | | UR05 | 1677 | - 40 | | | | | UR09 | 1701 | - 41 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt | 7017 | - 152 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.686 million tons | + 161,000 tons | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.086 million tons | | | UR Port Inventory | 600,000 tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation in the domestic urea market. Although the international urea price is strong, its support for the domestic price is limited. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The daily production and operating rate are slightly down but still high, and enterprise inventories are accumulating, with inventories increasing in many provinces such as Gansu and Hebei. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third - batch export quota has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (unchanged), showing a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is 70, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory Analysis - The UR comprehensive inventory is 152.5 million tons (+10.4), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish signal [4]. Expectation - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. The international urea price is strong but has limited support for the domestic price. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and obvious domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to move in a volatile manner today [4]. Factors Analysis - Bullish factor: The international price is strong [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot delivery product | 1740 | 0 | 01 contract | 1670 | 6 | | Shandong spot | 1740 | 0 | Basis | 70 | - 6 | | Henan spot | 1750 | 0 | UR01 | 1670 | 6 | | FOB China | 3186 | | UR05 | 1717 | 2 | | | | | UR09 | 1742 | 7 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse receipts | 7169 | - 42 | | UR comprehensive inventory | 152.5 million tons | +10.4 | | UR manufacturer inventory | 102.4 million tons | | | UR port inventory | 50.1 million tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]