• 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求、贸易需求均良好，工业 需求方面，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工回升明显。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1770（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-20，升贴水比例-1.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.9万吨（+0.9），中性； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，预计开工继续回升，下游订单尚可，储备需求有所提升， 库存去库，预计UR今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-2 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall demand is not strong, and the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The UR2605 contract basis and the net short position of the main contract indicate a bearish trend, while the position of the closing price relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is inventory de - stocking, and the negative factor is domestic oversupply. The main influencing factors are international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand, with overall inactive procurement. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. There is a large price difference between domestic and international export markets, and recent information on new export quotas still affects the futures market. The domestic urea market is overall oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1750 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 40, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.3%, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (-5.5), which is neutral [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short - selling position is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the main urea contract fluctuates and rebounds. The industrial demand is mainly on - demand, and the inventory is being de - stocked. The domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Quotes | Category | Details | |--|--| | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1750 (+10), Shandong spot is 1750 (+10), Henan spot is 1750 (0), and FOB China is 2797 [6]. | | **Futures** | For the 05 contract, the price is 1790 (+12); the basis is - 40 (-2); UR01 is 1698 (+4), UR05 is 1790 (+12), and UR09 is 1769 (+24) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 12619 (0), the UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 (-5.5), the UR factory inventory is 101.9 (0), and the UR port inventory is 17.2 (0) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Report Author: Zhu Tianyi from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. However, the overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand [4]. - The UR2605 contract basis is - 48, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (- 5.5), showing a neutral situation. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is a bullish sign. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. Industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, inventory is being destocked, but the overall domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The current daily production and operating rate are stable, and the comprehensive inventory continues to decline. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement, and the overall procurement is not active. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent information on new export quotas still affects the futures market. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis Analysis - The UR2605 contract basis is - 48, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. Inventory Analysis - The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (- 5.5), showing a neutral situation [4]. Futures Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is a bullish sign [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. Industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, inventory is being destocked, but the overall domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Inventory de - stocking [5]. - Bearish factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1720, with a change of + 10. The Shandong spot price is 1720, with a change of + 10. The Henan spot price is 1720, with no change. The FOB China price is 2794 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1768, with a change of + 19. The basis is - 48, with a change of - 9. The price of UR01 is 1682, with a change of + 21. The price of UR05 is 1768, with a change of + 19. The price of UR09 is 1730, with a change of + 15 [6]. Inventory Data - The number of warehouse receipts is 12,376, with a change of - 5. The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons, with a change of - 0.0. The UR factory inventory is 101.9 million tons, with a change of - 0.0. The UR port inventory is 17.2 million tons, with a change of - 0.0 [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The domestic urea market is still oversupplied, with short - term export demand falling. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and de - stocking is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demand is based on needs. The opening rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable, and reserve demand has declined. The short - term export demand has fallen, and the domestic market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 35, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.1%, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea will fluctuate. Industrial demand is based on needs, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand is falling, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is inventory de - stocking; negative factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1700 (-10), Shandong spot is 1710 (-20), Henan spot is 1700 (0), and FOB China is 2732 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 05 contract is 1735 (0), UR01 is 1667 (0), UR05 is 1735 (0), and UR09 is 1701 (0). The basis is - 35 (-10) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 10750 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 106.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 17.7 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show certain trends of change. For example, in 2019, the production capacity growth rate was 8.9%, and the consumption growth rate was 12.8% [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a Urea Morning Report dated December 29, 2025, from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][4] - It provides an overview of the urea market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, and other aspects, and predicts the market trend [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Positive factors include inventory de - stocking; negative factors include domestic oversupply and new highs in daily production. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [4][5] Group 4: Key Points by Category Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate are stable, comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demand is on - demand. The export demand has declined in the short term, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. The spot price of the deliverable is 1710 (+0), and the fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 25, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] - Outlook: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. Industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea market has shown growth in capacity, production, and consumption. For example, in 2019, capacity increased by 8.9% compared to the previous year, and consumption increased by 12.8% [9] Market Data - Spot prices: The spot price of the deliverable is 1710, the Shandong spot price is 1730, and the Henan spot price is 1710, with no change [6] - Futures prices: The price of the 05 contract is 1735 (-5), the UR01 is 1667 (-8), and the UR09 is 1701 (-4) [6] - Inventory data: The warehouse receipt is 10,750, UR comprehensive inventory is 124.6 million tons (-7.2), UR factory inventory is 106.9 million tons (-11.1), and UR port inventory is 17.7 million tons (+3.9) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of urea declined again after the positive factors were digested and the energy - chemical sector weakened. However, considering the current demand, seasonal decline in gas - based supply, and high - level inventory reduction, the downside space is expected to be limited. The strategy is to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Supported by compound fertilizer and reserve demand, the price had been rising. This week, it declined due to positive factor digestion and the weakening of the energy - chemical sector. Currently, demand is okay, gas - based supply is seasonally decreasing, and enterprise inventory continues to decline from a high level [12]. - **Supply**: Domestic enterprise operating rate is 81.85%, a 0.02% week - on - week increase, and is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term. The latest daily production is 19.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.04 million tons [12]. - **Demand**: Reserve demand is gradually decreasing, while compound fertilizer demand is fair, with a 40.62% operating rate, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Future demand should focus on changes in off - season storage and export demand [12]. - **Fundamentals**: Enterprise profits weakened slightly again and are still at a low level. The basis strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread declined [12]. - **Valuation**: Export profits are at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: This week, enterprise inventory was 1.2342 billion tons, a decrease of 563,000 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline from a high level. Port inventory was 123 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons week - on - week, and the speed of goods gathering at ports accelerated [12]. - **Market Logic**: The decrease in reserve demand and the weakening sentiment in the energy - chemical sector led to the price decline, but the downside space is limited [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of 09, 01, and 05 contracts all decreased compared to a week ago. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 1 [13]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: The prices in Shandong increased by 20, in Henan remained unchanged, and in Hebei decreased by 20. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all increased [13]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Hubei increased by 50, and the price of melamine increased by 16. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong decreased by 1, in Hubei increased by 20, and the profit of melamine increased by 46 [13]. - **International Prices**: International prices such as FOB Arabian Gulf, FOB Baltic, etc., all decreased, and the export profit of urea decreased by 76 [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The production profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production all had certain fluctuations, and enterprise profits weakened slightly again and were at a low level [30][31][34]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory continued to decline from a high level, and port inventory increased. The inventory of urea warehouses also had corresponding changes [38][42]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: The gas - based operating rate decreased seasonally, while the coal - based operating rate increased. The overall supply is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the future [48]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out maintenance, resulting in certain production losses. There are also some planned maintenance devices in the future [51][52]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: The monthly consumption of urea showed certain seasonal characteristics [56]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 40.62%, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. The production profit and the ratio of urea to compound fertilizer also had corresponding changes [59][60]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate all had certain fluctuations [68]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine all had corresponding changes [71]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data, and real - estate transaction data all had certain impacts on the demand for urea [79]. - **Export**: The export profit of urea was at a high level, and the export volume and the export volumes of other fertilizers also had corresponding changes [90]. 3.6. Options - Related - **Urea Options**: The trading volume, open interest, and PCR of urea options all had certain fluctuations, and the volatility of urea options also changed with the futures price [98]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: The report analyzed the characteristics of the urea industry chain, including the fertilizer demand of different crops in different regions and different seasons, and the seasonal characteristics of global fertilizer demand [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November 2025, the urea market continued to oscillate upwards. The spot price increased, and the basis was repaired. The seasonal rise in market reserve demand and compound fertilizer demand led to a slight improvement in overall demand. The high - level enterprise inventory continued to decline, and the overall valuation of urea remained relatively low. The improvement in supply and demand drove the price up, and there was still support at the bottom [12]. - The supply in November was at a high level, with domestic urea production reaching 6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 427,000 tons. As winter gas - fired plants shut down, the overall enterprise operation was expected to decline seasonally. The demand showed marginal improvement, with domestic compound fertilizer production in November reaching 4.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons and at a high level year - on - year. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - Although the loss of fixed - bed production narrowed in November as the spot price stabilized and rebounded, the absolute profit level was still at a low level. The basis and the inter - month spread increased as the high - level enterprise inventory declined. The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The enterprise inventory decreased by 190,000 tons in November, driving the basis and the inter - month structure to strengthen. The latest enterprise inventory was 1.29 million tons, and the port inventory fluctuated at a low level, currently at 105,000 tons [12]. - With the increase in reserve fertilizer and compound fertilizer operation, the overall market demand improved. Against the backdrop of low valuation, the price oscillated upwards. The futures market also continued to rise, and the basis and the inter - month spread both strengthened. In reality, the increase in reserve demand and compound fertilizer operation drove a short - term improvement in demand, and enterprise pre - sales increased significantly. Although exports were gradually gathering at ports, the progress was relatively slow, and the port inventory increased slightly. In terms of supply, the operation of gas - made plants continued to decline seasonally, while that of coal - made plants changed little. In the future, the overall supply was expected to decline seasonally. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand led to a continuous decline in enterprise inventory, and the overall supply - demand situation of urea improved. There was support from export policies and costs at the bottom, and the downward space was limited. It was expected to build a bottom through oscillation under low valuation. In the future, demand should mainly focus on export and off - season storage demand, and the supply side should focus on winter gas - fired plant shutdowns and cost support. In terms of strategy, it was recommended to consider long - position allocation at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In November, the market mainly oscillated upwards. The spot price increased, and the basis was repaired. The seasonal rise in reserve demand and compound fertilizer demand led to a slight improvement in overall demand, and the high - level enterprise inventory continued to decline [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In November, domestic urea production was 6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 427,000 tons. As winter gas - fired plants shut down, the overall enterprise operation was expected to decline seasonally [12]. - **Demand**: Domestic compound fertilizer production in November was 4.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 tons and at a high level year - on - year. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - **Profit**: Although the loss of fixed - bed production narrowed in November as the spot price stabilized and rebounded, the absolute profit level was still at a low level [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit was high, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The enterprise inventory decreased by 190,000 tons in November, driving the basis and the inter - month structure to strengthen. The latest enterprise inventory was 1.29 million tons, and the port inventory fluctuated at a low level, currently at 105,000 tons [12]. - **Market Logic**: The increase in reserve fertilizer and compound fertilizer operation led to an improvement in overall market demand. Against the backdrop of low valuation, the price oscillated upwards. The futures market also continued to rise, and the basis and the inter - month spread both strengthened [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position allocation opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The report provides price data for futures contracts (such as 09, 01, 05 contracts), domestic spot markets in different regions (Shandong, Henan, Hebei, etc.), downstream products (compound fertilizer, melamine), and international prices. It also shows changes in basis, inter - month spreads, and export profits [13]. - **Graphical Analysis**: Includes graphs of 01 basis seasonality, Shandong urea spot market price, urea 1 - 5 spread, and urea term structure, etc., to help analyze the periodic and spot market conditions [23][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The loss of fixed - bed production has narrowed, and graphs of fixed - bed profit, water - coal slurry profit, and gas - head production profit are provided [32]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is at a high level and is in the process of de - stocking. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Graphs of enterprise inventory, port inventory, and inventory change deduction are provided [38][43][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Urea Operation**: The operation of gas - made plants will start to decline seasonally. Graphs of urea operation, gas - head operation, and device maintenance loss are provided [48][49]. - **Device Maintenance**: Lists information on urea maintenance devices (including enterprise names, production capacities, raw materials, models, shutdown dates, start - up dates, production loss, and reasons for shutdown) and planned maintenance devices [50][51]. - **Enterprise Pre - sales and Production Deduction**: Graphs of main - producing area enterprise pre - sales orders and monthly production deduction are provided [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Deduction**: Graphs of monthly consumption and downstream demand proportion are provided [56]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operation of compound fertilizer shows a seasonal upward trend. Graphs of compound fertilizer operation rate, production profit, and nitrogen source price ratio are provided [58][59][62]. - **Melamine**: Graphs of melamine operation, profit, and export volume are provided [64][65][67]. - **Terminal Demand**: Graphs of plywood export volume, housing start - up and completion, and 5 - day average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities are provided [73][77]. - **Export**: The export profit is at a high level. Graphs of urea export volume, export profit, and export volume of other nitrogen - containing fertilizers are provided [83][84][85]. 3.6 Option - Related - **Urea Option**: Graphs of urea option position, trading volume, position PCR, trading PCR, and option volatility are provided [92][94][102]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind map, and industry chain characteristics are provided [105][107][109]. - **Fertilizer Demand Seasonality**: Analyzes the fertilizer demand seasonality of different regions and countries, and summarizes the overall characteristics of global and domestic fertilizer demand seasonality [112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the urea market will experience a volatile trend today. Although there is a recent increase in agricultural demand and inventory reduction is boosting market sentiment, the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates have rebounded to recent highs, while comprehensive inventory has declined, showing an obvious destocking pattern. Agricultural demand has increased recently, and industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have both increased year-on-year. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports, combined with inventory destocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -7, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral situation [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. Industrial demand is based on needs, and agricultural demand has increased recently. Inventory destocking has boosted market sentiment. However, the overall oversupply in the domestic market remains obvious, and the UR is expected to trend in a volatile manner today [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido**: Inventory destocking [5]. - **Likong**: The domestic market is oversupplied, and daily production continues to reach new highs [5]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - **Main Risk Point**: Changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract | Futures Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1687 | 12 | | Shandong Spot | 1680 | -10 | Basis | -7 | -12 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | UR01 | 1687 | 12 | | FOB China | 2810 | | UR05 | 1752 | 8 | | | | | UR09 | 1768 | 5 | [6] Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded to recent highs, and the comprehensive inventory has declined with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural demand has increased recently, while the industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The opening rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased year - on - year. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, combined with inventory de - stocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today. [4] - The bullish factors for urea are inventory de - stocking, while the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and continuous new highs in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are at recent highs, inventory is decreasing, agricultural demand is rising, industrial demand is based on needs, and there is an export price difference. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), with neutral fundamentals. [4] - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral. [4] - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), bearish. [4] - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. [4] - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. [4] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region/Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | +20 | | Shandong Spot | 1690 | +20 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | | FOB China | 2811 | - | | 01 Contract | 1675 | -2 | | UR05 | 1744 | +1 | | UR09 | 1763 | +6 | | Basis (UR2601) | 5 | +22 | | Warehouse Receipt | 7,937 | +350 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory (10,000 tons) | 146.4 | -7.3 | | UR Manufacturer Inventory (10,000 tons) | 136.4 | - | | UR Port Inventory (10,000 tons) | 10 | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | 1,956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]