交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 尿素早报 2026-1-8 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存继续回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，整体采购并不积极，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳，储备需求继续放 缓。出口内外价差大，近期新增出口配额等信息对盘面仍有影响，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交 割品现货1750（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-40，升贴水比例-2.3%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.1万吨（-5.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-1-6 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存继续回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，整体采购并不积极，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳，储备需求继续放 缓。出口内外价差大，近期新增出口配额等信息对盘面仍有影响，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交 割品现货1720（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-48，升贴水比例-2.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存119.1万吨（-5.5），中性； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, urea prices continued to oscillate and search for a bottom, with frequent rapid rebounds. Supply remained high, and production increased year - on - year. In 2026, supply is expected to grow further, with a potential 3.5% increase in capacity and a 3.5% increase in production, or 2 - 2.5% if prices fall. Agricultural demand is expected to rise by 2.67%. Domestic industrial demand may remain weak, with a 2% decline in melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin demand. Urea export policies may continue, but the stimulus from exports is weakening. Without unexpected export demand, urea prices will slowly decline until production shows negative feedback [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - In 2025, urea prices oscillated downward. Key factors included continuous domestic capacity expansion (355 million tons in 2025, 317 million tons expected in 2026, and 600 million tons from 2027 - 2028), decent agricultural demand during peak seasons, changes in export policies, and stable industrial demand [12][14]. - Quarterly events included winter gas restrictions and rising international natural gas prices in Q3, which pushed up international nitrogen fertilizer prices. There were also factors such as spring plowing demand, changes in compound fertilizer export policies, and the start of summer demand [10]. Capacity Trends - China's urea is in a capacity expansion cycle. In 2025, net new capacity was 4.18 million tons, and 2.94 million tons are expected in 2026. Future plans involve adding about 14 million tons and removing 3 - 5 million tons in the next three years, resulting in a net increase of 9 - 11 million tons [19][24]. - Some fixed - bed processes using anthracite are being phased out, with about 13.61 million tons of such capacity (18% of the total) likely to be eliminated in the next five years [24]. Production and Profitability - In 2025, gas - based urea production was unprofitable, but production was not significantly affected due to planned gas supply and export quota support. However, long - term low prices may lead to reduced production [28]. - In 2026, urea production is expected to increase by 3.6%. But due to limited room for increasing the production rate and low prices for gas - based production, the increase in production may be less than the increase in capacity. If prices fall, output growth may drop to 2.3% [34][39]. Nitrogen Fertilizer Market - Production of nitrogen - containing fertilizers has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2025, synthetic ammonia production is expected to be 34.5% higher than in 2022. Urea remains cost - effective compared to other nitrogen fertilizers, but the substitution demand has decreased [49][53]. - Ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate markets are moving towards a more balanced supply, with supply increasing and the substitution demand for urea limited. The substitution of ammonium sulfate for urea exports may weaken [54][60][62]. - Overall nitrogen fertilizer supply has increased significantly. In 2025, the total nitrogen - containing output of nitrogen fertilizers is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10%. However, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have weakened, and future export momentum may decline [64][66]. Demand Trends - Agricultural demand is expected to continue to grow moderately. From 2020 - 2024, grain sowing area and production increased. Policies aim to increase grain production by 100 billion jin by 2030. In 2026, agricultural and other demand is expected to rise by 2.7%, and compound fertilizer demand may increase by 1.7% [70][82][85]. - Industrial demand is related to the real - estate market and furniture exports. With weak real - estate demand and falling furniture export prices, the demand for melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin is expected to decline by 2% in 2026 [88][97]. Export Situation - Export policies are crucial. Historically, policies have changed frequently. In 2025, export policies were relaxed through quotas, and exports may reach 4.76 million tons, with a possible increase to 5 million tons in 2026. India's import demand may decrease, while non - China and India regions are expected to add 4 million tons of new capacity in 2026. Export profit remains high, and the quota system is expected to continue in 2026 [102][111][113][116]. Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic new capacity will continue to be put into operation. Without considering production cuts due to losses, urea production is expected to increase by about 2.54 million tons (3.7%). Demand is expected to see a 2.7% increase in agricultural and other sectors, a 1.7% increase in compound fertilizers, a 2% decrease in industrial demand, and stable or increasing exports. Overall, supply may slightly exceed demand, but there is still a possibility of short - term strength due to export policies [120][121].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-30 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 2、日产继续新高 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1700 | -10 | 05合约 | 1735 | 0 | 仓 单 | 10750 | 0 | | 山东现货 | 1710 | -20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳，储备需求回落。出口内外价差大，近 期出口配额企业多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1710 （+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-25，升贴水比例-1.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存124.6万吨（-7.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，工业需求按需为主，库存去库，短期出口需求回落，国内 整体供过于求仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 2、日产继续新高 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | ...

利好兑现，价格再度走弱 尿素周报 2025/12/13 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 前期在复合肥以及储备需求支撑下，价格持续震荡走高，本周随着利好消化以及能化板块的集体走弱，尿素价格再度出现回 | | --- | --- | | | 落，目前需求尚可，气头供应季节性回落，企业库存延续高位去化，预计下方空间有限。 供应  国内企业开工81.85%，环比+0.02%，短期预计高位震荡为主。 | | |  最新日产19.59万吨，同比增1.04万吨。 | | |  储备需求逐步回落，复合肥需求尚可，本周40.62%，环比提升0.09%。 需求 | | |  后续需求关注淡储以及出口需求变化。 | | 基本面 |  企业利润再度小幅走弱，目前绝对水平依旧处于低位。 | | |  基差走强，1-5价差回落。 | | | 估值  出口利润高 ...

需求回升，企业库存延续去化 尿素月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 行情回顾 | 11月市场延续震荡上行为主，现货上涨修复基差，市场储备需求以及复合肥需求的季节性走高带来整体需求的小幅好转，企 | | --- | --- | | | 业库存高位持续去化，尿素整体估值依旧偏低，供需好转带来价格的走高，下方支撑依旧存在。 | | 基本面 | 供应  11月份国内尿素产量600万吨，环比增12.9万吨，同比增42.7万吨，处于高位。  11月储备需求以及复合肥开工的季节性走高，尿素需求边际好转。 | | |  随着冬季气头装置停车，后续整体企业开工以季节性回落为主。 | | | 需求  11月国内复合肥产量438万吨，环比增76万吨，同比处于高位。 | | |  后续需求关注淡储以及出口需求变化。 | | |  随着 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，重回近年高位，综合库存有所回落，去库形态 较明显。需求端，农业需求近期有所提升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均 有所回升。出口内外价差大，库存去库叠加农储需求提升，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过 于求。交割品现货1680（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-7，升贴水比例-0.4%，中性； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存146.4万吨（-7.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，重回近年高位，综合库存有所回落，去库形态 较明显。需求端，农业需求近期有所提升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均 有所回升。出口内外价差大，库存去库叠加农储需求提升，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过 于求。交割品现货1680（+20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差5，升贴水比例0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存146.4万吨（-7.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹，工业需求按需为主，农业需求近期回升，库存去库提 振盘面情绪，国内整体供过于求仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 2、日产继续新高 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. The agricultural demand has increased due to the influence of Northeast China, while the industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1650 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factor is the improvement in exports, while the negative factors are the domestic oversupply and the commissioning of new production capacities. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalog Entries Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate have rebounded, comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has increased, industrial demand is based on demand. New production capacity commissioning increases supply pressure. Exports have improved, market sentiment is boosted, but overall supply exceeds demand. Spot price of delivery product is 1650 (+20), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -18, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today, with industrial demand based on demand, agricultural demand increasing, and improved exports boosting market sentiment, but the domestic oversupply situation remains obvious [4]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Spot Price | Price Change | Futures Contract | Futures Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1650 | +20 | 01 Contract | 1668 | +14 | | Shandong Spot | 1650 | +20 | Basis | -18 | +6 | | Henan Spot | 1650 | 0 | UR01 | 1668 | +14 | | FOB China | 2833 | - | UR05 | 1727 | +9 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1736 | +4 | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]