交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，企业库存累积，甘肃、河北等多省 库存增加。需求端，工业及农业需求均偏弱，农需秋季用量零散，复合肥企业产能利用率低，未 大规模开工，处于需求真空期。出口内外价差较大，虽有第三批配额落地，对国内价格支撑有限。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1700（-40），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差91，升贴水比例5.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存168.6万吨（+16.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，企业库存累积，甘肃、河北等多省 库存增加。需求端，工业及农业需求均偏弱，农需秋季用量零散，复合肥企业产能利用率低，未 大规模开工，处于需求真空期。出口内外价差较大，虽有第三批配额落地，对国内价格支撑有限。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1740（+0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差70，升贴水比例4.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存152.5万吨（+10.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • ...

尿素月报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 供需偏弱，尿素延续震荡格局 第一部分 前言概要 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【综合分析】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | | | 二、供应分析-新增投产多集中于下半年 7 | | | 三、出口影响逐渐消退 | 13 | | 四、10 | | 月份需求有望释放，宏观层面有望出台刺激政策 15 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 21 | 煤化板块研发报告 【综合分析】 10 月份基本面展望，供应端，检修装置陆续回归，新增产能不断释放， 国内供应整体将持续攀升，预计日产将持续维持在 20 万吨以上。需求端来 看，农业需求整体疲软，秋季肥需求收尾，不过东北冬储连续启动，淡储企 业逢低储备，但出口期限临近，关注政策变动。10 月份尿素整体依旧承压 为主。 【策略推荐】 1、单边：中旬之前偏震荡，中旬之后在没有新政策的背景下高空为主 中旬之前，复合肥开工率平稳，秋季肥陆续收尾，农业需求结束，出口落地， 2、套利 跨期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1730（-30），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差60，升贴水比例3.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差74，升贴水比例4.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of urea is likely to decline but the downside space is limited, with support at the 1700 price level. The reasons include high domestic production and operation rates, weak domestic demand, weak cost support, and the need to focus on the impact of export policies on prices [3]. - In the futures market, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [9]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Urea Trend Review - In August 2025, the domestic urea market was under pressure. Although export policies boosted market sentiment, they had limited impact on actual demand. The market's acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and prices generally showed a weak trend. The price trend can be divided into three stages: an initial rise followed by a fall, a continuous decline in the middle, and a short - term rebound followed by a weakening in the late stage [14]. Urea Supply New Capacity - From January to August 2025, multiple urea production facilities were put into operation, with a total new production capacity of 225 tons and a production capacity growth rate of 2.98%. It is estimated that the total new production capacity in 2025 will reach 494 tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55% [27]. Production and Operation - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea production was 5.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.10%. Although the daily production and operation rate decreased month - on - month due to increased maintenance plans, the overall supply remained high [31]. Urea Export - In July 2025, domestic urea exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a total export volume of 567,200 tons. In August, a third batch of export quotas was issued, with an estimated quantity of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. After adding this batch, the total export quota for the year exceeded 4 million tons [50]. - India conducted multiple urea import tenders in 2025, which had an impact on the international urea market [47][48]. Urea Demand Overall Demand - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea consumption was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%. It was the traditional off - season for agricultural demand, and both enterprise and port inventories increased, leading to a significant decrease in consumption [74]. Substitute Demand - There is a substitution relationship between urea and other fertilizers. Currently, urea has no obvious price advantage compared with ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride, but it has a cost - performance advantage compared with phosphate and potash fertilizers [76]. Agricultural Demand - August is the traditional off - season for domestic agricultural demand. In September, autumn fertilization will gradually start, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [123]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In August, compound fertilizer factories gradually started autumn fertilizer production, with a significant month - on - month increase in the operation rate. However, the shipment rhythm of autumn fertilizer preparation was slow, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate [124]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - In August 2025, the formaldehyde operation rate increased slightly week - on - week. Although domestic real - estate data was not good, plywood exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, which may support the demand for urea - formaldehyde resin [134]. Melamine Demand - In July 2025, the estimated melamine production was 135,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8.48%. The market was weak in the first half of the month and improved slightly in the second half, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak [140]. Urea Summer Storage - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has reduced the proportion of urea reserves, changed the requirements for targets, extended the storage period, adjusted the assessment indicators, and extended the delivery time [152][153][154]. Urea Inventory - In August 2025, urea enterprise inventories showed an overall accumulation trend, reaching 1.0858 million tons at the end of the month, an increase of 168,500 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventories reached a high level in the same period of previous years due to the opening of export policies [166]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Supply forecast: The August production is adjusted according to actual production, and the September production forecast is adjusted according to maintenance plans. The daily production in September is expected to increase month - on - month. - Export forecast: The total export quota for the year exceeds 4 million tons, and this amount is evenly distributed to the second - half months. - In September, domestic agricultural demand will enter the autumn fertilizer - preparation stage, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [169].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production and inventory levels, while international prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has fluctuated and declined recently. The market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, leading to a rise in futures prices, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate remain at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are moderate, and agricultural demand is limited. Overall, supply exceeds demand significantly in the domestic urea market, export profits are still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 94, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has turned bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International urea prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1840 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3102 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1746 (-7), the UR05 contract is 1791 (+2), and the UR09 contract is 1679 (-23). The basis of the UR01 contract is 94 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 6473 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern. The downward movement of the futures price is supported by cost, while the upward space is restricted by supply and weakening demand. Price fluctuations are continuously narrowing, and the implied volatility of options has returned to historical lows. Although the current reality is still weak, the enterprise profit is at a low level, so the downward space is limited. If there is further positive news, the price is expected to break out of the trading range. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Price fluctuations gradually narrowed, and the price closed slightly lower throughout the week. The actual agricultural demand weakened, the compound fertilizer start - up rate increased, and the export volume was moderate. The overall performance was average, the basis of the futures market was weak, and the inter - month spread was at a low level in the same period. It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern, and the further downward space is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of effective positive factors for an upward movement [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic enterprise start - up rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.24%, and it was at a medium - to - high level year - on - year. The daily output was 19.12 tons, and it is expected to rise again later [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. Due to the production of autumn fertilizers, the start - up rate is expected to further increase in the short term. The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the fixed - bed production was in the red. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export is progressing moderately, showing a rather dull performance [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - to - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was low [12]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the inventory was at a high level year - on - year due to weakening demand [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts, including the seasonal chart of the 01 contract basis, the spot market price chart of Shandong urea, the 1 - 5 spread chart of urea, the term structure chart of urea, the position and trading volume charts of the 01 contract and the weighted position and trading volume charts of urea, to show the price, spread, position, and trading volume changes in the futures and spot markets [20][21][23][27]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the cost support will gradually strengthen. The report shows the profit charts of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - head production [30]. - **Inventory** - The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons [12]. - The report also includes inventory change projection charts, such as the end - of - month enterprise inventory projection chart and the port inventory and export volume chart [37][38]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Production Capacity**: It shows the urea production capacity chart and the planned production - start device chart. Multiple enterprises have planned new production capacity from 2024 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Urea Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate has fluctuated and declined. The report lists the start - up rate chart, the planned maintenance and long - shut - down device information of enterprises, and also includes the main production area enterprise advance order and monthly output projection charts [45][46][48][50]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: It shows the monthly consumption chart and the downstream demand proportion chart [53][54]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. The report includes the compound fertilizer start - up rate, production profit, and price ratio charts with urea [56][57]. - **Melamine**: It shows the melamine start - up rate, profit, and export volume charts [61][64]. - **Terminal Demand**: It includes the export volume chart of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, the housing start - up and completion chart, and the 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction area chart [69][70][74]. - **Export**: The export profit was relatively high. The report shows the urea export volume, profit, export region, and sea - freight charts, as well as the export volume charts of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers [80][81][87][90]. 3.6. Options - Related - The report presents the position, trading volume, position PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility charts of urea options [94][95][97][99][105]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - It includes the urea industrial chain chart, the research framework analysis mind - map chart, and the urea industrial chain characteristic chart. It also provides a seasonal overview of domestic and international crop fertilizer demand [107][108][111][113][116].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic supply of urea is still in significant oversupply, with high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased again. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but international urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected [4]. - The main logic for market trends is the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, returning to fundamentals after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled. Domestic supply has high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased. Industrial demand (such as for compound fertilizers and melamine) and agricultural demand are both expected to decline. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 84, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is volatile. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been more liberal than expected, and the domestic supply is still in significant oversupply. It is expected that UR will be volatile today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high开工 and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (+10), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2746 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The 01 contract price is 1726 (-21), the UR05 contract price is 1771 (-17), and the UR09 contract price is 1715 (-11). The basis is 84 (+21) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 3823 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in production capacity, production, and consumption. The production capacity growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that supply and demand were balanced, and urea mainly fluctuated. This week's view is that demand has improved month - on - month, and urea is operating strongly. Although the export port inspection policy has been relaxed, it has limited impact on the domestic spot. The Indian tender price far exceeds market expectations, and the domestic and foreign price difference is huge. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term, but due to weak domestic demand, limited export increment, and export flow restrictions, it will mainly operate with short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Overview**: Some urea production plants are under maintenance, with the daily output dropping below 200,000 tons but still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender price has been announced, which boosts market sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer in central and northern China is low, and the overall demand is declining. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the domestic demand is weak, and the export increment is limited. The trading strategy is to be neutral on the single - side, wait - and - see on the arbitrage, and sell call options on the over - the - counter [5] - **Core Data Changes**: In the 28th week of 2025 (July 10 - 16), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.95%, up 0.36% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 76.37%, down 4.61% month - on - month. In Shandong, the urea capacity utilization rate was 75.70%, up 3.34% month - on - month. In the 29th week of 2025 (July 11 - 17), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.24%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week; the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, up 2.72 percentage points month - on - month. As of July 18, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 800 tons, up 100 tons month - on - month. As of July 16, the average pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.06 days, up 0.12 days month - on - month. On July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a decrease of 7.22 tons from last week. The port sample inventory was 54.1 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons month - on - month. In terms of profit, the fixed - bed production profit was 220 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production profit was 360 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 580 yuan/ton. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton [6] 2. Weekly Data Tracking - **Mainstream Manufacturers' Factory Prices**: Not provided - **Basis**: Not provided - **Regional Spread**: Not provided - **Warehouse Receipts and Spreads**: Not provided - **Urea - Methanol Futures Spread**: Not provided - **Raw Coal Price**: Not provided - **Production Profit**: Not provided - **Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread**: Not provided - **Urea Operating Rate**: Not provided - **Urea Output**: Not provided - **Urea Pre - sales**: Not provided - **Urea Inventory**: Not provided - **Other Inventory Supply and Demand**: Not provided - **Urea and Other Nitrogen Fertilizer Ratios**: Not provided - **Compound Fertilizer**: Not provided - **Melamine**: Not provided - **Urea Export**: Not provided - **Furniture**: Not provided