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2025年三季度经济学家问卷调查显示 股市汇市“双韧性”成共识 财税改革最受期待
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-16 18:37
Group 1 - The survey conducted by Securities Times aims to gauge the economic outlook for Q4 2025, with responses from 61 economists from various sectors, including financial institutions and government [1] - A majority of respondents (54.1%) expect China's GDP growth in Q3 to be between 4.8% and 5%, reflecting a positive sentiment towards economic recovery [2] - The survey indicates that over 85.2% of respondents rated the Q3 stock market performance positively, with scores of 4 or 5 out of 5 [2] Group 2 - For Q4, the economic outlook remains optimistic, with 95.1% of respondents rating the stock market's potential positively, indicating a strong expectation for market resilience [4] - The survey shows that 63.9% of respondents anticipate the annual CPI increase to be between 0% and 0.2%, suggesting stable price levels [4] - Nearly 88.5% of respondents expect the RMB to USD exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.2, indicating confidence in currency stability [5] Group 3 - Respondents expressed a strong desire for reforms in fiscal and tax systems, income distribution, and social security during the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting these areas as critical for future economic development [7] - The survey indicates a call for accelerating the implementation of new policy financial tools to boost effective investment, with 57.4% of respondents advocating for faster rollout [6] - Over 62.3% of respondents suggest enhancing legal frameworks to combat "low-price dumping" and "malicious competition" as part of ongoing efforts to address "involution" in various industries [6]
中经评论:筑牢民生之本,加大稳就业力度
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-10-04 02:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of employment as a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, highlighting that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's employment situation has remained generally stable, with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually, providing significant support for improving people's livelihoods and economic development [1] - A series of employment support policies have been implemented, with total expenditure on employment subsidies exceeding 470 billion yuan and 138.9 billion yuan allocated for job stabilization funds, establishing a national unified employment information resource database and public service platform [1] - The government has focused on promoting high-quality and sufficient employment while advancing social security system reforms, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance for employees and provincial-level coordination for unemployment and work injury insurance [1] Group 2 - The employment landscape in China has gradually formed a system characterized by ample job opportunities, fair employment environments, optimized employment structures, efficient job matching, and harmonious labor relations, supported by a more integrated and coordinated employment work system [2] - Recognizing the challenges and opportunities in stabilizing employment is crucial for promoting high-quality and sufficient employment, necessitating targeted policies and continued employment service activities to address structural employment contradictions [2] - To fundamentally promote employment expansion and quality improvement, there is a need to drive industrial upgrades, develop advanced manufacturing clusters, and strengthen emerging industries, thereby creating more high-quality job opportunities [3]