FICC日报 | 2025-08-26 股债商品共振上涨，人民币汇率走强 市场分析 7月基本面仍有韧性。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩张；中 国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超 预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务院第九 次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。央行周 一开展6000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，8月MLF净投放将达3000亿元，叠加3000亿元买断式逆回购，中期流 动性净投放总规模已达6000亿元，创半年新高。8月25日，国家发展改革委召开企业座谈会，围绕科学编制"十五 五"规划，听取关于扩内需、稳就业等方面意见建议。A股全天放量大涨，三大股指全线攀升，沪指逼近3900点， 沪深两市全天成交额3.14万亿，AI硬件股持续爆发，寒武纪、海光信息再度大涨超10%，地产、白酒等板块拉升。 债市方面，国债期货低开高走，午后继续扩大涨幅，30年期主力合约涨超0.7%。商品 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-26 股市趋势上⾏，股债联动弱化 股指期货：板块⾼低切换不改趋势上⾏。 股指期权：情绪持续乐观，买⼊看涨仍强。 国债期货：债市情绪回暖。 股指期货方面，板块高低切换不改趋势上行。周四沪指高开震荡， 盘中续创新高，量能基本持平。热点板块出现轮动，一是反内卷举措继续 发酵，叠加头部猪企中报成本下降、增加分红，催化农林牧渔、石油石化 行业领涨；二是中国香港的稳定币发行拉开序幕，催化跨境支付板块走 强。资金轮动下，前期热门板块出现回撤，机械设备、电力设备、国防军 工行业领跌，涨停板数量减少，高位股掀跌停潮。由于成交额维持高位， 杠杆资金继续流入，板块切换不改整体上行趋势，我们建议继续持有IM多 单，享受成长风格超额。 股指期权方面，情绪持续乐观，买入看涨仍强。昨日标的市场延续上 周乐观情绪，各品种全线上涨，双创品种仍有上行动能。期权市场成交额 破200亿大关，相比前一交易日上升36.72%，交易型资金进一步活跃。 期权市场各情绪指标均给出乐观预期：持仓量PCR极端高位，且部分品种 上方仍有一定空间；比值PCR各品种继续下 ...

· 国都港股操作导航 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 45,282.47 | -0.77% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,439.32 | -0.43% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 21,449.29 | -0.22% | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 9,321.40 | 0.13% | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 24,273.12 | -0.37% | | 日经 225 指数 | 42,488.00 | -0.75% | | 台湾加权指数 | 23,764.47 | -0.82% | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3,883.56 | 1.51% | | 深证成指 | 12,441.07 | 2.26% | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 25,829.91 | 1.94% | | 国企指数 | 9,248.00 | 1.85% | | 红筹指数 | 4,388.50 | 0.99% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,825.09 | 3.14% | | AH 股溢价指数 | 125.66 | ...

早盘速递 2025/8/26 5. 美联储洛根：银行系统储备仍有下调空间，常设回购工具或在9月再度启用。应继续探讨，以确定继续通过区间形式沟通联 邦基金利率目标是否仍为最优选择。 板块表现 重点关注 焦煤、焦炭、沥青、玻璃、棕榈油 夜盘表现 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.81% 贵金属, 27.14% 油脂油料, 12.33% 有色, 21.08% 软商品, 2.58% 煤焦钢矿, 14.51% 能源, 3.26% 化工, 12.00% 谷物, 1.22% 农副产品, 3.06% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -16.0% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (4 ...

8月25日，国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开企业座谈会，围绕科学编制“十五五”规划，听取关于扩内需、稳就业等方面意见建议。不断完善扩内需政策举措，积极营造公平竞争市场环境，支持企业加快技术和产品创新、增加优质供给，扎实稳就业扩就业、促进高质量充分就业。同时，加强政企常态化沟通交流，点面结合帮助解决企业实际困难，促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。 ...

Group 1 - The recruitment fair themed "Career Guidance for Future Dreams" was successfully held in the Guanghua Zhufang Road community, attracting nearly 50 residents despite only offering 20 job positions, with 10 individuals securing jobs on the spot [1][2] - The event was organized with the involvement of community discipline inspection staff, who ensured the selection of reliable companies and tailored the job opportunities to meet the needs of local residents [1] - A "grid mobilization + precise matching" model was implemented, allowing employment services to be brought directly to residents' doorsteps, enhancing the job-seeking experience [1] Group 2 - The event also provided personalized "support packages" for job seekers, including one-on-one career planning guidance, employment skills training, and entrepreneurship policy consultation [2] - Community staff emphasized the importance of reaching out to special groups such as low-income and zero-employment families to ensure they were informed about the recruitment fair [2] - The community plans to continue hosting similar events regularly and establish a long-term support mechanism in collaboration with local enterprises to ensure that no one is left behind in the employment journey [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of employment as a stabilizing factor for both the economy and society, with Inner Mongolia focusing on job creation and quality improvement [1] - In the first half of the year, Inner Mongolia achieved 123,000 new urban jobs, reaching 68.4% of its annual target, highlighting the effectiveness of employment policies [1] - Employment is seen as a critical support for consumption and market demand, contributing to economic stability and growth [1] Group 2 - The government aims to prioritize employment in economic and social development, enhancing collaboration between market and government to create more job opportunities [2] - There is a need to improve the employment service system and ensure effective implementation of policies to maximize their benefits [2] - The focus is on fostering flexible employment and enhancing social security for these workers to strengthen their resilience against risks [2] Group 3 - Industry is identified as a stabilizer for employment, while entrepreneurship is viewed as a multiplier for job creation [3] - Policies such as tax incentives and financial support are being implemented to stimulate the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stabilizing and expanding job demand [3] - Encouragement of entrepreneurship through improved support services and simplified processes aims to create more job opportunities [3]

Employment and Economic Stability - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of employment as a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods and economic vitality, with China maintaining over 12 million new urban jobs annually since the 14th Five-Year Plan began [1] - The government is committed to prioritizing employment, enhancing policy support, training, and services to promote high-quality and sufficient employment, aligning personal development with high-quality economic and social growth [1] Policy Support for Employment - The "Stabilizing Employment" policy has significantly aided businesses, with one company receiving nearly 190,000 yuan in unemployment insurance funds to alleviate operational pressure [2] - In Jiangxi province, over 58 million yuan in unemployment insurance funds have been distributed to more than 6,200 enterprises, stabilizing over 170,000 jobs [2] - The State Council has introduced seven policy measures to support employment, including increasing unemployment insurance refunds and expanding social security subsidies [2][3] Targeted Support for Key Groups - The government is focusing on supporting key groups such as college graduates, with plans to recruit 34,400 graduates for grassroots service, expected to be completed by the end of August [4] - Policies are being enhanced to ensure stable employment for migrant workers and those from poverty alleviation programs, promoting both local and distant employment opportunities [4] - Assistance mechanisms for unemployed individuals and those facing employment difficulties are being improved, with tailored support plans for vulnerable groups [4] Addressing Structural Employment Issues - To tackle structural employment challenges, initiatives are being implemented to adapt to technological advancements and industry changes, including timely publication of urgent job demand directories [7] - The manufacturing sector, a key area for job creation, is facing challenges in recruitment and retention, prompting the government to promote integration between human resources services and manufacturing [7] - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement training initiative is set to run until the end of 2027, focusing on increasing the supply of skilled labor in manufacturing and service sectors [7][8]

Group 1 - Major internet companies are launching their campus recruitment plans for the 2026 graduates, with ByteDance offering over 5,000 positions, Alibaba planning to hire 7,000, and JD.com offering 35,000 positions [1] - The number of graduates from regular universities in China for 2025 is expected to reach 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 from the previous year, marking a historical high [1] - The recruitment actions of internet giants are seen as a response to the urgent demand for employment opportunities in the current job market, providing a significant boost to the employment landscape for graduates [1] Group 2 - Internet companies are not only increasing job opportunities but also focusing on systematic training mechanisms to bridge the gap between campus and workplace skills, enhancing the quality of youth employment [2] - JD.com has implemented a "Five-Year Growth Plan" for new hires, investing resources in training and customized growth plans to help graduates transition smoothly into the workforce [2] - The recruitment trends of internet companies serve as a barometer for industry development, reflecting confidence in the industry's future and sending positive signals about the ongoing growth of the digital economy [2] Group 3 - The robust development of the internet platform economy is expected to create new business areas and job demands, leading to the emergence of various new roles such as "AI+" healthcare service positions and data privacy protection specialists [2] - Internet companies leverage their technological advantages and platform influence to drive collaborative development across industries, further expanding employment opportunities [3] - The significant number of quality job openings and clear career paths provided by leading companies will help alleviate social employment anxiety and act as a key engine for promoting high-quality employment and development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China will implement measures to stabilize employment and the economy while promoting high-quality development [1] Group 1 - The NDRC's Deputy Director Zhao Chenxin announced the upcoming initiatives during a press conference on April 28 [1]