Core Viewpoint - The increase in the resident consumption rate is a significant goal in China's economic and social development, aiming to elevate it from the current 40% to a higher level, which is crucial for both domestic circulation and China's role in global economic governance [1] Group 1: Current Consumption Rate Analysis - China's current resident consumption rate of approximately 40% is notably lower than the United States by 28 percentage points and also lower than its own peak in the 1970s by 30 percentage points [2] - The service consumption ratio in China is significantly lower, with only 46% of resident consumption attributed to services in 2024, compared to higher averages in similarly developed countries [2] Group 2: Constraints on Consumption Rate Improvement - Systemic constraints on consumption include limited consumer capacity due to income distribution, where only about 60% of national income is allocated to residents, compared to 75%-80% in developed countries [3] - The real estate market's downturn has led to a "money but not spending" mentality among residents, further suppressing market vitality [3] - There is a mismatch in the consumption market, characterized by an oversupply of goods and a shortage of high-end services, which hampers the conversion of potential demand into actual consumption [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations for Enhancing Consumption - Fiscal and tax reforms are essential, with a shift from production-based to consumption-based tax sharing to encourage local governments to promote consumption growth [5] - Increasing direct subsidies to residents and expanding free early childhood education are recommended to address current demand deficiencies [5] - Stabilizing the real estate and capital markets is crucial for enhancing residents' financial income and overall consumption capacity [5]

"提高居民消费率，比简单的促消费难度更大，它要求消费增速持续跑赢GDP增速。"11月21日，粤开证 券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒在"2025第一财经金融价值年会"上发表主旨演讲时称。 他指出，这是国家五年规划建议中首次把居民消费率明显提高纳入经济社会发展主要目标。把居民消费 率从目前的40%推向更高水平，不仅关系到国内大循环能否畅通，更关系到中国在全球经济治理中能否 把"世界工厂"升级为"世界市场"。 40%的消费率"低不低"？ 面对需求不足和外部不确定性，扩大内需成为必答题。 "横向比，我们比美国低28个百分点；纵向比，我们比自己上世纪70年代的高点低30个百分点；结构 比，服务消费占比较低，改善型消费仍待发展。"罗志恒用三组对比勾勒出中国消费的"三维缺口"。 罗志恒认为，我国居民消费率目前处于较低水平，与美国等发达国家相比差距明显。2024年我国居民消 费率仅为39.6%，而美国则长期保持在60%以上，即使剔除医疗和住房因素，我国居民消费率仍低于美 国约24个百分点。 "不过，当前约40%的水平是工业化中后期投资—消费再平衡的必经阶段，不能再简单用低或高评价， 而要看到背后发展阶段转换的客观规律。"他 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a scientific fiscal and tax system as a foundation for national governance, which is crucial for optimizing resource allocation, maintaining market unity, promoting social equity, and ensuring long-term stability of the state [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - The "14th Five-Year" plan suggests leveraging proactive fiscal policies to enhance fiscal sustainability, which is a key component of Xi Jinping's economic thought [1] - The need for deepening fiscal and tax system reforms is highlighted, focusing on the relationship between government and market, and the importance of creating a stable and predictable business environment [2] Group 2: Social Equity and Resource Allocation - The article discusses the balance between efficiency and equity in fiscal resource allocation, advocating for increased investment in public services such as education, healthcare, and social security to improve quality and equality [2] - It emphasizes the use of tax and transfer payment policies to adjust income distribution and promote common prosperity while driving high-quality development [2] Group 3: Central and Local Government Dynamics - The fiscal system should ensure that the central government has sufficient macro-control capabilities while granting local governments adequate autonomy and development space [2] - The article stresses the importance of clearly defining the responsibilities and financial capabilities of different government levels to ensure effective governance [2] Group 4: Safety and Risk Management - The article underscores the need for a dynamic balance between high-quality development and high-level safety, focusing on the sustainability of fiscal operations and risk control [3] - It calls for the establishment of a fiscal risk warning and disposal mechanism to prevent and mitigate local government debt risks [3] Group 5: Efficiency and Fairness - The need for a dynamic balance between efficiency and fairness in tax design and fiscal spending is highlighted, advocating for a combination of economic development and basic livelihood protection [3] - The article suggests that achieving a good cycle of efficiency and fairness is essential for sustainable economic growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a scientific fiscal and tax system as a foundation for national governance, aiming to optimize resource allocation, maintain market unity, promote social equity, and ensure long-term stability of the state [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests leveraging proactive fiscal policies to enhance fiscal sustainability, which is a key component of Xi Jinping's economic thought [1] - The need for deepening fiscal and tax system reforms is highlighted, focusing on the relationship between government and market, efficiency and equity, and growth and sharing [2] Group 2: Central and Local Government Dynamics - The fiscal system should ensure sufficient macro-control capabilities for the central government while granting local governments adequate autonomy and development space [2] - It is crucial to clearly define the responsibilities and expenditure duties of different government levels, matching them with appropriate financial resources [2] Group 3: Balancing Efficiency and Equity - The article discusses the need for a dynamic balance between efficiency and equity in tax design and fiscal expenditure, promoting a virtuous cycle where both aspects enhance each other [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy in promoting economic balance and structural optimization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for sustainable fiscal practices and effective governance [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Direction - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to support major national strategic tasks and ensure basic livelihood [1][2]. - Experts advocate for an increase in fiscal spending, optimization of expenditure schedules, and innovation in policy tools to stimulate total demand and stabilize economic growth expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Investment and Spending Efficiency - The article stresses the need to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal policies and improve the efficiency of fund utilization by optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure [2][3]. - It is recommended to focus fiscal resources on public sectors and areas with high social benefits, such as healthcare, education, and digital economy infrastructure [3][4]. Group 3: Sustainable Fiscal Practices - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as crucial for achieving socialist modernization, necessitating a deeper reform of the fiscal and tax system to enhance sustainability [4][5]. - Experts suggest implementing zero-based budgeting reforms to improve the scientific and precise nature of budget preparation, thereby increasing budget fund efficiency [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening the fiscal and tax system reform in China as a fundamental requirement for achieving high-quality development and advancing the modernization of the country [2][3][4]. Group 1: Significance of Fiscal and Tax Reform - Deepening fiscal and tax system reform is crucial for modernizing the national governance system and enhancing governance capabilities [2]. - The reform is seen as a key measure to address the changing social contradictions and the increasing public demand for economic efficiency, green development, social equity, and regional balance [3][4]. - The establishment of a modern fiscal system is essential for ensuring stable financial support for government activities and optimizing resource allocation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - China's GDP for 2024 is projected to be 134.91 trillion yuan, with the secondary and tertiary industries accounting for 36.5% and 56.7% of GDP, respectively [3]. - The fiscal system faces challenges such as income distribution disparities and the need for a more equitable tax system to support common prosperity [6]. - The aging population is expected to reach 22% by the end of 2024, necessitating adjustments in the fiscal operation model to accommodate demographic changes [6]. Group 3: Principles for Reform - The reform should enhance fiscal sustainability, ensuring stable revenue to support necessary government expenditures [7]. - Improving economic efficiency is vital, with a focus on reducing resource misallocation and promoting high-quality economic development [7]. - Maintaining social equity through tax system optimization and increased investment in education, healthcare, and social security is essential [8]. Group 4: Key Focus Areas for Implementation - Establishing a comprehensive, transparent, and scientifically standardized budget system is critical for effective governance and resource allocation [9]. - Reforming the tax system to adapt to new economic realities, including the digital economy, is necessary for maintaining fiscal health [10]. - Strengthening the fiscal relationship between central and local governments to alleviate financial pressures on local authorities is a priority [11].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of fiscal policy as a foundation for national governance, highlighting its importance in stabilizing growth, boosting momentum, and mitigating risks[9] - The plan explicitly states the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to address short-term risks and maintain economic stability, contrasting with previous plans that focused more on long-term reforms[10] - There is a stronger focus on social welfare and public spending, with an emphasis on increasing government investment in basic livelihoods and enhancing consumer capacity[11] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Transformations - The plan calls for a shift from focusing on deficit rates to increasing expenditure growth, breaking the 3% deficit rate constraint to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy[17] - It advocates for expanding spending rather than merely reducing taxes, aiming to directly stimulate total demand and increase household and enterprise income[17] - The policy structure should balance supply and demand, with a focus on both investment and consumption, particularly in social welfare and public services[18] Group 3: Tax System and Sustainability - The plan emphasizes the need to stabilize the macro tax burden and enhance fiscal sustainability, avoiding a decline in the ratio of fiscal revenue to GDP[20] - It suggests structural adjustments to existing tax policies to improve efficiency and precision, particularly in key sectors like technology and small enterprises[20] - The plan aims to increase local fiscal autonomy by adjusting revenue-sharing mechanisms and enhancing local tax sources[22] Group 4: Debt Management - The plan highlights the necessity of establishing a long-term mechanism for government debt management to mitigate local government debt risks[25] - It proposes the creation of a comprehensive monitoring system for local government debt and a dynamic early warning system for debt risks[26] - The plan encourages a shift from debt-driven growth to a model focused on technology and consumption, promoting sustainable economic development[27]

Core Points - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in boosting consumption and enhancing public service spending to improve residents' consumption capacity [1][2] - The plan outlines the need to expand effective investment, optimize government investment structure, and increase the proportion of government investment in people's livelihoods [1][2] - It calls for the acceleration of the market-oriented allocation of factors and the establishment of a macro asset-liability balance sheet to optimize the asset-liability structure [1][2][8] Fiscal Policy Directions - The plan highlights the role of proactive fiscal policy in enhancing fiscal sustainability [2][8] - It stresses the importance of scientific fiscal management, resource allocation, and budget coordination to support national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financing [2][3] - The plan advocates for the deepening of zero-based budgeting reform and the optimization of fiscal expenditure structure [3][4] Taxation and Financial Management - The plan proposes improvements to the local tax and direct tax systems, including the regulation of tax incentives and maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden [3][4] - It suggests strengthening central authority and increasing the proportion of central fiscal expenditure [4][5] - The plan emphasizes the need for enhanced financial supervision and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management aligned with high-quality development [6][7] Risk Management - The plan includes measures to strengthen the capacity for risk prevention and resolution in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [8]

Group 1: Overall Economic Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session aligns with market expectations, emphasizing technology transfer to industry, reform through openness, and improving people's livelihoods while maintaining national security[4] - The economic goal of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 remains consistent with the long-term vision[6] Group 2: Industrial Policy - Industrial policy has shifted from focusing on technological breakthroughs to emphasizing the implementation of industry, now prioritized as the first order of business[4] - The focus is on integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to form scalable industrial chains, moving beyond merely overcoming technical barriers[7] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment - High-level openness has been elevated from the ninth to the fifth priority, reflecting a significant shift in focus amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.[4] - The emphasis on sharing opportunities and strengthening cooperation with non-U.S. countries is a response to recent trade disputes[8] Group 4: Social Policies - Social policies have been prioritized, moving from the tenth to the ninth position, highlighting the importance of improving income distribution and facilitating social mobility[4] - Key measures include breaking down barriers to labor mobility and increasing the share of labor factors in income distribution to boost consumer spending[10] Group 5: Reform Focus - The reform agenda emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market and the marketization of factor allocation, addressing issues of fair competition and market pricing[11] - The absence of direct references to "anti-involution" suggests a focus on structural reforms rather than immediate measures[11] Group 6: National Security - National security has become a focal point, with repeated mentions in the session, particularly regarding the stability of the manufacturing sector and the importance of technological self-reliance[12] - The commitment to maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and enhancing support for original innovation and key technologies is expected to continue[12] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - Unlike previous sessions, there was no mention of fiscal reform, indicating a potentially cautious approach to fiscal policy adjustments moving forward[13] - The need for further clarification on macroeconomic governance systems suggests that fiscal reforms may still be on the agenda but are not prioritized at this time[13] Group 8: Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, discrepancies in the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and unexpected geopolitical changes[14]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, Henan Branch, highlighted significant achievements in treasury management over the past 40 years, emphasizing its commitment to serving the public and supporting local economic development through effective treasury services [3]. Group 1: Financial Support and Reforms - The Henan Branch has actively participated in major fiscal and tax reforms, ensuring smooth implementation through enhanced communication and information sharing [3]. - The branch has played a crucial role in the reform of the provincial direct management county fiscal system, social security fee collection models, and personal income tax refund processes [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The branch has advanced treasury information technology, achieving full electronic processing of tax revenue and budget expenditures, which has improved the quality and efficiency of budget execution [3][4]. - The implementation of a "zero in transit" policy for fiscal disbursements ensures that funds reach recipients directly and promptly [3]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Emergency Response - The Henan Branch has optimized its services for social welfare, ensuring timely and accurate disbursement of funds for urgent tasks such as poverty alleviation, disaster relief, and pandemic control [3]. Group 4: Supervision and Management - The branch has strengthened its supervisory functions, enhancing the dual pillars of treasury service and oversight to ensure the safety of treasury funds [4].