必须要严格执行交易计划，一旦入场或出场条件成立，立刻行动，让动作同步于计划，快于思想，才能抑制人性弱点的发酵。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250820— 债农：放弃买债，All in大A（+央行继续大额净投放-股市大涨+债基赎回较少±资金面先紧后松=小上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展6160亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1185亿元逆回购与1000亿元国库现金定存到期，净投放3975亿元。 -------------------------- 债市上午半只脚刚踏进KTV，下午又进了ICU。股市：让你活半天，就是活半天，多一分钟算我输。据统计，能躲牛市的地方越来越少了，今天连消费板 块都风光了一把。年初至今收益还负的，恐怕只有债市了。 债市多头看到"中小银行下调存款利率"的消息也只能沉默，空头：让存款搬家去股市来得更猛烈些吧！听闻马斯克正在放弃创办政党的计划，并在下届总 统竞选中支持万斯。债农：正在放弃买债的计划，并在明天All in大A。 -------------------------- 250210 1.8725/1.9025/1.8610/1.8875 +1.35 25 ...

国债期货日报 2025年8月20日 债市再创新低 行情研判： 央行今日继续大额投放，维持资金面稳定，但债市仍对照股市运行。A股今日低开，债市一度延续昨日的弱反 弹之势，但随着午后大盘发力创出新高，债市大幅走弱。短期交易情绪仍旧较弱，市场筑底成功需看到债市 与股市脱敏。近期交易难度较大，思路上不做空，谨慎的投资者暂时观望，激进欲抄底者小仓介入，拉开买 入间隔。 | | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-19 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-19 | 今日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.322 | 102.328 | -0.006 | TS合约持仓(手） | 94194 | 97849 | -3655 | | TF2509 | 105.45 | 105.535 | -0.085 | TF合约持仓(手） | 170809 | 172925 | -2116 | | T2509 | 107.935 | 108.05 | -0.115 | T合约持仓(手） | 227058 ...

彭博社周二引用西部证券分析师的观点发文称，中国股市缺乏散户狂热，可能会限制由人群驱动的繁荣和萧条的风险，从而可能使最近的反弹更持久。“虽然一些投资者正在谈论存款加速流向股市，但我们的观察显示，尽管高净值投资者确实在入市，但大多数个人投资者选择的是理财产品，而不是直接购买股票或共同基金。小额交易量也表明散户参与度较低。” ...

Group 1 - Global investors are shifting away from high-priced corporate bonds, with many asset management firms and top banks taking defensive positions against the corporate debt market [1][2] - The investment-grade bond spread has narrowed to 78 basis points, nearing the 27-year low of 1998, indicating extreme market optimism that contrasts sharply with official economic forecasts [1][2] - There is a significant increase in demand for options to short corporate bond indices, suggesting that investors foresee a reasonable downside in the stock market over the next three months [1][3] Group 2 - Current credit spread levels imply a global economic growth expectation of nearly 5%, which is significantly higher than the IMF's forecast of 3%, causing unease among some investors [2] - The probability of a recession in the U.S. is estimated at 40% according to the IMF, while other major economies also face risks, leading to a low allocation strategy in credit [2] - The U.S. Treasury market is signaling deep concerns about the economic outlook, with bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - Historically, the credit market has acted as a leading indicator for broader market movements, with recent trends indicating a potential market reversal [3] - A significant change was noted as the proportion of corporate bonds with narrowing spreads dropped from 80% to 60% within five trading days, marking a critical shift [3] - Macro investors are likely taking directional views or hedging against the upward trend in risk assets, indicating a change in market sentiment [3] Group 4 - High-yield bonds are seen as the most vulnerable segment in the overpriced corporate debt market, with expectations of rising refinancing costs and default rates potentially impacting the stock market [4] - The risk premium for U.S. junk bond issuers has fallen to its lowest level since 2020, at approximately 2.8%, indicating severe compression of market risk premiums [4] - A downturn in the credit market is expected to eventually pressure the stock market as well [4] Group 5 - Not all market participants share a pessimistic view, as the Nasdaq 100 index recently recorded its largest weekly gain in over a month, supported by strong technical factors and better-than-expected earnings [5] - Market strategists note that when there is a divergence between the stock and bond markets, the bond market tends to be the more accurate indicator of economic conditions [5]

周度报告-国债期货 央行呵护流动性，债市继续修复 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡上涨 国 债 期 货 本周（08.04-08.10）国债期货小幅上涨。周一，受新券利息征税 消息影响，早盘机构纷纷抢配老券，市场情绪偏强。午后有消 息称国开债增发改新发，虽然该消息随即被证伪，但随着股 市、商品市场震荡走强，国债期货转而下跌。周二，上午市场 对于大行买债的预期上升，国债期货震荡上涨，午后市场整体 偏强运行，临近收盘期货涨幅有所回吐。周三，股市和商品市 场仍然偏强运行，国债受大行买债消息影响，对股票走强的反 应钝化，全天窄幅震荡。周四，早盘受特朗普再威胁加税影 响，国债期货震荡走强。午间公布的 7 月出口数据超预期，股 市走强，债市震荡走弱。全天来看，债市延续震荡走势。周 五，早盘受股市低开、央行买断式逆回购投放流动性影响，期 债高开。但由于较为担忧地方债发行结果，市场震荡走弱。下 午地方债认购情绪尚可，债市情绪有所修复。截至 8 月 8 日收 盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分 别为 102.370、105.820、108.610 和 119.250 元，分别较上周末变 ...

格隆汇8月8日丨美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："关税正对股市产生巨大的积极影响。几乎每天 都在创下新纪录。此外，数千亿美元正涌入美国的国库。如果一个激进的左翼法院在这个时候做出对我 们不利的裁决，试图打压或扰乱美国有史以来规模最大的资金、财富创造和影响力，那么我们将永远无 法挽回或偿还这些巨额资金，也无法挽回荣誉。那将是1929年的重演，一场大萧条！" ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the 10-year government bond yield in China is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.80% from August to October, with stringent conditions required for a downward breakthrough [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is anticipated to experience volatility during August to October, with mid to short-term bonds expected to perform steadily, leading to a steeper yield curve compared to the current state [1] - In August, the pressure on the bond market may not be significant due to a peak in government bond supply, and monetary policy will need to support liquidity alongside fiscal needs [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - If the bond market experiences intensified adjustments, the central bank may consider restarting open market operations for government bonds [1] - The focus on preventing capital turnover and managing risks suggests that liquidity is more likely to remain loose rather than further easing [1] Group 3: Future Risks and Economic Indicators - The transition between the third and fourth quarters is identified as a potential risk window, as government bond supply is expected to decrease, leading to a lower probability of liquidity hedging [1] - There may be a risk of rising consumer price index and producer price index as the economy enters a verification period for anti-involution effects [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The second half of the year may present lower odds for the bond market and higher odds for the stock market, driven by the migration of household deposits and insurance funds into equities [1] - The stock market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a gradual emergence of wealth effects, while the bond market's pricing is becoming less sensitive to fundamentals and liquidity, making it more reactive to changes in price expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is likened to a flowing sand dune, beautiful yet hiding terrifying dangers, illustrating the unpredictable nature of market movements and the potential for sudden changes [1][2] Group 1 - The stock market's dynamics resemble a sand dune, where gradual accumulation can lead to significant peaks, but sudden collapses can occur without warning [1] - The metaphor of wind represents the relentless forces that shape the market, continuously moving and redistributing value among different assets [1] - After a market upheaval, the landscape can change dramatically, with previously insignificant stocks rising to prominence while others may vanish entirely [1]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.72% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.133 trillion yuan, a decrease of 26.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,900 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] Bond Market Dynamics - Government bond futures collectively declined at midday, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.59%, the 10-year main contract down by 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down by 0.17%, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.07% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) experienced fluctuations, dropping by 49 basis points, with a trading volume exceeding 2.5 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 21% [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 3.082 billion yuan over the past five days, indicating strong market interest [1] Economic Context - The current market interest rates have risen close to policy rates, suggesting limited further upward movement for government bond futures [2] - There remains a lack of effective domestic demand, necessitating a relatively accommodative monetary environment in the second half of the year to support the economy, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts [2] - Short-term interest rate cuts are unlikely, as the July Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, indicating limited upward potential for government bond futures in the near term [2] Investment Sentiment - The overall liquidity in the market is relaxed, supported by the central bank's 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operations, leading to a decline in government bond yields [2] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, while the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish due to weak economic recovery and supportive policies [2] - The strong performance of the stock market has increased risk appetite, which may exert pressure on the bond market [2] ETF Specifics - The 30-year government bond ETF (Boshi 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [3] - The index reflects the overall performance of 30-year government bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [3]

美联储戴利：股市是衡量乐观情绪的另一指标。 ...