证券研究报告 | 2026年03月01日 转债市场周报 转债分歧加剧，预计资产夏普下降 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（2 月 24 日-2 月 27 日） 股市方面，节后市场呈现回暖态势，主要指数震荡上行，成交额稳步放 大至 2.5 万亿左右，市场情绪整体偏积极；在供需格局及政策推动的影 响下，上游资源品成为行情主线，有色金属、油气、化工、煤炭等板块 轮番表现，而影视娱乐、AI 应用调整下传媒板块调整幅度较大。 债市方面，周初在上海地产新政超预期落地、股商联动走强等因素压制 下，债市连续调整；周五资金面转松叠加政治局会议基调平稳，市场情 绪逐步企稳，各期限收益率小幅下行，全周呈现调整中渐趋稳定的格局。 周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.7877%，较节前最后交易日下行 0.51bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券跌多涨少，中证转债指数全周-0.23%，价 格中位数+1.22%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+3.46%，全市场转股溢 价率与前周相比-4.65%。个券层面，优彩（涤纶短纤维）、双良（太空 光伏）、广联（商业航天）、大中（锂矿）、冠中（环保）转债涨幅靠 前；汇成（先进封装）、微导（半导体设备）、 ...

早盘速递 2026/2/27 热点资讯 1.伊美第三轮间接谈判结束。伊朗外长称，双方在某些领域接近达成共识，下周一在维也纳举行技术谈判。斡旋方阿曼的外长 称谈判"取得重大进展"。媒体称双方分歧仍很大，美方坚持要求伊朗彻底拆除核设施，所有浓缩铀转移出境；伊方提出铀浓 缩在有限年限内停止核活动，之后浓缩活动在受监管的区域框架内恢复。 2.据中国汽车工业协会统计分析，2026年1月，中国品牌乘用车共销售132.9万辆，环比下降32.1%，同比下降8.9%，占乘用车 销售总量的66.9%，销量占有率比去年同期降低1.5个百分点。 3. 据Mysteel，截至2月26日当周，螺纹产量由增转降，厂库连续六周增加，社库连续第八周增加，表需由降转增。其中，螺 纹产量165.10万吨，较上周减少5.28万吨，降幅3.10%；螺纹表需80.54万吨，较上周增加39.38万吨，增幅95.68%。 4.美国农业部：截至2月19日当周，美国2025/2026年度大豆出口净销售为40.7万吨，前一周为79.8万吨；2026/2027年度大豆 净销售0万吨，前一周为6.6万吨；美国2025/2026年度对中国大豆净销售7.6万吨，前一周为 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's State of the Union address highlighted that tariffs have boosted the stock market, with the Dow Jones Index surpassing the 50,000 mark [1] Group 1: Tariffs and Economic Impact - Tariffs are set to replace income tax, indicating a significant shift in fiscal policy [1] - The implementation of tariffs has been positively received, as evidenced by the stock market performance [1] Group 2: Legislative Actions - The "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, which includes provisions for tax exemptions on tips, overtime pay, and social security [1] - There is a noted opposition from Democrats regarding large-scale tax cuts, while they are advocating for substantial tax increases [1] Group 3: Judicial and Political Context - The Supreme Court's ruling was described as unfortunate, reflecting ongoing tensions in the political landscape regarding tariffs and taxation [1] - There is a consensus among most countries and organizations to maintain agreements reached on tariffs [1]

来源：滚动播报 特朗普：股市处于纪录高位。 ...

特朗普：如果股市好那对每个人都有好处。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国总统特朗普重申股市应该因为好消息而上涨。 来源：滚动播报 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美股期货盘中跌幅扩大，标普500指数期货现跌1%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.6%。黄金、白银延续跌 势，现货白银一度逼近64美元关口，日内跌超8%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 格隆汇2月5日｜据21财经，在华福证券2026春季经济与投资策略会上，华福证券研究所所长助理、宏观 首席分析师陈兴团队预判，股市今年还有上升空间。股市的走势和经济增长有时候并非同步，流动性在 很大程度上是市场变化的重要推手。虽然目前名义GDP增长仍然处在底部区间，但是，在居民资产负债 表受房地产拖累，改善不强的同时，金融机构资产负债表的扩张速度尚可，两者之间的背离，就给权益 市场带来了充裕的流动性资源。随着前几年存款的陆续到期，偏低的利率水平或引发居民资产的再配 置，即便比例可能不高，但由于其较大的到期体量，能够带动的资金仍然不小。陈兴预计，偏充裕的流 动性环境，叠加盈利增长的触底反弹，或将带动股市年内再创新高。 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 439.3 billion, and 185 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -113.3 billion, 310.9 billion, and 183 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 71.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 52.6 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 294.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 149.8 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The sentiment in the bond market continues to recover, with the yield on 10-year government bonds approaching 1.8%. Key influencing factors include institutional behavior, real estate policies, and stock market volatility [2] - The liquidity situation is tightening due to accelerated local bond issuance and month-end disturbances, with R001 and R007 rising by 4.3 basis points and 10.4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [2][8] Policy and Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3, indicating a further decline in economic sentiment. High-frequency data shows stable performance on the production side at the beginning of the year, slight improvement in real estate demand, and price differentiation in food and a pullback in the prices of non-ferrous metals [3][9] Overseas Market - President Trump announced the nomination of hawkish member Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed at 4.26%, up 2 basis points from the previous week [4][10] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching a peak, with the total A-share index down by 1.59%. There was sector divergence, with military, automotive, and computer sectors leading the decline, while the non-ferrous sector fell sharply after extreme trading conditions. The average daily trading volume increased to 3.06 trillion, up by 264.3 billion from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the total financing balance for all A-shares was 27,221.87 billion, an increase of 14.679 billion from January 22 [5][11] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In February, the short-term downward space for bond market yields may be limited as the 10-year government bond approaches the lower range of 1.8-1.9%. There is expected to be an increase in profit-taking demand. The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are anticipated to change, with local bond issuance accelerating again. Seasonal tightening pressure on liquidity before the Spring Festival remains a concern. Overall, the bond market's supply-demand performance at the beginning of 2026 is better than previously expected, with insufficient social credit demand and a slowdown in government bond supply growth. The banking sector's stabilization supports high demand for bond allocation, particularly in the long end, which is under less pressure than previously judged at the end of last year. The bond market is expected to show high certainty in the short and medium term, with long-end fluctuations. Potential directional changes should focus on external inflation transmission and real estate stabilization. There are slightly positive signals in real estate in January, but sustainability remains to be observed in the spring. The PPI for non-ferrous and energy prices shows a trend of rapid recovery [6][12]

格隆汇1月21日｜美国总统特朗普：股市昨日下跌是因为格陵兰岛，股市下跌算不了什么，股市将会翻 倍。 ...