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揭秘美国政府关门风险!对美股、黄金影响几何?
雪球· 2025-09-29 13:00
Group 1 - The core issue of the U.S. government shutdown is the inability to pass a new budget, which is necessary for government operations to continue after the fiscal year ends on September 30 [4][5][6] - The U.S. Congress, composed of both Republican and Democratic parties, is responsible for budget approval, leading to conflicts and delays in passing necessary funding [7][8] - Historical data shows that since 1980, there have been 22 instances of government shutdowns, with the longest being 35 days in 2018 [9] Group 2 - A government shutdown does not mean complete chaos; essential services like Social Security and Medicare continue, while non-essential services may be suspended [11][12][13] - The current budget impasse is primarily due to disagreements over healthcare spending, with Democrats wanting to extend tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans seek a short-term funding extension without additional provisions [16][17][18] - The uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown could negatively impact the stock market, while potentially providing support for gold prices due to increased risk perception [20][21] Group 3 - The long-term trends of the stock market are expected to remain unaffected by the government shutdown, as they are driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the fundamentals of technology stocks [22]
泰国准备就边境冲突起诉柬埔寨领导人,洪森发文回击:泰方言行充满敌意
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-08-19 22:54
Core Points - The Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Thailand's legal actions against Cambodian leaders, stating it violates Cambodia's sovereignty and damages Cambodia-Thailand relations [1] - Thailand's acting Prime Minister announced intentions to file civil and criminal lawsuits against Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and former Prime Minister Hun Sen for military actions leading to casualties and property damage [1] - The potential lawsuits could result in arrest warrants for Cambodian leaders if they enter Thailand, with discussions of pursuing charges in the International Criminal Court [1] Economic Impact - The ongoing border conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand have led to significant economic risks, particularly affecting tourism, displaced populations, and remittance flows [3] - Following the border closure, Cambodia has banned imports of Thai fruits, vegetables, and energy, while the tourism sector has been severely impacted, with a 92.3% year-on-year drop in Thai tourist ticket sales to Angkor Wat in July [3] - The border trade has seen a substantial decline, with Thailand losing approximately $83.6 million and Cambodia about $15.8 million in June, leading to a downward revision of trade growth forecasts for 2025 from 3% to 2% [4]